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Realized P&L (30d)
-$1
Unrealized P&L
+$30
Hit rate
51.9%
Resolved (30d)
59
Trades (30d)
691
690 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$229
$229 lifetime
Avg / trade
$0
Open exposure
$46
30 positions
First seen
2026-11-05
last 11-09 07:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
60% 5% +$3
Other
40% 0% -$4
Crypto
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk • peak 235 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8? Yes +20 $1 21¢ $4 +$4 11-07 06:38
Will Junts win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +20 $1 20¢ $4 +$3 11-06 14:51
SPLC found guilty in 2026? Yes +20 $1 13¢ $3 +$2 11-05 07:38
Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $1 12¢ $2 +$2 11-05 08:20
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.9%-1.2%? Yes +10 $0 18¢ $2 +$2 11-06 19:08
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $1 9¢ $2 +$1 11-05 16:17
Will PSOE win the second-most seats in Barcelona in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +20 $1 8¢ $2 +$1 11-07 11:00
Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +10 $0 17¢ $2 +$2 11-06 07:23
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Yes +20 $1 8¢ $2 +$1 11-06 22:02
Will Broad Front (FA) win 6-8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +20 $1 8¢ $2 +$1 11-08 16:46
Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30? Yes +20 $1 8¢ $1 +$1 11-09 04:07
Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 1-9 seats? Yes +20 $1 7¢ $1 +$1 11-05 10:02
Will PSOE win the most seats in Barcelona in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +19 $1 8¢ $1 +$1 11-08 11:25
Will Zumretay Arkin win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election? Yes — +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 11-05 22:37
Will Chuang Ching-cheng win Hsinchu City and Hsu Hsin-ying win Hsinchu County? Yes +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 11-06 01:37
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? Yes +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 11-08 12:28
Will the right bloc win the Spanish election by 80+ seats? Yes +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 11-05 17:35
Will Dave Carroll win the 2026 Brantford—Brant South by-election? Yes +10 $0 11¢ $1 +$1 11-08 13:51
Will there be between 15 and 19 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30? Yes +20 $1 6¢ $1 +$1 11-07 17:30
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-07 11:50
Will Giedrius Dainys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-06 13:19
Poland snap election called by December 31? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-07 19:32
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-09 05:59
Will 150-169 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between November 9-November 15? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-08 13:54
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-08 23:19
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30? No +20 $0 5¢ $1 +$1 11-06 09:26
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election? No +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-07 09:04
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? Yes +6 $0 16¢ $1 +$1 11-07 17:45
Will the DPP win Taipei and the KMT win New Taipei? Yes +20 $1 5¢ $1 +$0 11-05 16:04
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? Yes +20 $0 5¢ $1 +$1 11-05 07:26