Bland-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$141

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

112

Trades

2,088

lifetime

Volume

$26.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 05-25 10:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 53% $-92

Other

15% 100% +$0

Politics

11% 20% +$232

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 159 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 18 9am et	238	$3.0K	3,306	3,291	+16	open	—	02-18 14:57
bitcoin up or down february 18 7am et	253	$2.7K	4,235	2,910	+1,326	open	—	02-18 12:55
bitcoin up or down february 18 8am et	81	$1.9K	7,726	1,780	+5,946	open	—	02-18 13:54
bitcoin up or down february 18 12pm et	30	$1.6K	1,670	1,670	+0	open	—	02-18 17:28
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	8	$1.4K	847	742	+105	open	—	05-01 15:00
bitcoin up or down february 17 4am et	18	$1.3K	780	700	+80	open	—	02-17 09:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	20	$1.3K	4,063	3,363	+700	open	—	05-10 13:25
btc updown 5m 1771343700	1	$825	833	0	+833	open	—	02-17 15:59
btc updown 15m 1771433100	42	$681	600	591	+9	open	—	02-18 16:49
btc updown 15m 1771325100	1	$600	619	0	+619	open	—	02-17 10:59
bitcoin up or down february 18 10am et	62	$557	11,240	230	+11,010	open	—	02-18 15:56
bitcoin up or down february 17 10am et	29	$521	604	610	-6	open	—	02-17 15:25
bitcoin up or down february 17 9am et	37	$519	1,107	1,107	+0	open	—	02-17 14:53
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	24	$486	535	535	+0	open	—	05-01 13:39
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	40	$412	24,976	17,534	+7,442	open	—	05-10 12:24
bitcoin up or down february 18 11am et	12	$411	7,372	0	+7,372	open	—	02-18 16:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$403	201,500	0	+201,500	open	—	04-30 14:27
bitcoin up or down february 17 6am et	39	$353	402	382	+20	open	—	02-17 11:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	16	$289	1,475	1,570	-95	open	—	05-10 09:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$241	131,400	800	+130,600	Yes	+$424	05-09 13:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	4	$221	73,099	21,250	+51,849	open	—	04-30 17:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$221	500	300	+200	open	—	05-09 08:52
sol updown 15m 1771112700	5	$200	156	154	+1	open	—	02-14 23:59
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 1?	3	$189	100	100	+0	open	—	05-01 15:18
bitcoin up or down february 17 7am et	19	$169	738	703	+35	open	—	02-17 12:59
bitcoin up or down february 14 6am et	33	$168	498	68	+430	open	—	02-14 11:21
btc updown 5m 1771170600	2	$164	83	83	+0	open	—	02-15 15:54
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$162	1,350	1,350	+0	open	—	05-09 13:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	17	$159	4,167	167	+4,000	No	$-135	05-10 13:05
sol updown 15m 1771114500	25	$144	391	389	+1	open	—	02-15 00:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 10:18:27	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x8ba362…
05-25 10:18:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x13beca…
05-10 13:25:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0x73d773…
05-10 13:05:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xdcda77…
05-10 12:59:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0xd54a08…
05-10 12:48:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	8¢	$5	0x394ae8…
05-10 12:33:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x6143dc…
05-10 12:29:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x6f433a…
05-10 12:29:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x8378a0…
05-10 12:27:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	429	4¢	$15	0x8672d8…
05-10 12:24:26	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0xf550f3…
05-10 12:10:40	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	3,290	1¢	$37	0xb34a57…
05-10 12:08:53	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	700	2¢	$15	0x615c70…
05-10 12:06:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	513	1¢	$6	0x3702c0…
05-10 11:56:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	485	3¢	$13	0x9047ef…
05-10 11:50:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0xafb0a8…
05-10 11:39:05	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xd2df32…
05-10 11:38:07	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	2,537	2¢	$38	0x1658f9…
05-10 11:37:41	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	115	2¢	$2	0xe04e19…
05-10 11:32:26	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$24	0x4530c1…
05-10 11:23:28	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	137	2¢	$3	0x63a025…
05-10 11:19:15	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	476	2¢	$10	0x2fc89d…
05-10 11:10:56	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	17	2¢	$0	0x9d86d7…
05-10 11:10:26	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xfaea59…
05-10 11:10:00	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x986f09…
05-10 11:09:51	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	238	2¢	$5	0x9811bd…
05-10 11:06:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	226	2¢	$5	0x7c5366…
05-10 11:03:51	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x19e018…
05-10 11:02:25	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	123	2¢	$2	0x496e0b…
05-10 10:58:11	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	395	2¢	$6	0xccc7ad…
05-10 10:56:44	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	BUY	90	10¢	$9	0xfdbb14…
05-10 10:46:15	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0xe331fd…
05-10 10:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x76b596…
05-10 10:34:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x89cb4b…
05-10 10:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xf3e4ea…
05-10 10:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9c98a7…
05-10 10:29:29	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	1,119	2¢	$23	0x0a45ed…
05-10 09:57:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	7,777	0¢	$16	0x8f0eb7…
05-10 09:57:15	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	780	2¢	$16	0xaea0a9…
05-10 09:54:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	3,000	0¢	$6	0x4987da…
05-10 09:52:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	247	1¢	$3	0x5f1e5b…
05-10 09:50:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	273	1¢	$3	0x045746…
05-10 08:41:13	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	613	2¢	$14	0x764d0a…
05-10 08:34:01	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x8eee80…
05-10 08:29:09	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	132	3¢	$4	0xb055b9…
05-10 08:21:28	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	672	2¢	$15	0x25bd09…
05-10 08:04:26	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	130	3¢	$3	0x1a5a10…
05-10 08:01:54	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x7d9cfa…
05-10 07:45:11	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	83	3¢	$2	0xe7dabc…
05-10 07:43:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0x34b487…
05-10 07:40:59	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x47ecb1…
05-09 17:34:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	4¢	$5	0xb4e970…
05-09 17:28:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0xab18b4…
05-09 17:26:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x98dccd…
05-09 17:18:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x00db4d…
05-09 17:10:53	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	105	2¢	$2	0x5e452c…
05-09 17:10:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xe005c1…
05-09 17:09:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xc240f2…
05-09 17:07:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xf60fed…
05-09 17:07:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	723	4¢	$26	0x618649…
05-09 17:06:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	427	4¢	$15	0x472d89…
05-09 17:05:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x05d202…
05-09 17:03:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x39e866…
05-09 17:03:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x81ba14…
05-09 16:58:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	292	3¢	$9	0x2900bc…
05-09 16:46:43	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	970	2¢	$15	0x9081d9…
05-09 16:46:23	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	935	2¢	$15	0xc26132…
05-09 16:39:44	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x24a9f8…
05-09 16:35:32	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	85	2¢	$1	0x1edf20…
05-09 16:25:46	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xf9810e…
05-09 16:25:18	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	1,905	1¢	$29	0x892887…
05-09 16:22:55	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x01c34c…
05-09 14:55:49	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	743	2¢	$11	0x20f92f…
05-09 13:48:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40,000	0¢	$40	0x27421d…
05-09 13:26:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0x62021c…
05-09 13:25:24	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0x54d3a6…
05-09 12:56:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30,000	0¢	$30	0x132db1…
05-09 11:48:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xe2d7f2…
05-09 09:40:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x8046d6…
05-09 09:39:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x5c1e6b…
05-09 09:28:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	65	2¢	$1	0xd30c3f…
05-09 09:28:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	323	2¢	$6	0xd5492c…
05-09 09:27:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	137	2¢	$3	0xcbd3ae…
05-09 09:27:00	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	4¢	$6	0xce8d93…
05-09 09:16:37	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$32	0xde3a13…
05-09 09:13:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	700	3¢	$20	0x275af1…
05-09 09:08:35	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x87429a…
05-09 09:02:40	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x957f3b…
05-09 09:02:16	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	14,639	0¢	$73	0x20982b…
05-09 09:01:32	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	8,900	0¢	$44	0x43db07…
05-09 09:01:04	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	1,100	0¢	$4	0x1ae428…
05-09 08:55:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	661	4¢	$26	0x753583…
05-09 08:53:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0xb50b6f…
05-09 08:52:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0xd5ad6f…
05-09 08:49:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x7680a3…
05-09 08:48:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xf3934e…
05-09 08:39:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$35	0xa29f17…
05-09 08:35:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$35	0xfc393c…
05-09 08:34:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	14¢	$70	0x47792f…
05-08 09:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xa04a26…