Realized P&L (30d)
-$329
Unrealized P&L
+$431
Hit rate
51.2%
Resolved (30d)
241
Trades (30d)
2,751
114,215 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$77.9K
$2.68M lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.38K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-07 13:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 297 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,429
Politics
10% 46% +$5,988
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 336 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 76¢ $-523 -$278 07-17 18:07
Will Zoran Janković win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? No +756 $280 40¢ $299 +$18 11-03 12:02
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 62¢ $182 +$63 11-02 03:32
Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027? Yes +287 $127 57¢ $165 +$38 11-07 13:30
Will "Earrings – Malcom Todd" be the #2 song in the US for 2026? No +208 $120 69¢ $144 +$24 11-01 20:19
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-122 -$58 07-29 18:30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$207 43¢ $-114 +$93 11-02 16:38
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 34¢ $103 +$77 07-26 09:26
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -90 -$62 94¢ $-85 -$23 06-14 17:22
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 97¢ $80 -$21 06-24 03:58
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes -390 -$112 18¢ $-72 +$40 10-29 02:24
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 8¢ $-64 +$44 07-30 15:03
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027? Yes +199 $40 31¢ $62 +$21 11-04 19:44
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 6¢ $-55 +$75 05-10 01:40
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -83 -$247 57¢ $-47 +$200 10-27 20:03
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -47 -$6 94¢ $-44 -$38 06-01 16:40
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027? Yes +67 $23 51¢ $34 +$12 11-03 09:46
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -100 -$47 21¢ $-21 +$26 05-09 01:00
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? No +28 -$11 72¢ $20 +$31 11-07 11:58
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -499 -$130 4¢ $-18 +$112 06-14 22:27
Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +106 $5 16¢ $18 +$12 10-16 15:35
Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting? No +131 $21 12¢ $15 -$6 10-17 04:21
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes -339 $18 4¢ $-14 -$32 11-05 15:11
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 Yes +300 $36 4¢ $14 -$22 08-02 04:02
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Yes -692 -$147 2¢ $-13 +$134 09-27 08:11
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? No +132 $29 10¢ $13 -$16 11-03 15:25
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? No +60 $7 19¢ $11 +$5 11-01 23:45
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Yes +299 $81 4¢ $11 -$70 08-06 21:51
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +10 $4 97¢ $10 +$6 07-10 01:01
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +295 $46 3¢ $10 -$36 11-01 16:11