Realized P&L
-$28.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$490
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
6,590
Trades
114,281
lifetime
Volume
$2.69M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$3.23K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-12 08:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 299 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,346
Politics
10% 46% +$5,988
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 336 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 88¢ $-605 -$360 07-17 18:07
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +756 $280 38¢ $287 +$7 11-03 12:02
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +375 $195 70¢ $261 +$66 11-12 09:26
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +300 $198 70¢ $208 +$10 11-12 05:39
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +218 $109 93¢ $203 +$94 11-12 04:07
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 62¢ $182 +$63 11-02 03:32
Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026? No +165 $145 99¢ $164 +$19 10-31 08:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$207 47¢ $-124 +$83 11-02 16:38
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-123 -$59 07-29 18:30
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +299 $53 35¢ $105 +$52 11-12 05:49
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +117 $36 83¢ $98 +$62 11-11 22:48
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 32¢ $94 +$68 07-26 09:26
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -90 -$62 84¢ $-76 -$14 06-14 17:22
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 89¢ $74 -$27 06-24 03:58
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +138 -$131 53¢ $73 +$204 11-12 09:37
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 8¢ $-56 +$52 07-30 15:03
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +169 $39 32¢ $55 +$16 11-12 04:59
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes +292 $50 16¢ $47 -$3 08-30 04:41
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -47 -$6 94¢ $-44 -$38 06-01 16:40
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +61 $47 68¢ $41 -$6 11-11 21:38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +44 -$19 81¢ $36 +$55 11-11 19:19
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +296 $18 12¢ $35 +$17 11-12 03:12
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -153 -$69 23¢ $-35 +$34 05-01 08:37
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes -73 -$36 48¢ $-35 +$1 04-30 06:45
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 3¢ $-34 +$95 05-10 01:40
GTA VI Online released by December 31, 2026? Yes +242 $37 14¢ $33 -$4 11-12 06:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +144 $71 22¢ $31 -$40 11-11 19:38
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes -390 -$112 6¢ $-25 +$87 10-29 02:24
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -339 $18 7¢ $-23 -$41 11-05 15:11
Will Counter-Strike 2 Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award? Yes +71 $20 27¢ $19 -$1 08-30 06:44