Well-Worn-Loss — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

754 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$4.69K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-18

last 08-29 17:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Other

39% 62% -$1

Politics

31% 71% +$6

Crypto

22% 57% -$66

Sports

7% 67% -$8

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+0	-$3	97¢	$0	+$3	08-04 14:22
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+0	-$3	97¢	$0	+$3	08-20 17:46
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	+0	$0	15¢	$0	$0	07-18 05:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	15	$154	110	110	+0	open	—	06-23 18:55
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	12	$127	74	74	+0	open	—	08-20 17:46
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	10	$124	121	121	+0	open	—	06-28 13:45
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-05 House seat?	7	$98	61	61	+0	open	—	08-07 06:23
Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	8	$95	49	49	+0	open	—	06-28 22:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$93	88	88	+0	Down	-$7	05-23 15:05
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?	11	$93	55	55	+0	open	—	06-12 10:28
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	8	$92	50	50	+0	No	+$2	08-01 19:40
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	9	$90	50	50	+0	open	—	06-14 02:21
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$89	50	50	+0	No	$0	05-20 20:44
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	5	$79	45	45	+0	open	—	07-07 22:52
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	6	$78	45	45	+0	open	—	08-29 17:52
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	4	$76	40	40	+0	open	—	08-29 17:52
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	5	$61	37	37	+0	Tampa Bay Rays	+$1	05-18 23:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$60	35	35	+0	Up	+$10	05-23 15:15
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	2	$59	32	32	+0	open	—	08-04 14:22
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?	3	$56	30	30	+0	open	—	08-29 17:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:40 UTC	2	$55	36	36	+0	Down	+$5	08-22 21:41
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?	4	$54	30	30	+0	open	—	06-05 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$51	26	26	+0	Down	+$1	05-23 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$51	27	27	+0	Up	+$1	05-23 13:17
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	3	$50	31	31	+0	open	—	08-07 06:20
Will Chase DeLauter win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	5	$47	25	25	+0	open	—	06-14 21:53
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	5	$47	26	26	+0	open	—	08-29 17:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$46	44	44	+0	Up	-$4	05-23 09:46
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	5	$45	24	24	+0	open	—	08-29 17:52
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	4	$45	39	39	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$2	05-20 21:55
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	3	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	07-11 07:34
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	4	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	05-18 20:59
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	3	$37	20	20	+0	open	—	06-20 09:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-29 17:54:09	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x67f0cb…
08-29 17:54:04	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x8cb9cc…
08-29 17:54:01	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x309e79…
08-29 17:53:58	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	17¢	$2	0x9998a4…
08-29 17:53:57	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	SELL	69	4¢	$2	0x3cffda…
08-29 17:53:52	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x1c980a…
08-29 17:53:49	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xc946be…
08-29 17:53:46	Will Konnor Griffin win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xadb001…
08-29 17:53:42	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x445d46…
08-29 17:53:39	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0x5b83d9…
08-29 17:53:36	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xb3f170…
08-29 17:53:33	Will J.B. Pritzker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x16140c…
08-29 17:53:30	Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x6d4786…
08-29 17:53:27	Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?	Yes	SELL	45	16¢	$7	0x1c8de8…
08-29 17:53:24	Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x8c6f8c…
08-29 17:53:21	Will Phil Murphy be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xe6816a…
08-29 17:53:18	Will Andrew Yang be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xc23d9c…
08-29 17:53:15	Will Hillary Clinton be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xc95f3a…
08-29 17:53:12	Will Barack Obama be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x1d3eae…
08-29 17:53:09	Will Cory Booker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x032f9d…
08-29 17:53:06	Will Gina Raimondo be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x0fa540…
08-29 17:53:03	Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?	No	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x5336ba…
08-29 17:53:00	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x0efa42…
08-29 17:52:57	Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0xd5f80c…
08-29 17:52:54	Will Liz Cheney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4ee58d…
08-29 17:52:51	Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xd5a0dd…
08-29 17:52:48	Will LeBron James be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x099ad6…
08-29 17:52:45	Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x2e2996…
08-29 17:52:40	Will Tim Walz be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xc945b7…
08-29 17:52:37	Will Jared Polis be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x122e14…
08-29 17:52:34	Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe8b053…
08-29 17:52:31	Will Hunter Biden be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x9645cf…
08-29 17:52:28	Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0xa461c1…
08-29 17:52:19	Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	38	89¢	$34	0x3344e7…
08-29 17:52:16	Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x516fe6…
08-28 05:45:31	Will J.B. Pritzker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc80fcd…
08-27 19:25:31	Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9931f9…
08-26 23:54:19	Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x424fdf…
08-26 23:53:22	Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x5dda6d…
08-26 23:52:19	Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xd8e650…
08-26 19:23:01	Will Mark Cuban be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0xbeda10…
08-24 13:17:07	Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x755cd4…
08-23 06:16:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:15 UTC	Up	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0x4fb5cf…
08-23 06:16:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-23 06:15 UTC	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x13c348…
08-23 05:51:03	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x073d9d…
08-23 05:45:01	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x4041ba…
08-22 21:51:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:50 UTC	Down	SELL	23	60¢	$14	0xb48b9f…
08-22 21:50:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x1ede3a…
08-22 21:45:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x711cba…
08-22 21:41:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:40 UTC	Down	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0xb7e149…
08-22 21:41:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x425bb9…
08-22 14:15:24	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0xcc8f49…
08-22 04:03:01	Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0xc96afb…
08-22 02:28:04	Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x8a8f3e…
08-22 02:08:57	Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x7eb18a…
08-22 01:19:00	Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xa0fe08…
08-22 00:44:57	Will Kim Ahern be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x9ad118…
08-21 21:18:16	Will Kim Ahern be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1ce269…
08-21 19:05:04	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x0ec627…
08-21 13:36:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:35 UTC	Up	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x61e0ec…
08-21 13:35:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4e819f…
08-21 13:35:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:35 UTC	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0xf55b09…
08-21 13:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcd4507…
08-21 04:03:34	Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x63513e…
08-20 17:46:09	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	15	83¢	$12	0x2240af…
08-19 20:35:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x16b778…
08-19 20:29:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x385ced…
08-19 01:26:37	will bill hill advance from the ak al primary election	No	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x5991db…
08-17 22:01:09	Will Leonard Krog win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?	No	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x94ffd0…
08-14 06:26:49	Will Leonard Krog win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?	No	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x1c6ad6…
08-12 08:11:21	Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x6fbe03…
08-12 08:03:30	Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x6a78f0…
08-11 22:53:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:50 UTC	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x43f662…
08-11 22:49:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc589b1…
08-11 22:48:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xb9df19…
08-11 22:48:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd8505b…
08-11 22:48:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8c6613…
08-11 22:46:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4c73b0…
08-11 22:46:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:45 UTC	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x7986dc…
08-11 22:44:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x793d67…
08-11 22:42:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x6977fd…
08-11 22:39:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xdde6c1…
08-11 22:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd78962…
08-11 22:33:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0dda49…
08-11 22:09:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:05 UTC	Down	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xbef3c2…
08-11 22:08:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xee0948…
08-11 22:07:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:05 UTC	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x278618…
08-11 22:05:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xd31036…
08-11 10:42:19	Will J.B. Pritzker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xfbd815…
08-11 03:20:46	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x5a7673…
08-11 02:49:27	Will Andrew Yang be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x8cd0d1…
08-10 22:27:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 22:25 UTC	Down	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0xd965f8…
08-10 22:25:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x4e8c37…
08-10 17:45:55	Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	No	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0x8ed8d8…
08-09 21:00:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xdfc97f…
08-09 21:00:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1e17f0…
08-09 20:59:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 20:55 UTC	Down	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x20c088…
08-09 20:57:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 20:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x70c183…
08-09 20:52:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x216a72…
08-09 17:14:37	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xa07350…