Strict-Nonbeliever — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$58

Hit rate

76.4%

Resolved

224

Trades

8,610

lifetime

Volume

$253.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$239

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-04 21:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Sports

55% 64% +$23,273

Politics

21% 60% -$6,595

Other

18% 48% -$513

Crypto

6% 30% -$1,312

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+389	$306	62¢	$239	-$66	08-22 21:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$35	98¢	$0	+$35	06-08 00:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$27	92¢	$0	-$27	06-05 07:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5,263	$78.1K	5,838,719	6,370,915	-532,196	No	+$6,964	07-03 00:53
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	42	$13.1K	7,503	7,503	+0	No	-$298	06-24 00:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	16	$9.3K	4,757	4,757	+0	No	+$59	05-04 19:28
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	449	$6.2K	318,476	598,453	-279,977	No	+$1,744	06-22 08:31
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	111	$5.9K	681,186	1,468,100	-786,915	No	+$3,148	07-03 19:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	44	$5.8K	9,833	10,233	-400	Yes	-$4,396	03-01 12:26
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5.8K	0	2,886,933	-2,886,933	No	+$5,774	06-03 14:18
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	42	$5.7K	6,988	6,988	+0	open	—	06-05 07:33
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	139	$5.7K	152,114	152,114	-0	No	+$545	06-21 19:34
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$5.3K	203,000	203,000	-0	No	+$18	06-16 11:07
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	23	$4.6K	4,077	5,012	-934	Yes	+$406	02-23 19:58
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	6	$4.5K	2,379	2,379	+0	No	+$61	05-06 02:59
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	471	$4.1K	26,650	22,487	+4,162	Yes	-$1	06-24 15:26
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	14	$3.7K	1,951	1,951	+0	No	+$61	02-28 02:20
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	32	$3.7K	3,710	3,710	+0	Yes	-$1,926	10-04 21:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	5	$3.7K	2,118	2,118	+0	No	+$21	04-29 22:55
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	43	$3.5K	2,089	2,063	+26	Yes	+$147	06-15 12:03
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$3.2K	0	1,051,962	-1,051,962	No	+$3,156	05-21 09:36
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	48	$3.0K	2,364	2,364	+0	No	-$26	10-04 21:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	26	$2.7K	1,616	1,616	+0	No	-$65	03-01 00:07
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	9	$2.6K	3,130	3,130	-0	open	—	06-05 06:29
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	16	$2.2K	1,217	1,217	+0	No	+$25	03-27 12:39
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	276	$2.1K	53,464	62,003	-8,539	No	+$180	03-16 21:54
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$2.1K	4,087	4,087	+0	No	-$146	07-05 21:46
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	15	$2.1K	1,324	1,324	+0	Yes	+$565	06-17 21:49
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$40	03-26 15:53
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	15	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$2	05-11 15:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	5	$1.9K	807	1,200	-393	No	-$16	05-05 03:32
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	364	$1.8K	39,038	199,783	-160,745	No	+$1,319	06-28 05:29
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	36	$1.7K	450,000	450,000	+0	No	$0	06-16 01:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 21:48:31	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	181	4¢	$8	0x51f1cd…
10-04 21:47:20	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	6,601	1¢	$94	0xefb7b9…
10-04 21:47:07	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0xf8f486…
10-04 21:46:26	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	82	2¢	$2	0x97e956…
10-04 21:29:01	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	BUY	1,546	4¢	$59	0xefb512…
10-04 21:28:43	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	BUY	454	4¢	$17	0x5bc76d…
10-04 21:27:28	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xe8d99d…
10-04 21:27:28	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xa123b7…
10-04 21:27:28	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x9759d2…
10-04 21:27:26	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	141	4¢	$6	0x2b18b5…
10-04 21:27:26	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x297743…
10-04 21:25:02	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$67	0x051875…
10-04 21:23:01	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	BUY	2,000	7¢	$142	0xace926…
10-04 21:04:23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3,037	10¢	$304	0x3fc919…
10-04 13:42:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xcfe771…
10-02 21:31:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xf3a8d8…
10-02 19:47:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	92	76¢	$70	0x82acff…
10-02 19:46:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	208	76¢	$159	0xb67b4e…
10-02 16:32:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	19	75¢	$14	0xf1383b…
10-02 15:44:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x5d3c73…
10-02 15:42:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	509	75¢	$380	0x1dd128…
10-02 15:36:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	181	74¢	$134	0x2ca3a0…
10-02 15:03:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x6d1aee…
10-02 14:51:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	75¢	$29	0x9df8d2…
10-02 14:50:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x84e356…
10-02 14:37:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x31ec22…
10-02 14:28:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x22f15c…
10-02 14:25:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	79	75¢	$59	0x93f73b…
10-02 14:22:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x25193c…
10-02 14:22:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xdcd56b…
10-02 14:18:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xec64a6…
10-02 14:14:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x475a6b…
10-02 14:12:33	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$37	0x561d60…
10-02 14:08:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x2a16f5…
10-02 13:57:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	300	75¢	$224	0x05eebd…
10-02 13:56:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	79	75¢	$59	0xc812f7…
10-02 13:56:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	65	75¢	$48	0xa44156…
10-02 13:56:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,400	75¢	$1,046	0x09c871…
08-22 22:09:18	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x03a261…
08-22 21:44:07	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x2569b7…
08-22 21:41:46	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	28	13¢	$4	0xbb012d…
08-22 21:41:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0xb9d634…
08-22 02:36:03	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	120	9¢	$11	0x8fa2d1…
08-21 17:50:33	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	1,600	13¢	$208	0xa8d756…
08-21 17:37:19	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x25e212…
08-21 15:53:42	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xd9d8a0…
08-20 19:26:03	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	569	44¢	$250	0x7651dd…
08-20 13:42:15	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0x2f1cce…
08-17 20:01:36	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0xb0317c…
08-15 09:05:37	Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	569	40¢	$228	0x3e95fb…
08-14 07:18:22	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	729	32¢	$233	0xf572e9…
08-13 02:11:22	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	83¢	$66	0xecce61…
08-12 01:18:43	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?	Yes	SELL	177	30¢	$53	0x869ba2…
08-11 21:08:15	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,319	1¢	$13	0xe0ad04…
08-10 10:01:15	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x9dd735…
08-10 06:48:10	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x3bbd04…
08-10 03:16:51	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x52d7fd…
08-10 00:39:40	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	23	48¢	$11	0x2bfaa8…
08-09 21:12:01	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x07f238…
08-06 20:06:20	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	429	35¢	$150	0x9f93d7…
08-06 05:47:57	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	84¢	$59	0x64c036…
07-24 02:08:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	181	79¢	$143	0xdea221…
07-23 19:16:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x0a8335…
07-23 19:06:55	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x807b8a…
07-14 18:57:29	Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x638d14…
07-13 15:11:31	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x45f095…
07-12 23:15:52	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x91dfaf…
07-12 12:16:22	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x43c83e…
07-12 02:21:40	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xea92e5…
07-12 02:17:59	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x215631…
07-12 01:42:19	will bukayo saka score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	26	80¢	$21	0xf85dfc…
07-11 10:59:11	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	186	49¢	$91	0x280223…
07-11 03:51:23	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x33e83a…
07-10 21:47:52	will bitcoin reach 75000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	19	49¢	$10	0xb79f5e…
07-08 18:03:04	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0xcb166b…
07-07 17:36:10	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x3a1f86…
07-07 17:12:58	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x29cb4a…
07-05 21:46:10	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,037	2¢	$19	0x13537c…
07-05 21:45:59	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,015	2¢	$36	0x661d02…
07-05 21:45:53	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	55	2¢	$1	0x98cf06…
07-05 20:06:50	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,563	7¢	$169	0xaac079…
07-05 20:06:44	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	104	7¢	$7	0x4f3a9c…
07-05 20:06:11	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	112	7¢	$7	0xc0a874…
07-05 20:06:10	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x17fb50…
07-05 20:06:02	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	306	7¢	$20	0x228127…
07-03 19:25:04	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100,000	0¢	$100	0x3da12d…
07-03 10:44:04	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,655	0¢	$5	0x2be541…
07-03 10:42:52	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x369554…
07-03 10:39:56	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	44,344	0¢	$44	0x09be92…
07-03 00:53:46	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8,776	0¢	$9	0xf72015…
07-03 00:22:50	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	820	1¢	$5	0x1bbe8e…
07-01 21:53:46	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x05ca67…
07-01 21:49:31	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	23	83¢	$19	0xe7f46e…
07-01 21:49:29	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$11	0x53ec44…
07-01 21:49:29	Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	63	83¢	$52	0x0cb613…
07-01 21:35:23	Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	67	36¢	$24	0x509ffc…
07-01 21:24:49	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$978	0x27b32e…
07-01 21:08:07	Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0x86c4b1…
07-01 15:36:40	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	No	BUY	1,000	55¢	$550	0x8483d5…
07-01 15:21:16	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	87	0¢	$0	0xf78104…