Subdued-Pasta — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$30.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$111

Hit rate

88.4%

Resolved

2,334

Trades

11,298

lifetime

Volume

$1.55M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$138

Open exposure

$14.2K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-31 14:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 245 days

Categories

Other

46% 90% +$6,432

Politics

39% 80% +$13,990

Crypto

8% 85% +$6,434

Tech

4% 77% +$1,256

Sports

3% 70% +$2,646

Pop-Culture

0% 92% +$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+12,520	$7,174	93¢	$11.7K	+$4,482	06-21 14:39
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+12,520	$3,677	7¢	$864	-$2,813	07-08 12:26
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	-500	-$400	96¢	$-477	-$77	06-24 07:49
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+1,000	$510	44¢	$445	-$65	09-02 08:04
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+1,800	$639	12¢	$225	-$414	05-26 20:01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,008	$282	15¢	$146	-$135	07-14 19:19
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$260	12¢	$125	-$135	07-28 17:21
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	-170	-$117	63¢	$-107	+$10	06-16 00:54
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+1,227	$193	6¢	$77	-$117	05-27 02:20
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?	Yes	+400	$72	4¢	$18	-$54	08-06 09:08
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+113	$7	7¢	$8	+$1	05-27 05:29
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	+122	$385	6¢	$8	-$377	08-01 05:33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+8	$5	86¢	$7	+$2	06-30 17:47
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	+2,000	$260	0¢	$6	-$254	09-17 07:12
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+47	-$18	8¢	$4	+$21	09-13 05:32
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	-1	-$1	96¢	$-1	$0	05-19 08:18
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+0	-$36	98¢	$0	+$36	05-18 06:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	52	$52.8K	54,494	4,864	+49,629	No	+$1,841	06-03 13:43
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	59	$48.7K	31,000	18,000	+13,000	No	+$57	05-28 16:14
will trump post ufc on truth social this week 20260622154014267	59	$29.4K	42,095	0	+42,095	Yes	-$521	06-28 20:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	32	$25.3K	16,754	10,786	+5,968	Yes	+$1,344	06-16 02:39
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	52	$24.9K	16,554	14,454	+2,100	Yes	+$728	02-28 08:31
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	6	$14.8K	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	04-28 14:32
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	18	$14.3K	16,022	2,222	+13,800	Yes	+$2	06-11 19:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	46	$13.9K	8,028	9,774	-1,745	No	+$352	05-27 03:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	54	$13.7K	14,000	0	+14,000	No	+$342	06-04 07:36
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	12	$13.4K	13,600	0	+13,600	Yes	+$244	06-18 00:03
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	61	$13.3K	15,939	634	+15,306	Yes	+$136	05-31 18:38
will trump praise allah again by june 30	4	$12.0K	12,000	0	+12,000	Yes	+$14	06-10 13:05
Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by June 30?	7	$11.4K	11,510	0	+11,510	Yes	+$3	05-02 08:29
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	25	$11.1K	6,000	6,000	+0	open	—	05-18 06:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	44	$10.9K	25,053	13	+25,040	open	—	07-08 12:26
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	35	$10.8K	10,134	11,134	-1,000	Yes	-$1,011	03-08 17:50
will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 15 be between 80 and 85	10	$10.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	+$0	04-24 15:05
will trump praise allah by june 30	4	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$47	06-10 11:47
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	61	$9.6K	7,515	7,515	+0	Yes	+$117	03-13 18:49
will trump say sleepy joe or biden during the white house easter egg roll	31	$9.1K	4,657	4,581	+76	Yes	+$32	04-06 17:50
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?	20	$9.0K	8,774	674	+8,100	Yes	+$456	06-09 17:23
Will Leavitt say "President" 55+ times during the next White House press briefing?	8	$8.8K	8,925	0	+8,925	Yes	+$131	04-27 17:30
will the us flu hospitalization rate per 100000 in week 15 be between 85 and 90	10	$8.8K	4,391	4,391	+0	Yes	+$0	04-24 15:05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	28	$8.5K	5,445	7,160	-1,714	Yes	+$22	05-26 18:06
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	24	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	No	+$8	05-27 08:37
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	1	$8.0K	8,000	0	+8,000	Yes	+$8	04-07 14:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	6	$8.0K	4,400	4,400	+0	No	+$17	05-28 15:30
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	7	$7.9K	8,613	1,225	+7,388	No	+$160	08-01 04:18
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	13	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	-$24	04-28 17:07
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	34	$7.5K	6,029	2,729	+3,300	Yes	+$116	06-09 17:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 14:36:25	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	180	99¢	$179	0x865791…
10-31 10:47:46	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xd6922f…
10-31 10:47:46	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x15449e…
10-27 01:13:27	Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	SELL	122	23¢	$28	0xdb411b…
10-26 23:56:27	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0xdb98b4…
10-26 23:56:09	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0x1abe39…
10-26 23:54:57	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xf60c38…
10-26 23:54:53	Will Oliver Tree rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	SELL	84	26¢	$22	0x7b2ea1…
10-26 03:54:03	Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	86	25¢	$21	0xa84fbc…
10-25 12:58:54	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x5a76f4…
10-25 00:52:42	Will Phygitals launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	86¢	$32	0x6316c8…
10-24 09:08:44	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x542e21…
10-24 03:57:44	Will Phygitals launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xbae593…
10-23 17:15:20	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x5b0b16…
10-23 15:38:00	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x71f58d…
10-23 14:51:42	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xafe255…
10-23 14:26:53	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	52	99¢	$51	0xed8d90…
10-23 14:26:53	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x2d5ceb…
10-23 14:25:50	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x966628…
10-23 14:15:11	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x41fe33…
10-23 14:15:11	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x192f8b…
10-23 11:36:53	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xae683b…
10-22 23:14:45	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7ddf43…
10-22 15:50:51	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xfd1fb9…
10-22 15:50:51	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xf092ad…
10-22 05:18:51	Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x449bab…
10-21 12:27:17	Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x70f1e4…
10-21 11:30:41	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0x1d380c…
10-21 11:30:32	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xab10ce…
10-21 10:01:56	Will Sameera Ali win the 2026 Milton mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0xcdd000…
10-21 02:35:18	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x02bf1a…
10-20 19:54:47	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	25	58¢	$14	0x62e8fd…
10-20 19:54:45	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0xf5532e…
10-20 08:12:25	Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	94	25¢	$24	0x22f7e9…
10-19 13:05:03	Will Slay the Spire 2 win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6a389f…
10-17 23:34:09	Will Alexa Loo win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xc482e8…
10-17 19:16:20	Will Alexa Loo win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	No	SELL	84	91¢	$76	0xc7d2f5…
10-15 19:12:35	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xf50487…
10-15 10:33:22	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?	No	SELL	83	80¢	$66	0x633f3d…
10-13 16:00:25	Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x7a69de…
10-13 14:06:20	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xdbd642…
10-12 02:12:00	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0x7d4eb9…
10-11 14:01:04	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026?	No	SELL	34	80¢	$27	0x880685…
10-10 22:47:12	Will Teach You a Lesson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	No	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0x239029…
10-10 22:01:25	Will Teach You a Lesson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	No	SELL	40	79¢	$31	0x12b912…
10-10 21:22:34	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x30f1c3…
10-10 21:22:30	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xf397ea…
10-10 21:22:28	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x12ac4c…
10-10 21:22:27	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xc8418e…
10-10 21:21:45	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x206e65…
10-10 19:32:42	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xb977f0…
10-10 12:43:25	Will Harj Dhaliwal win the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	197	70¢	$138	0x703dde…
10-10 12:42:22	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	469	24¢	$112	0x137aad…
10-10 10:26:34	Will Harj Dhaliwal win the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xba4235…
10-10 08:26:21	Will Harj Dhaliwal win the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	916	62¢	$567	0xe60717…
10-10 08:19:18	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	106	54¢	$57	0xf9ffbe…
10-10 08:03:22	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	891	45¢	$402	0xe37889…
10-10 07:46:45	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	1,754	11¢	$197	0x45b307…
10-10 07:37:54	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	23	36¢	$8	0xd06ec5…
10-10 07:37:54	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xba0f33…
10-10 07:37:54	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	No	BUY	284	36¢	$101	0x4159e1…
10-10 07:32:58	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	1,183	25¢	$291	0x743339…
10-09 16:54:13	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	717	30¢	$214	0x82a139…
10-09 12:52:09	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$15	0xa87f71…
10-09 12:52:07	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x2f7ab7…
10-09 08:20:18	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x98d452…
10-09 08:02:15	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x024605…
10-09 06:21:37	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0xc7e162…
10-09 04:31:00	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	2,000	16¢	$324	0xbbed7d…
10-09 04:25:55	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	167	65¢	$109	0xb8a053…
10-08 20:28:09	Will Sameera Ali win the 2026 Milton mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	176	20¢	$35	0xcb6cc3…
10-08 02:58:53	Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?	No	SELL	182	72¢	$131	0x98a625…
10-08 02:58:37	Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?	No	SELL	239	93¢	$223	0x68fcd8…
10-08 02:57:53	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	600	75¢	$451	0x8bf459…
10-08 02:57:16	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	61¢	$166	0xd12485…
10-07 21:43:31	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x8db227…
10-07 18:19:16	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x592b6f…
10-07 17:15:13	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	797	53¢	$420	0x48d9fa…
10-07 17:07:56	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	845	51¢	$434	0x754ced…
10-07 17:07:07	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	No	SELL	98	84¢	$82	0xc40194…
10-07 17:06:05	Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?	No	BUY	239	80¢	$191	0xd50c99…
10-07 17:05:32	Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?	No	BUY	182	62¢	$113	0x360efa…
10-07 08:32:41	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	196	38¢	$74	0x939747…
10-07 05:28:59	Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x86f498…
10-05 15:43:11	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xd0997d…
10-05 15:42:49	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb7f40e…
10-05 15:40:55	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x33d3c0…
10-05 15:40:50	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x983b67…
10-05 15:40:50	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x76c55f…
10-05 14:31:19	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x1ab4c3…
10-05 05:59:16	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcbbf26…
10-05 05:59:16	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xc8ca0a…
10-05 05:59:16	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x940bab…
10-05 05:59:14	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe217e3…
10-05 05:59:13	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x1d4e6e…
10-05 05:58:53	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9d77b5…
10-05 05:58:40	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xa5641b…
10-05 05:58:35	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0xa531f8…
10-05 05:58:35	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x158373…
10-05 05:58:34	Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in September?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x001f2f…