Realized P&L
-$28.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$319
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
6,593
Trades
114,395
lifetime
Volume
$2.69M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$24
Open exposure
$3.57K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-13 12:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,409
Politics
10% 46% +$5,988
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 336 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 90¢ $-616 -$371 07-17 18:07
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +352 $167 70¢ $248 +$81 11-13 09:44
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +382 $195 65¢ $247 +$52 11-13 02:29
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +454 $247 48¢ $218 -$29 11-13 14:24
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 63¢ $183 +$64 11-02 03:32
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? Yes +275 $182 62¢ $172 -$11 11-13 06:11
Will Philippines win Eurovision Asia 2026? No +225 $169 74¢ $168 -$1 11-13 10:17
Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026? No +165 $145 99¢ $164 +$19 10-31 08:33
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +440 $172 30¢ $130 -$42 11-12 14:44
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$211 49¢ $-129 +$81 11-13 07:18
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-123 -$59 07-29 18:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +233 -$92 51¢ $119 +$210 11-13 14:06
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +299 $53 35¢ $106 +$53 11-12 05:49
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +193 $34 52¢ $100 +$66 11-13 12:56
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 32¢ $94 +$68 07-26 09:26
Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage Nexus +142 $80 55¢ $77 -$2 11-13 07:53
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -90 -$62 85¢ $-76 -$14 06-14 17:22
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 89¢ $74 -$27 06-24 03:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +522 $137 13¢ $68 -$69 11-13 07:35
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 8¢ $-60 +$48 07-30 15:03
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +53 -$48 96¢ $51 +$99 11-13 01:01
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes +292 $50 16¢ $47 -$3 08-30 04:41
Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? No +285 $86 16¢ $46 -$40 11-13 00:58
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -47 -$6 94¢ $-44 -$38 06-01 16:40
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 14? No +61 $43 69¢ $42 -$1 11-13 14:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +44 -$19 88¢ $39 +$58 11-11 19:19
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -153 -$69 23¢ $-35 +$34 05-01 08:37
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 4¢ $-35 +$95 05-10 01:40
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +296 $18 11¢ $31 +$13 11-12 03:12
GTA VI Online released by December 31, 2026? Yes +297 $44 10¢ $30 -$14 11-12 22:37