Realized P&L
-$28.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$468
Hit rate
58.0%
Resolved
6,589
Trades
114,243
lifetime
Volume
$2.68M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.49K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-11 15:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 299 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,331
Politics
10% 46% +$5,988
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 336 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 88¢ $-605 -$360 07-17 18:07
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +756 $280 41¢ $310 +$30 11-03 12:02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 57¢ $167 +$48 11-02 03:32
Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by November 30, 2026? No +165 $145 99¢ $164 +$19 10-31 08:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$207 54¢ $-141 +$66 11-02 16:38
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-123 -$59 07-29 18:30
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +121 $39 88¢ $106 +$67 11-09 21:09
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 36¢ $106 +$80 07-26 09:26
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -90 -$62 93¢ $-84 -$22 06-14 17:22
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 93¢ $77 -$25 06-24 03:58
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes -390 -$112 19¢ $-74 +$38 10-29 02:24
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 8¢ $-56 +$52 07-30 15:03
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +80 $1 65¢ $52 +$52 11-11 14:47
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Yes +292 $50 16¢ $47 -$3 08-30 04:41
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 4¢ $-45 +$85 05-10 01:40
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -47 -$6 94¢ $-44 -$38 06-01 16:40
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -83 -$247 46¢ $-39 +$209 10-27 20:03
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No -153 -$69 23¢ $-35 +$34 05-01 08:37
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes -73 -$36 48¢ $-35 +$1 04-30 06:45
Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027? Yes +46 -$22 60¢ $28 +$50 11-11 15:50
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -339 $18 7¢ $-23 -$41 11-05 15:11
Will Counter-Strike 2 Win the 2026 Esports Game of the Year Award? Yes +71 $20 27¢ $19 -$1 08-30 06:44
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -100 -$47 18¢ $-18 +$28 05-09 01:00
Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? No +20 $10 85¢ $17 +$7 11-11 16:06
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes +299 $81 5¢ $16 -$65 08-06 21:51
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +242 $42 6¢ $14 -$28 11-10 14:01
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Yes -692 -$147 2¢ $-13 +$134 09-27 08:11
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -499 -$130 3¢ $-13 +$116 06-14 22:27
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027? Yes +67 $23 20¢ $13 -$10 11-03 09:46
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +10 $4 98¢ $10 +$6 07-10 01:01