Realized P&L
-$28.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$9.60K
Hit rate
65.6%
Resolved
115
Trades
2,143
lifetime
Volume
$2.03M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$945
Open exposure
$127.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-25 02:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 38 days
Categories
Politics
60%
48%
-$27,891
Other
39%
57%
-$752
Crypto
1%
0%
-$21
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
31 active days in 12wk
• peak 44 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -32,191 | -$28,750 | 98¢ | $-31596 | -$2,846 | 07-02 07:11 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -25,001 | -$20,251 | 96¢ | $-23876 | -$3,625 | 05-11 00:25 | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | -17,312 | -$16,983 | 99¢ | $-17095 | -$113 | 05-11 00:28 | |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | -15,000 | -$14,475 | 99¢ | $-14865 | -$390 | 06-06 14:43 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | -8,467 | -$6,980 | 94¢ | $-8002 | -$1,021 | 05-12 14:04 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | +8,126 | $4,905 | 94¢ | $7.7K | +$2,774 | 07-31 16:01 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -5,851 | -$5,485 | 98¢ | $-5731 | -$247 | 05-11 00:26 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | -5,329 | -$5,039 | 97¢ | $-5185 | -$146 | 06-08 20:57 | |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +10,385 | $4,004 | 22¢ | $2.3K | -$1,725 | 08-22 07:42 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -2,237 | -$1,767 | 82¢ | $-1845 | -$78 | 05-09 10:56 | |
| will papertrade launch a token by december 31 2026 | No | +2,035 | $483 | 89¢ | $1.8K | +$1,328 | 09-07 10:25 | |
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | +1,575 | $1,061 | 82¢ | $1.3K | +$238 | 08-07 15:10 | |
| Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | +1,689 | $681 | 74¢ | $1.2K | +$560 | 08-01 05:18 | |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | +2,467 | $1,677 | 46¢ | $1.1K | -$530 | 08-16 19:44 | |
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | +1,025 | $450 | 79¢ | $810 | +$360 | 07-06 14:35 | |
| us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236 | No | +803 | $755 | 97¢ | $776 | +$21 | 08-15 18:10 | |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | -691 | -$645 | 94¢ | $-651 | -$6 | 08-14 09:33 | |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | -458 | -$440 | 94¢ | $-431 | +$9 | 06-12 11:22 | |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | +1,112 | $645 | 28¢ | $306 | -$339 | 08-17 09:43 | |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +547 | $431 | 47¢ | $257 | -$174 | 08-12 04:53 | |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | No | +208 | $161 | 98¢ | $203 | +$42 | 08-22 16:04 | |
| Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | +126 | $87 | 96¢ | $122 | +$35 | 08-07 15:12 | |
| will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026 | No | +112 | $81 | 94¢ | $104 | +$23 | 07-28 16:38 | |
| Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | +106 | $66 | 98¢ | $104 | +$38 | 08-07 15:12 | |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | +703 | $232 | 14¢ | $95 | -$137 | 08-16 19:44 | |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | +5,603 | $218 | 2¢ | $92 | -$126 | 10-02 11:55 | |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | +9,187 | $1,205 | 0¢ | $32 | -$1,173 | 08-19 17:27 | |
| Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | +59 | $14 | 39¢ | $23 | +$10 | 08-01 11:17 | |
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | +31 | $17 | 60¢ | $19 | +$1 | 08-14 18:23 | |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,676 | $2,369 | 0¢ | $6 | -$2,363 | 10-02 11:56 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 81 | $173.5K | 109,343 | 92,074 | +17,268 | No | +$6,736 | 01-28 15:42 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 19 | $171.0K | 171,650 | 0 | +171,650 | No | +$613 | 01-03 04:20 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 51 | $151.7K | 76,198 | 81,075 | -4,877 | No | -$2,025 | 03-03 16:49 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 152 | $142.8K | 118,571 | 68,566 | +50,005 | Yes | -$3,530 | 02-01 13:52 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 102 | $121.4K | 104,425 | 64,652 | +39,773 | No | +$9,380 | 01-31 19:10 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 4 | $61.5K | 31,623 | 32,864 | -1,241 | No | -$241 | 01-18 06:25 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 157 | $55.0K | 45,000 | 30,000 | +15,000 | Yes | +$6,639 | 09-20 17:10 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 267 | $54.2K | 57,001 | 56,712 | +289 | Yes | -$840 | 05-08 19:19 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 1 | $50.0K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | Yes | +$50 | 02-03 17:22 |
| us x iran meeting by february 6 2026 | 1 | $50.0K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | Yes | +$50 | 02-07 20:21 |
| will trump talk to vladimir putin in january | 1 | $50.0K | 50,000 | 0 | +50,000 | No | +$50 | 02-03 18:28 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 4 | $46.7K | 27,024 | 20,165 | +6,859 | No | +$84 | 03-10 15:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 26 | $44.9K | 23,550 | 23,550 | +0 | Yes | -$1,080 | 03-03 16:45 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 3 | $37.4K | 5,000 | 37,191 | -32,191 | open | — | 07-02 07:11 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 33 | $35.6K | 19,585 | 19,585 | +0 | open | — | 05-11 14:21 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 22 | $35.2K | 20,000 | 20,000 | +0 | open | — | 07-31 22:02 |
| israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453 | 34 | $33.8K | 23,068 | 23,067 | +0 | No | +$1,387 | 01-15 16:49 |
| will edgex launch a token in 2025 | 17 | $29.9K | 30,000 | 0 | +30,000 | Yes | +$60 | 01-01 12:17 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 63 | $28.0K | 57,009 | 57,009 | +0 | No | +$673 | 03-11 19:39 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 1 | $27.9K | 0 | 30,000 | -30,000 | No | -$2,100 | 05-11 00:26 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 122 | $27.7K | 13,953 | 13,919 | +34 | No | +$2 | 01-16 00:37 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 21 | $26.2K | 9,135 | 19,135 | -10,000 | No | +$1,028 | 03-05 17:00 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 3 | $23.5K | 25,491 | 0 | +25,491 | No | +$1,966 | 02-27 13:52 |
| us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294 | 10 | $22.5K | 19,942 | 10,047 | +9,895 | No | +$3,086 | 01-31 18:26 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 12 | $21.7K | 26,601 | 26,601 | +0 | Yes | -$18,320 | 03-01 05:50 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 2 | $20.7K | 24,000 | 0 | +24,000 | No | +$3,260 | 03-14 11:14 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 19 | $20.5K | 31,319 | 0 | +31,319 | Yes | -$20,514 | 02-27 13:49 |
| us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498 | 7 | $20.4K | 12,039 | 12,039 | +0 | No | +$1,995 | 01-15 15:04 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 1 | $20.3K | 0 | 25,001 | -25,001 | open | — | 05-11 00:25 |
| another us strike on venezuela by january 17 | 7 | $18.0K | 9,139 | 9,139 | +0 | No | +$111 | 01-15 18:14 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||