Realized P&L (30d)
-$671
Unrealized P&L
+$542
Hit rate
50.9%
Resolved (30d)
256
Trades (30d)
3,015
114,185 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$82.9K
$2.68M lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$2.12K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-04 20:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 295 days
Categories
Other
74% 36% -$29,673
Politics
10% 46% +$6,034
Sports
10% 41% -$8,950
Crypto
5% 32% +$2,818
Pop-Culture
1% 20% -$172
Tech
0% 45% +$834
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 336 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -688 -$245 83¢ $-571 -$326 07-17 18:07
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No +456 $291 57¢ $262 -$29 11-02 00:09
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +250 $114 71¢ $178 +$63 11-04 19:41
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Yes +292 $119 61¢ $177 +$58 11-02 03:32
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? Yes +299 $111 41¢ $123 +$12 10-30 15:55
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No -123 -$64 99¢ $-122 -$58 07-29 18:30
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes +297 $26 32¢ $97 +$71 07-26 09:26
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -264 -$207 30¢ $-79 +$128 11-02 16:38
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -750 -$108 10¢ $-71 +$37 07-30 15:03
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? Yes -390 -$112 18¢ $-70 +$42 10-29 02:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -83 -$247 70¢ $-58 +$189 10-27 20:03
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes -999 -$130 6¢ $-55 +$75 05-10 01:40
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No +83 -$217 59¢ $49 +$266 10-08 06:08
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes +83 $101 41¢ $34 -$67 06-24 03:58
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +295 $46 8¢ $22 -$24 11-01 16:11
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -100 -$47 19¢ $-19 +$28 05-09 01:00
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Yes -692 -$147 2¢ $-17 +$130 09-27 08:11
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 Yes +300 $36 4¢ $14 -$22 08-02 04:02
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? No +132 $29 10¢ $13 -$15 11-03 15:25
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes -498 -$65 2¢ $-12 +$53 05-04 09:01
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -24 -$24 43¢ $-10 +$14 11-04 05:02
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +10 $4 97¢ $10 +$6 07-10 01:01
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +10 $1 98¢ $10 +$9 09-17 23:39
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +8 -$1 94¢ $8 +$9 10-20 23:15
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027? Yes +8 $0 84¢ $7 +$7 11-04 10:35
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +13 $10 51¢ $7 -$3 06-11 22:46
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026? Yes +297 $33 2¢ $6 -$26 08-07 04:33
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Yes +112 $8 5¢ $6 -$2 06-09 07:33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes -38 $91 16¢ $-6 -$97 11-04 04:54
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? Yes -299 -$21 2¢ $-6 +$16 06-25 05:23