Untrue-Service — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

35.8%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

651 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$81

$8.34K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-06 22:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

83% 83% -$31

Crypto

11% 82% +$0

Politics

4% 62% $0

Sports

2% 58% $0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No		+2	$2	100¢	$2	$0	09-13 10:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Jorge Nieto win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by any margin?	3	$91	45	45	+0	No	$0	04-13 07:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	3	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-15 05:12
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on May 7?	3	$65	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-07 03:48
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 12?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-12 09:22
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 4?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-03 20:04
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on May 5?	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-04 19:38
highest temperature in lucknow on april 1 2026 39c	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	04-01 10:57
highest temperature in milan on april 4 2026 17c	1	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	04-04 02:23
highest temperature in wuhan on april 2 2026 27corhigher	1	$58	58	0	+58	No	+$0	04-02 03:40
will karen khachanov win the 2026 australian open	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	01-22 19:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-08 18:56
highest temperature in ankara on march 28 2026 10c	1	$56	57	0	+57	No	+$0	03-28 03:28
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-05 22:12
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 12?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-12 09:23
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on May 6?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-06 12:16
highest temperature in chicago on march 28 2026 60 61f	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	03-28 11:14
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	4	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-16 05:08
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 29 2026 30c	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$0	03-29 09:32
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or below on May 10?	2	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-09 21:04
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	3	$53	26	26	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 10:54
will virgin river season 7 be the top global netflix show this week 189	1	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$0	03-30 04:13
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	4	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-15 20:56
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 5?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-04 03:37
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 16?	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	$0	05-16 07:20
Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-15 21:45
highest temperature in chongqing on march 27 2026 24c	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-27 04:14
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 2?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-01 17:23
highest temperature in istanbul on april 23 2026 17corhigher	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	04-23 23:46
highest temperature in nyc on april 21 2026 60 61f	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	$0	04-21 22:15
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 17?	2	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-17 01:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 22:15:55	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x362760…
11-06 22:15:07	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0xf247e3…
11-02 21:22:28	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x617a03…
10-21 19:40:11	Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x71142a…
10-21 06:04:35	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4d5d0a…
10-21 06:03:39	Will D.C. United win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x85493b…
10-10 13:53:46	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3ee13c…
10-10 13:52:52	Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x8d274d…
10-10 13:52:03	Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xa39a02…
10-10 13:51:12	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x39f215…
10-10 13:50:18	Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x02d91d…
10-10 13:49:28	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x038681…
10-05 10:15:19	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd36456…
09-24 21:16:39	Will D.C. United win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd756fc…
09-13 10:32:30	Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd30d5d…
09-02 11:00:36	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x41d78b…
08-14 09:38:01	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb6ad2c…
08-08 07:24:24	Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x83c556…
07-26 00:09:40	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf675e4…
07-20 11:14:01	Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xed3225…
07-19 10:23:40	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x06d8f4…
07-13 09:01:19	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xdb7283…
07-09 23:55:37	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$10	0xd3e8d1…
07-05 01:28:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xa92a02…
06-29 01:59:38	Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x792237…
06-27 16:37:47	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x16cfde…
06-23 21:06:46	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x39f289…
06-19 13:35:23	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x374d47…
05-17 18:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x2916d9…
05-17 18:18:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x29427d…
05-17 17:34:25	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$6	0x369c55…
05-17 17:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x1065a7…
05-17 09:21:26	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf6592a…
05-17 06:59:48	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 17?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0xb2ac2b…
05-17 05:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xebf301…
05-17 02:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6f7982…
05-17 01:41:06	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 17?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x96da8b…
05-17 01:39:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x33009a…
05-17 00:36:25	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 17?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd80aa6…
05-16 20:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa6f480…
05-16 19:54:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 17?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x31e926…
05-16 19:13:32	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9a1346…
05-16 19:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 17?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf97350…
05-16 16:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 17?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0xb24c2b…
05-16 13:02:08	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x78828e…
05-16 11:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xec13ad…
05-16 08:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xcc4e7d…
05-16 07:20:23	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x43b59d…
05-16 07:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x4fb52a…
05-16 05:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xe3c0a5…
05-16 05:08:49	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9f0a6c…
05-16 05:08:03	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x366cf5…
05-16 05:06:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x87f2f4…
05-16 05:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x8c5169…
05-16 03:56:16	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x42a616…
05-16 01:26:34	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xeb4cdf…
05-15 21:45:32	Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x258100…
05-15 21:43:21	Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x448d49…
05-15 21:39:05	Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5f7b4c…
05-15 20:56:46	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcd03e0…
05-15 20:56:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x4e5fba…
05-15 20:52:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9438d6…
05-15 20:47:52	Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x81d841…
05-15 19:21:32	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $197 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x922671…
05-15 16:55:06	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C or below on May 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x13b451…
05-15 14:40:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xaa2e8a…
05-15 13:23:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 15?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xf8bd98…
05-15 13:18:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9c40f9…
05-15 10:57:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7e5033…
05-15 10:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xffb12d…
05-15 10:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x4dc5e8…
05-15 10:15:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xaa77f3…
05-15 08:58:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 16?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x0c87b2…
05-15 06:49:11	Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x07fe56…
05-15 06:12:14	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 15?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x68623a…
05-15 05:22:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xdb1791…
05-15 05:18:23	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x219839…
05-15 05:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xf48094…
05-15 05:12:23	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x473a5a…
05-15 03:32:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6e33cc…
05-14 22:51:56	Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa39f6b…
05-14 15:41:03	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x601174…
05-14 14:14:26	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x319df5…
05-14 12:17:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7bd62f…
05-14 10:54:03	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x36ca43…
05-14 09:59:20	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x28b4d2…
05-14 08:40:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa87c39…
05-14 07:16:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x004fcd…
05-14 06:40:43	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x857962…
05-14 05:58:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x35cb4f…
05-14 04:20:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x07a322…
05-14 03:25:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x44b9dc…
05-14 03:22:28	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$20	0x247115…
05-14 02:39:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 14?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8453ea…
05-13 20:34:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfdd185…
05-13 18:15:41	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0x7a2e6f…
05-13 15:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or below on May 14?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x300324…
05-13 14:10:00	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6b09a3…
05-13 10:19:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 13?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xeec8e0…
05-13 10:17:43	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 14?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x20d247…