Rowdy-Innocent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.56K

Unrealized P&L

+$60

Hit rate

9.2%

Resolved

Trades

1,525

lifetime

Volume

$1.66M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.09K

Open exposure

$8.01K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 20:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

63% 50% +$6,556

Other

37% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	-5,000	$-4,850	96¢	$-4822	+$28	06-06 14:43
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	-3,000	$-2,850	94¢	$-2835	+$15	06-08 20:57
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-381	$-366	92¢	$-349	+$17	06-05 06:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	81	$173.5K	109,343	92,074	+17,268	open	—	01-28 15:42
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	19	$171.0K	171,650	0	+171,650	open	—	01-03 04:20
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	51	$151.7K	76,198	81,075	-4,877	open	—	03-03 16:49
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	152	$142.8K	118,571	68,566	+50,005	open	—	02-01 13:52
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	102	$121.4K	104,425	64,652	+39,773	open	—	01-31 19:10
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$61.5K	31,623	32,864	-1,241	open	—	01-18 06:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	267	$54.2K	57,001	56,712	+289	Yes	$-840	05-08 19:19
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	1	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	02-03 17:22
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	1	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	02-07 20:21
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	1	$50.0K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	02-03 18:28
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$46.7K	27,024	20,165	+6,859	open	—	03-10 15:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	26	$44.9K	23,550	23,550	+0	open	—	03-03 16:45
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	34	$33.8K	23,068	23,067	+0	open	—	01-15 16:49
will edgex launch a token in 2025	17	$29.9K	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	01-01 12:17
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	63	$28.0K	57,009	57,009	+0	open	—	03-11 19:39
will israel nuke iran by january 31	122	$27.7K	13,953	13,919	+34	open	—	01-16 00:37
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	21	$26.2K	9,135	19,135	-10,000	open	—	03-05 17:00
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	3	$23.5K	25,491	0	+25,491	open	—	02-27 13:52
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	10	$22.5K	19,942	10,047	+9,895	open	—	01-31 18:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	12	$21.7K	26,601	26,601	+0	open	—	03-01 05:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$20.7K	24,000	0	+24,000	open	—	03-14 11:14
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	19	$20.5K	31,319	0	+31,319	open	—	02-27 13:49
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	7	$20.4K	12,039	12,039	+0	open	—	01-15 15:04
another us strike on venezuela by january 17	7	$18.0K	9,139	9,139	+0	open	—	01-15 18:14
fact check maduro capture staged	12	$17.5K	9,330	8,380	+950	open	—	03-17 08:35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	12	$17.0K	20,000	19,085	+915	open	—	01-15 16:22
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	1	$16.9K	17,765	0	+17,765	open	—	02-26 17:27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	26	$15.2K	17,327	7,327	+10,000	open	—	02-20 18:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 6 419 412 158 246 866 876 465	23	$14.4K	9,718	9,718	+0	open	—	03-06 07:14
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	7	$12.7K	14,122	0	+14,122	open	—	02-15 18:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 20:57:39	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	655	95¢	$622	0xef45ee…
06-08 14:21:36	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x9ec30f…
06-07 22:57:21	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	111	95¢	$106	0x988d14…
06-07 20:57:55	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	111	95¢	$106	0xa1644b…
06-07 07:47:40	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	95¢	$950	0xcddddd…
06-07 06:26:15	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$50	0x8ff611…
06-06 14:43:46	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,850	0xd53ec5…
06-05 19:40:03	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	14	95¢	$14	0x4720f5…
06-05 19:34:37	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	799	95¢	$759	0x0ce75f…
06-05 13:26:37	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	246	95¢	$233	0x099590…
06-05 06:28:07	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	137	96¢	$131	0x81a445…
06-01 14:36:42	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	245	96¢	$235	0xd5069c…
05-09 06:11:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,557	0¢	$6	0x8f2380…
05-08 19:23:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	324	76¢	$247	0x0950d0…
05-08 19:22:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	601	76¢	$460	0x03d0cd…
05-08 19:21:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0xf17663…
05-08 19:21:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	76¢	$68	0xdff802…
05-08 19:21:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x0192c3…
05-08 19:21:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,406	76¢	$1,076	0x17ac03…
05-08 19:21:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,625	76¢	$1,987	0xecda3f…
05-08 19:21:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0xd1e8f7…
05-08 19:19:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	15,000	59¢	$8,850	0x920371…
05-08 19:07:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4,994	55¢	$2,747	0xb56543…
05-08 19:07:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,089	31¢	$1,578	0x56ba3a…
05-08 19:07:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x2c9a8f…
03-28 15:59:57	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	532	100¢	$531	0x3291ad…
03-28 15:25:23	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	500	100¢	$500	0x152ef1…
03-28 15:05:43	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	443	100¢	$443	0x11c17b…
03-23 09:03:57	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	5,271	100¢	$5,266	0x21f381…
03-19 13:30:41	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	562	100¢	$561	0x2eff83…
03-19 09:33:23	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	562	100¢	$561	0x48fb7f…
03-19 09:33:13	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	562	100¢	$561	0x93d42e…
03-19 09:32:51	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	1,032	100¢	$1,030	0x6fba78…
03-19 06:01:17	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	1,590	100¢	$1,586	0x2eaffb…
03-17 08:55:01	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	SELL	4,976	100¢	$4,961	0x02daa3…
03-17 08:35:25	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	772	99¢	$767	0x104340…
03-16 18:35:23	tim walz charged by march 31	No	SELL	1,345	97¢	$1,309	0xcdc1b5…
03-16 18:34:11	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	400	99¢	$395	0xb82b18…
03-14 17:33:05	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	1,225	99¢	$1,210	0x4c53d9…
03-14 11:14:49	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	173	98¢	$170	0x59f6cd…
03-14 11:14:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x231f61…
03-14 11:13:03	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	2,258	98¢	$2,213	0xe5993c…
03-14 08:11:21	tim walz charged by march 31	No	SELL	1,367	97¢	$1,325	0xe882b6…
03-13 14:04:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	14,000	86¢	$12,040	0xb4a8d2…
03-12 19:06:19	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31	No	BUY	280	96¢	$269	0x1e0282…
03-12 18:32:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5,029	60¢	$3,017	0x192692…
03-12 17:51:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x1a1061…
03-12 17:49:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xbb9a8f…
03-12 17:33:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x16975a…
03-12 17:30:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	4,939	60¢	$2,964	0x64b613…
03-12 17:26:05	tim walz charged by march 31	No	SELL	246	97¢	$239	0x5bcdb5…
03-12 17:12:53	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31	No	BUY	92	96¢	$89	0xf8af82…
03-12 17:09:39	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by march 31	No	BUY	127	96¢	$122	0xc42b40…
03-12 17:06:39	Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x5c7b94…
03-11 19:39:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	24,000	5¢	$1,152	0xcae983…
03-11 18:56:41	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	93	98¢	$91	0x76428c…
03-11 05:16:31	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	2,203	99¢	$2,185	0x168e1f…
03-11 04:06:05	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	1,093	99¢	$1,084	0x27ad36…
03-11 04:01:35	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	471	99¢	$467	0x88769b…
03-11 01:47:25	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa21160…
03-11 01:33:15	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x390950…
03-10 20:26:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	454	6¢	$29	0x603eae…
03-10 20:25:27	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	26	6¢	$2	0x7226ca…
03-10 20:24:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$13	0xa1fa39…
03-10 20:24:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	781	6¢	$50	0xc429ec…
03-10 20:24:25	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	4,539	6¢	$290	0x90d990…
03-10 20:15:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,234	6¢	$73	0x6b4b5f…
03-10 20:13:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,845	6¢	$109	0xc5cbaf…
03-10 20:12:57	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,921	6¢	$113	0x666fe4…
03-10 19:56:09	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x62ce6a…
03-10 19:51:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	8,919	5¢	$464	0xaad8ff…
03-10 18:41:17	fact check maduro capture staged	No	SELL	2,209	99¢	$2,191	0xecbe49…
03-10 15:44:37	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	9,424	99¢	$9,340	0xc13f84…
03-10 09:45:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5,869	4¢	$252	0xf1413a…
03-09 19:17:39	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	10,740	99¢	$10,644	0x08b415…
03-09 17:00:29	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	300	7¢	$20	0x2c9194…
03-09 17:00:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	17,750	7¢	$1,207	0x6523a5…
03-09 12:18:27	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	9,874	8¢	$810	0x7ed4e2…
03-09 12:17:55	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x8e4ca4…
03-09 12:12:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	272	8¢	$22	0xdf698e…
03-09 12:11:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xa24e5f…
03-09 12:11:43	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x549c07…
03-09 12:11:35	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	134	8¢	$11	0xe71436…
03-09 12:08:09	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	482	8¢	$40	0xec2233…
03-09 12:05:21	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x2d880d…
03-09 12:04:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	5,000	8¢	$410	0xedc1ac…
03-09 12:02:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0xdeaa0c…
03-09 12:01:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	280	92¢	$257	0xdcacc4…
03-09 12:01:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	4,193	8¢	$344	0x3fe8cd…
03-09 12:01:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	807	92¢	$741	0x3fe8cd…
03-09 11:59:31	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	2,533	92¢	$2,325	0x2e19da…
03-09 11:58:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	47	92¢	$43	0x3afa47…
03-09 11:57:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	47	92¢	$43	0xea8835…
03-09 11:56:51	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	38	92¢	$35	0x95e1b4…
03-09 11:56:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	218	92¢	$200	0xc27037…
03-09 11:56:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x930bcd…
03-09 11:54:47	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xe3177f…
03-09 11:54:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	62	92¢	$57	0xde51db…
03-09 11:54:23	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	1,221	92¢	$1,121	0x248358…
03-09 11:53:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	51	92¢	$47	0xb13e34…