Realized P&L
-$192.6K
Unrealized P&L
+$23.9K
Hit rate
72.6%
Resolved
247
Trades
10,921
lifetime
Volume
$10.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$958
Open exposure
$543.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-06
last 10-30 15:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 83 days
Categories
Politics
40%
87%
-$8,194
Other
34%
58%
-$102,407
Sports
17%
43%
-$79,132
Crypto
9%
71%
-$4,835
Tech
0%
100%
+$2,000
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk
• peak 833 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | +158,717 | $154,588 | 100¢ | $158.3K | +$3,732 | 10-26 12:00 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | +132,395 | $122,121 | 98¢ | $129.1K | +$6,964 | 10-26 13:17 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | +145,748 | $127,860 | 88¢ | $127.5K | -$330 | 10-27 07:00 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | Yes | +149,668 | $14,915 | 18¢ | $26.9K | +$12,025 | 10-29 12:50 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | No | +23,469 | $21,855 | 88¢ | $20.7K | -$1,202 | 10-09 06:27 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | +27,873 | $17,531 | 63¢ | $17.6K | +$29 | 10-30 15:28 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | +21,562 | $14,037 | 64¢ | $13.7K | -$345 | 10-30 15:36 | |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583 | No | +10,000 | $8,600 | 100¢ | $10.0K | +$1,390 | 08-21 16:37 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,944 | $9,246 | 97¢ | $9.6K | +$390 | 10-30 15:34 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,000 | $8,300 | 95¢ | $9.5K | +$1,200 | 09-27 13:05 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +8,466 | $7,789 | 97¢ | $8.2K | +$402 | 09-15 21:48 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +7,093 | $6,558 | 97¢ | $6.9K | +$326 | 10-30 10:55 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +9,099 | $1,618 | 18¢ | $1.7K | +$66 | 10-30 14:07 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | +2,376 | $1,093 | 56¢ | $1.3K | +$226 | 10-29 20:36 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | +1,359 | $1,251 | 96¢ | $1.3K | +$48 | 09-21 15:07 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | +39,980 | $1,507 | 3¢ | $1.0K | -$467 | 09-29 19:12 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | +420 | $403 | 74¢ | $309 | -$94 | 10-29 14:41 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October? | Yes | +20,000 | $12,600 | 0¢ | $30 | -$12,570 | 10-02 14:55 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +40 | $31 | 32¢ | $12 | -$19 | 09-22 12:01 | |
| will bitcoin reach 90k in october 2026 | Yes | +109 | $46 | 0¢ | $0 | -$46 | 10-01 10:25 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | No | +0 | -$2,280 | 100¢ | $0 | +$2,280 | 10-24 18:58 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? | No | +0 | -$6,960 | 100¢ | $0 | +$6,960 | 10-26 08:51 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +0 | -$100 | 94¢ | $0 | +$100 | 10-06 08:25 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? | No | +0 | -$520 | 100¢ | $0 | +$520 | 10-22 14:14 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | +0 | $1,000 | 72¢ | $0 | -$1,000 | 10-03 10:26 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | No | +0 | -$3,030 | 100¢ | $0 | +$3,030 | 10-26 04:17 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October? | No | +0 | $18 | 100¢ | $0 | -$18 | 10-05 14:21 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +0 | $11,619 | 82¢ | $0 | -$11,619 | 07-19 20:28 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | +0 | -$12,217 | 97¢ | $0 | +$12,217 | 10-05 06:04 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +0 | $342 | 59¢ | $0 | -$342 | 10-27 13:33 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 122 | $602.6K | 641,636 | 0 | +641,636 | No | +$39,070 | 06-12 18:35 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 519 | $306.7K | 371,235 | 371,235 | +0 | open | — | 08-02 02:48 |
| israel closes its airspace by june 9 | 61 | $300.0K | 267,929 | 40,000 | +227,929 | No | +$7,843 | 06-10 06:05 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 126 | $276.0K | 139,216 | 139,216 | +0 | Yes | +$90 | 06-09 17:05 |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | 212 | $258.9K | 148,203 | 148,203 | +0 | open | — | 10-05 06:04 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 | $217.7K | 173,785 | 50,000 | +123,785 | No | +$128 | 07-09 17:27 |
| fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance | 327 | $199.0K | 211,973 | 149,969 | +62,003 | Argentina | -$88,787 | 07-07 17:55 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 2 | $198.0K | 100,000 | 100,000 | +0 | No | +$0 | 08-10 15:39 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320 | 100 | $195.3K | 143,769 | 143,769 | +0 | No | +$4,720 | 08-28 20:47 |
| israel closes its airspace by june 10 | 59 | $195.2K | 204,010 | 0 | +204,010 | No | +$8,774 | 06-10 15:56 |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1 | $187.6K | 192,170 | 0 | +192,170 | No | +$4,612 | 07-01 06:43 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 201 | $176.7K | 150,000 | 90,000 | +60,000 | Yes | +$9,900 | 09-16 11:47 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 137 | $176.6K | 170,000 | 90,000 | +80,000 | No | +$13,600 | 09-16 06:43 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 47 | $154.6K | 158,717 | 0 | +158,717 | open | — | 10-26 12:00 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154 | 174 | $142.7K | 146,321 | 0 | +146,321 | No | +$3,581 | 08-21 09:56 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 92 | $141.7K | 153,704 | 7,956 | +145,748 | open | — | 10-27 07:00 |
| ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 | 303 | $128.9K | 201,432 | 17,586 | +183,847 | Max Holloway | +$33,033 | 07-12 03:29 |
| israel closes its airspace by june 15 687 | 104 | $128.8K | 90,000 | 90,000 | +0 | No | -$34,556 | 06-07 19:13 |
| israel closes its airspace by july 31 287 | 129 | $125.8K | 109,556 | 30,000 | +79,556 | No | +$1,724 | 07-31 18:07 |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1 | $125.4K | 126,408 | 0 | +126,408 | No | +$1,011 | 07-01 11:14 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 62 | $122.1K | 132,395 | 0 | +132,395 | open | — | 10-26 13:17 |
| us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045 | 72 | $112.4K | 110,000 | 75,000 | +35,000 | Yes | -$13,850 | 08-08 17:07 |
| iran closes its airspace by june 8 | 26 | $109.5K | 69,507 | 69,507 | +0 | Yes | +$29,420 | 06-08 15:21 |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 44 | $106.8K | 340,000 | 240,000 | +100,000 | No | -$1,540 | 07-01 11:14 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | 169 | $103.8K | 80,000 | 80,000 | +0 | No | -$34,018 | 06-08 10:38 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153 | 91 | $100.9K | 103,298 | 0 | +103,298 | No | +$2,390 | 08-16 14:37 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 104 | $98.8K | 50,000 | 50,000 | +0 | No | +$0 | 08-06 06:14 |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 71 | $98.7K | 50,000 | 50,000 | -0 | No | +$100 | 06-09 03:57 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 72 | $97.9K | 50,000 | 50,000 | +0 | No | -$50 | 06-09 03:32 |
| israel closes its airspace by june 8 | 26 | $96.8K | 97,993 | 0 | +97,993 | No | +$1,175 | 06-08 21:05 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||