Realized P&L
-$28.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$533
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
6,603
Trades
114,541
lifetime
Volume
$2.69M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$3.83K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 15:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 302 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,318
Politics
10% 46% +$5,988
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 335 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 88¢ $-605 -$360 07-17 18:07
Will Malaysia win Eurovision Asia 2026? No +367 $238 100¢ $367 +$129 11-14 11:12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +497 $29 53¢ $263 +$235 11-13 17:47
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +382 $194 65¢ $249 +$55 11-14 13:14
Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +236 $222 96¢ $226 +$4 11-14 15:59
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 64¢ $187 +$68 11-02 03:32
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? Yes +193 $142 88¢ $170 +$28 11-14 01:48
Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026? No +165 $145 99¢ $164 +$19 10-31 08:33
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +440 $172 32¢ $141 -$31 11-12 14:44
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$211 47¢ $-124 +$87 11-13 07:18
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-123 -$59 07-29 18:30
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in November 2026? No +132 $118 92¢ $122 +$3 11-14 08:40
Will Vietnam win Eurovision Asia 2026? No +116 $113 100¢ $116 +$3 11-14 15:05
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 34¢ $101 +$75 07-26 09:26
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? Yes +297 $72 26¢ $77 +$6 11-14 15:34
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -90 -$62 85¢ $-76 -$14 06-14 17:22
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 91¢ $75 -$26 06-24 03:58
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +163 $18 42¢ $69 +$50 11-13 19:07
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +82 $64 80¢ $66 +$1 11-14 14:58
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31? Yes +265 $53 24¢ $65 +$12 11-13 20:16
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 8¢ $-64 +$44 07-30 15:03
Will Google have the best AI model on December 15, 2026? Yes +80 $63 78¢ $62 -$1 11-13 18:32
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? No +285 $86 18¢ $50 -$36 11-13 00:58
Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027? Yes +76 -$7 64¢ $48 +$55 11-14 12:13
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes +292 $50 16¢ $47 -$3 08-30 04:41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +44 -$19 90¢ $40 +$59 11-11 19:19
GTA VI Online released by December 31, 2026? Yes +288 $43 14¢ $39 -$4 11-14 00:22
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -153 -$69 23¢ $-35 +$34 05-01 08:37
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 3¢ $-34 +$95 05-10 01:40
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes -73 -$36 40¢ $-30 +$6 04-30 06:45