Impossible-Thorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$339

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

489

Trades

231,494

lifetime

Volume

$191.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$93

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-18 07:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Crypto

48% 44% $-325

Other

45% 48% +$23

Sports

6% 0% $-0

Politics

0% 43% $-13

Pop-Culture

0% 50% $-23

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 646 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-20	$-6	93¢	$-19	$-13	07-07 11:53
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	-20	$-8	92¢	$-18	$-10	07-07 17:38
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-20	$-16	76¢	$-15	+$1	06-09 13:11
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-20	$-12	69¢	$-14	$-1	07-03 21:07
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-12	$-9	69¢	$-8	+$0	07-03 17:44
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-20	$-12	36¢	$-7	+$5	05-31 13:52
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-20	$-6	26¢	$-5	+$1	05-28 16:35
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	-10	$-5	50¢	$-5	$-0	06-18 17:44
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5)	Hamarkameratene	-25	$-1	3¢	$-1	+$1	07-03 22:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will uconn win the 2025 2026 big east mens basketball regular season championship	14	$565	477	740	-263	open	—	03-07 03:25
highest temperature in nyc on january 26 26 27f	7	$500	502	0	+502	open	—	01-27 00:56
highest temperature in nyc on january 28 24 25f	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	01-29 00:12
highest temperature in nyc on january 28 34forhigher	5	$180	181	0	+181	open	—	01-28 00:47
arg bar rie 2026 02 01 total 4pt5	4	$158	160	0	+160	open	—	02-01 14:11
cwbb myst ndak 2026 02 01	4	$158	160	0	+160	open	—	02-01 18:56
cwbb rich vcu 2026 02 01	4	$157	160	0	+160	open	—	02-01 14:51
por spo nac 2026 02 01 nac	2	$155	160	0	+160	open	—	02-01 13:36
highest temperature in nyc on january 25 14 15f	3	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	01-25 02:40
highest temperature in nyc on january 30 18 19f	6	$120	120	0	+120	open	—	01-31 00:36
epl ars sun 2026 02 07 spread away 1pt5	2	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:13
cwbb bella stetsn 2026 02 07	3	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:25
arg ald ros 2026 02 07 total 4pt5	4	$119	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:32
cwbb incar mcnst 2026 02 07	2	$118	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 16:03
wwoh swi can 2026 02 07	3	$118	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:59
cwbb ndkst neom 2026 02 07	4	$118	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:31
cbb lasal stlou 2026 02 07	2	$117	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 16:41
lal sev gir 2026 02 07 spread away 2pt5	4	$117	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:21
epl ful eve 2026 02 07 spread away 2pt5	2	$117	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:14
epl new bre 2026 02 07 spread away 2pt5	2	$116	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:21
epl bur wes 2026 02 07 spread home 2pt5	2	$116	120	0	+120	open	—	02-07 14:14
highest temperature in nyc on january 26 36forhigher	2	$110	110	0	+110	open	—	01-26 13:38
highest temperature in nyc on january 27 22 23f	6	$101	102	0	+102	open	—	01-28 00:45
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	03-08 03:02
sea tor lec 2026 02 01 lec	1	$98	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 13:05
bl2 ber svd 2026 02 01 svd	1	$98	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 13:05
cs2 ntr glu 2026 02 01	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 05:15
lol hle1 gen 2026 02 01	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 10:12
nhl min edm 2026 01 31	1	$96	100	0	+100	open	—	02-01 05:09
wwoh swi usa 2026 02 09	2	$88	90	0	+90	open	—	02-09 13:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 07:41:30	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x0c1561…
07-18 07:11:49	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x304986…
07-18 07:03:04	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd4017e…
07-18 06:48:04	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xcbd6c3…
07-18 06:37:31	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x33ab4c…
07-18 06:32:21	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3cfcba…
07-18 06:14:18	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 2am et	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x44fe01…
07-18 06:05:16	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x094ecd…
07-18 05:52:13	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xc76bb7…
07-18 05:45:19	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x28efa6…
07-18 05:37:19	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x62c2a0…
07-18 05:17:51	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xd59eb4…
07-18 05:11:58	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x3d9dbc…
07-18 04:20:00	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 12am et	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4b9625…
07-18 04:13:52	bitcoin up or down july 18 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x343a34…
07-18 03:55:45	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0e4974…
07-18 03:49:00	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xada3f2…
07-18 03:41:39	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9e506d…
07-18 03:34:21	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1c9660…
07-18 03:14:30	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x28aa54…
07-18 03:00:24	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11pm et	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x15a40e…
07-18 02:54:24	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9af233…
07-18 02:38:10	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3ef949…
07-18 02:10:48	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe08b20…
07-18 02:05:27	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x98e9c7…
07-18 02:00:16	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb8a51f…
07-18 01:39:48	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x7f5f21…
07-18 01:00:34	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 9pm et	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x58e3c0…
07-18 00:46:58	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa177bc…
07-18 00:36:28	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfc76e6…
07-17 23:45:04	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xe08c31…
07-17 23:38:16	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x9b41f8…
07-17 23:29:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xf79aa8…
07-17 21:44:27	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x1c2181…
07-17 21:23:30	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xdd7418…
07-17 21:17:03	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x665a3d…
07-17 21:02:33	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf2ef9d…
07-17 20:57:45	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xe2ef2f…
07-17 20:57:36	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x1c0396…
07-17 20:57:19	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x85f3bf…
07-17 20:57:10	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x1b4e3d…
07-17 20:56:51	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7da1c8…
07-17 20:56:27	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x89065b…
07-17 20:56:18	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x78a7db…
07-17 20:56:09	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x84967b…
07-17 20:55:42	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xca21a7…
07-17 20:02:18	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xe343e3…
07-17 19:01:43	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc47695…
07-17 19:00:33	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x773878…
07-17 19:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9ea126…
07-17 19:00:04	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3pm et	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa6a5c6…
07-17 18:42:00	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x63325d…
07-17 18:07:57	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xc6cb33…
07-17 18:06:36	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xe69a95…
07-17 18:00:04	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2pm et	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x125eda…
07-17 17:00:18	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 1pm et	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x266cd6…
07-17 16:44:07	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4c0986…
07-17 16:26:09	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x1e7cb8…
07-17 16:17:19	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xa89635…
07-17 16:00:16	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x73f8bd…
07-17 15:45:39	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x0e707b…
07-17 15:30:36	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x51aaa5…
07-17 15:24:45	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x882e00…
07-17 14:53:58	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xb7f3cf…
07-17 14:46:15	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x20b6d1…
07-17 14:34:16	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x49526f…
07-17 13:58:51	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x9486f6…
07-17 12:17:07	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 8am et	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xcbc82d…
07-17 12:00:13	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1f46c6…
07-17 11:34:25	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xc207b3…
07-17 11:00:09	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 7am et	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xecee7a…
07-17 09:30:48	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x2deb70…
07-17 09:24:55	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x342bb6…
07-17 09:23:37	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x39bce5…
07-17 09:19:43	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x811ea4…
07-17 09:01:31	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x975dcb…
07-17 08:29:22	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xac26ec…
07-17 08:22:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6bcbab…
07-17 08:16:58	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x154be6…
07-17 08:10:09	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x31587d…
07-17 07:54:09	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x25554b…
07-17 07:48:58	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x184864…
07-17 07:42:48	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x10c9f6…
07-17 07:33:55	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x5a8e53…
07-17 07:27:51	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x7df880…
07-17 07:15:40	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xf8605d…
07-17 06:28:25	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xa244f9…
07-17 06:22:57	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xeb1511…
07-17 06:01:12	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 2am et	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x2126c7…
07-17 05:17:30	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x695be8…
07-17 05:00:15	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 1am et	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0c831d…
07-17 04:46:00	bitcoin up or down july 17 2026 12am et	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9c575e…
07-17 02:33:06	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x288112…
07-17 02:02:19	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 10pm et	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xa7f18c…
07-17 01:33:20	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x58d6bd…
07-17 01:05:56	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 9pm et	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xb487eb…
07-17 00:57:53	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc50853…
07-17 00:51:46	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x84a7ef…
07-17 00:46:01	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xcae979…
07-17 00:28:07	bitcoin up or down july 16 2026 8pm et	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5543f6…