Splendid-Progression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

Trades

881

lifetime

Volume

$3.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 08-14 19:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

51% — —

Politics

29% 60% +$35

Tech

15% — —

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	21	$119	169	116	+52	open	—	08-15 00:59
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	21	$110	329	275	+54	open	—	08-06 21:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	17	$82	189	189	+0	open	—	08-11 10:04
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	13	$82	758	648	+110	open	—	08-15 00:59
gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	11	$67	39	38	+1	open	—	07-08 01:32
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	11	$62	75	75	+0	open	—	07-23 11:40
Fed rate hike in 2026?	12	$62	76	63	+13	open	—	08-15 00:59
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	11	$59	175	174	+0	open	—	08-07 00:37
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	8	$53	38	38	-0	open	—	08-13 14:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	7	$48	83	78	+5	open	—	08-12 09:54
will spy reach 760 in july 2026	6	$42	45	32	+13	open	—	07-26 06:11
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	6	$40	56	56	+1	open	—	07-07 01:18
gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	10	$39	216	195	+21	open	—	07-07 17:51
gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	13	$35	434	434	+0	open	—	07-05 00:17
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	7	$34	187	187	+0	open	—	07-05 15:10
israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	7	$33	157	157	+0	open	—	07-01 20:15
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	4	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	07-07 23:20
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$31	29	26	+3	open	—	07-10 15:21
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	6	$31	43	43	+0	open	—	07-20 21:04
will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	4	$31	80	65	+15	open	—	07-24 01:10
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	6	$30	48	47	+1	open	—	07-03 14:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	22	$29	313	313	+0	open	—	06-23 21:32
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	7	$29	69	69	+0	open	—	08-07 20:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	5	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	06-21 04:57
iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	4	$27	24	20	+4	open	—	07-26 16:11
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	6	$27	53	63	-10	open	—	08-04 16:32
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	4	$27	43	43	+0	open	—	07-24 01:10
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	4	$25	92	92	+0	open	—	07-19 10:55
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	3	$24	34	0	+34	open	—	08-08 23:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$24	43	43	+0	open	—	07-07 05:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 00:59:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xf6497f…
08-15 00:59:42	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	198	3¢	$6	0x36515d…
08-15 00:59:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x08ed58…
08-14 19:24:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x09d2f0…
08-13 14:44:45	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	9	80¢	$8	0xe6a5d5…
08-13 14:44:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	145	5¢	$7	0xeaab86…
08-12 23:29:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xc99f9e…
08-12 19:50:34	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0x7bcddd…
08-12 19:11:31	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x9687cf…
08-12 10:11:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0x35b2e4…
08-12 10:01:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xfbff0c…
08-12 09:54:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	48	16¢	$8	0xd27785…
08-12 05:42:01	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x6dcf01…
08-12 05:28:00	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xf893e7…
08-12 00:59:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x9dc8a9…
08-11 10:04:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x3ffe1e…
08-11 05:37:43	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x9d1e20…
08-11 05:37:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0x6b4a44…
08-11 05:37:43	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0x34a3a7…
08-11 01:03:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0xfe4195…
08-11 01:02:58	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa44f3d…
08-10 10:21:51	will wti reach 80 in august 2026 from august 4	No	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0x582d13…
08-10 05:58:31	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	160	5¢	$8	0x30cece…
08-09 23:34:22	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	SELL	27	23¢	$6	0xba27c9…
08-09 10:41:55	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507	No	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xa8e9de…
08-09 09:41:24	will wti reach 80 in august 2026 from august 4	No	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x45ad00…
08-09 05:15:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xbaf8e5…
08-09 00:41:46	will ethereum reach 2200 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x3899c4…
08-08 23:21:33	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xde422d…
08-08 23:21:33	Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0xaf848e…
08-08 14:37:12	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	133	6¢	$8	0xfd0fed…
08-08 14:37:12	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	BUY	11	71¢	$8	0x7ff2d4…
08-08 10:12:19	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x33a061…
08-08 00:51:39	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0x0858b0…
08-07 20:18:09	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xd02aae…
08-07 20:14:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026	No	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xaf7ae1…
08-07 19:53:06	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	58	11¢	$6	0x484a7c…
08-07 16:21:31	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0xb2a0af…
08-07 14:52:19	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xaae384…
08-07 10:05:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x9839c5…
08-07 01:08:04	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xf629b5…
08-07 00:37:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0x9cf55b…
08-06 22:57:32	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	61¢	$8	0x0c42ae…
08-06 22:01:23	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x584f4e…
08-06 21:52:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x687c46…
08-06 21:23:14	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xe3280f…
08-06 21:23:08	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xdc2490…
08-06 21:21:45	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x2e3912…
08-06 21:16:29	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0x4449ff…
08-06 15:04:09	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	14	19¢	$3	0xbfd57c…
08-06 15:04:09	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0xae7abe…
08-06 11:16:42	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xbf2a32…
08-06 10:00:02	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	SELL	11	13¢	$1	0xc13224…
08-06 07:13:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x9a235e…
08-06 06:13:18	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	SELL	18	35¢	$6	0xa92a13…
08-06 02:10:42	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x9b0d10…
08-06 02:10:42	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	14¢	$8	0x5c4477…
08-06 00:25:56	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	12	30¢	$3	0xc08d74…
08-05 22:27:39	us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223	Yes	BUY	32	12¢	$4	0x2aae4e…
08-05 19:36:39	will ethereum reach 2000 in august 2026	No	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x6b14eb…
08-05 18:56:09	will ethereum reach 2200 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0xb2b244…
08-05 16:37:06	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x76aead…
08-05 16:37:06	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	7	48¢	$4	0x5e3c57…
08-05 12:51:48	will wti dip to 70 in august 2026	No	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x59c74d…
08-05 12:51:47	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x1d7627…
08-05 11:20:06	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x908e95…
08-05 11:20:06	china x philippines military clash before 2027 20260723214807932	No	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0x80bbed…
08-05 09:20:38	will ethereum reach 2000 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x97f444…
08-05 03:40:36	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	SELL	12	63¢	$8	0xef4e80…
08-05 03:40:36	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xa23cd1…
08-05 01:58:18	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	SELL	11	73¢	$8	0x074481…
08-04 23:26:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0xf247e7…
08-04 23:26:38	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xcf7458…
08-04 23:26:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	16	16¢	$2	0xa40406…
08-04 21:09:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0x28294c…
08-04 21:09:14	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x0a8faf…
08-04 21:09:12	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	16¢	$2	0xe9df82…
08-04 21:09:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xa7f529…
08-04 16:32:33	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x7a5705…
08-04 16:32:33	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x17cd37…
08-04 16:32:32	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	47	16¢	$8	0xb01562…
08-04 16:32:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	16	49¢	$8	0x282483…
08-04 16:32:30	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	47	13¢	$6	0xed1ed4…
08-04 16:32:30	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	107	7¢	$7	0xd634e1…
08-04 14:31:06	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x09829c…
08-04 13:56:56	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xf2f064…
08-04 13:56:56	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0xbf336e…
08-04 13:56:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	48	16¢	$8	0x002a94…
08-04 13:56:54	Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x8fb35d…
08-04 11:00:02	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x006a1c…
08-04 08:54:48	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0x1f573e…
08-04 07:20:15	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x59cfc5…
08-04 06:24:03	will ethereum reach 2500 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xec3344…
08-04 06:24:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xcbb565…
08-04 06:24:03	Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	2¢	$4	0xcad163…
08-04 04:36:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x6ceacc…
08-04 03:43:47	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x8681c2…
08-04 03:43:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x15b38e…
08-04 02:35:54	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0xae6b01…
08-04 02:34:12	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0xdc70f1…