Splendid-Progression — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

Trades

730

lifetime

Volume

$3.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 07-24 21:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

45% — —

Politics

32% 60% +$35

Tech

16% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	16	$89	256	241	+15	open	—	07-25 01:16
gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	11	$67	39	38	+1	open	—	07-08 01:32
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	9	$64	96	43	+53	open	—	07-16 06:04
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	11	$62	75	75	+0	open	—	07-23 11:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	12	$60	183	145	+38	open	—	07-17 16:14
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$56	63	63	+0	open	—	07-07 07:19
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	6	$40	56	56	+1	open	—	07-07 01:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	6	$39	109	109	+0	open	—	07-22 21:20
gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	10	$39	216	195	+21	open	—	07-07 17:51
gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	13	$35	434	434	+0	open	—	07-05 00:17
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	7	$34	187	187	+0	open	—	07-05 15:10
will spy reach 760 in july 2026	5	$34	45	24	+22	open	—	07-24 10:57
israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	7	$33	157	157	+0	open	—	07-01 20:15
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	6	$32	250	198	+52	open	—	07-24 10:57
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	4	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	07-07 23:20
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$31	29	26	+3	open	—	07-10 15:21
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	6	$31	43	43	+0	open	—	07-20 21:04
will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	4	$31	80	65	+15	open	—	07-24 01:10
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	6	$30	48	47	+1	open	—	07-03 14:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	22	$29	313	313	+0	open	—	06-23 21:32
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	5	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	06-21 04:57
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	4	$28	30	30	+0	open	—	07-20 05:56
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	4	$27	43	43	+0	open	—	07-24 01:10
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	4	$25	92	92	+0	open	—	07-19 10:55
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$24	30	9	+22	open	—	07-20 21:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$24	43	43	+0	open	—	07-07 05:08
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	5	$23	27	27	+0	open	—	07-03 18:15
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	4	$23	71	11	+60	open	—	07-07 23:28
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	4	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	06-28 10:58
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	4	$23	21	21	+0	open	—	07-20 11:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 05:57:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0xf44667…
07-25 05:56:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	No	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xe9ad51…
07-25 05:56:03	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	No	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x63497f…
07-25 01:16:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xb6f066…
07-25 01:16:40	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0x5df05e…
07-25 01:16:39	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 31 2026 20260714210903833	No	BUY	101	8¢	$8	0xb86ecc…
07-25 01:16:39	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	30	26¢	$8	0x0badc8…
07-24 21:35:15	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0xcd7dbc…
07-24 21:35:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xf14ff1…
07-24 16:06:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xdd7c60…
07-24 16:06:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcfa21e…
07-24 16:06:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x9e96d4…
07-24 12:19:49	will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x790453…
07-24 11:29:34	will solana reach 90 in july 2026	No	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0xd0969a…
07-24 10:57:54	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	114	6¢	$7	0xda2935…
07-24 10:57:54	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x5f43d1…
07-24 05:54:52	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xc4f096…
07-24 01:10:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xc1bc29…
07-24 01:10:06	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	No	SELL	27	26¢	$7	0xb1fcbf…
07-24 01:10:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 30 20260708212322955	No	BUY	14	56¢	$8	0x6a7e46…
07-24 01:10:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	33	15¢	$5	0x4c994d…
07-23 21:19:52	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0xb94db5…
07-23 12:41:10	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xadaee4…
07-23 11:40:57	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	4	40¢	$2	0x6a797e…
07-23 11:38:57	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x8f9719…
07-23 11:38:09	will openais valuation hit low 750b by december 31 995 138	Yes	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x0e1e66…
07-23 06:04:16	Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	3¢	$2	0x09d8e0…
07-23 01:32:27	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0x9f0726…
07-22 21:20:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	52	14¢	$7	0xec0ca9…
07-22 21:20:28	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	SELL	45	16¢	$7	0x23341e…
07-22 21:20:27	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xad1105…
07-22 16:44:06	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0x2b1718…
07-22 11:23:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	52	14¢	$7	0xda77da…
07-22 11:23:01	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	42	19¢	$8	0x4f2d33…
07-22 11:23:01	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	Yes	BUY	45	18¢	$8	0x4c46e9…
07-21 21:30:12	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x4affff…
07-21 16:24:12	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693 459	Yes	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0x714c78…
07-21 16:22:25	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	SELL	89	4¢	$4	0x8cfea7…
07-21 11:26:21	will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	112	5¢	$6	0x5649dc…
07-21 11:26:21	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x27952c…
07-21 11:26:21	will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x03365b…
07-21 01:15:04	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	77¢	$7	0xd1efcd…
07-21 01:15:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x88509e…
07-21 01:15:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x6c8123…
07-20 21:31:43	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xc9e607…
07-20 21:18:19	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	No	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x5128c7…
07-20 21:04:57	will propr launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xcfbbe4…
07-20 21:04:55	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0xfb5f4b…
07-20 21:04:55	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	54¢	$5	0xf9b701…
07-20 21:04:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	7	54¢	$4	0x6389bb…
07-20 21:04:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x2e93bf…
07-20 17:45:34	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0xad13c8…
07-20 17:17:22	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x2bc2d7…
07-20 17:00:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x89d599…
07-20 11:39:45	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0xb2debf…
07-20 11:30:49	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	No	BUY	9	43¢	$4	0x58edf8…
07-20 11:30:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	16	39¢	$6	0xc9bab9…
07-20 07:12:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x2e6744…
07-20 05:56:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xeaa986…
07-20 05:56:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	9	84¢	$8	0x55c9ac…
07-20 05:56:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x8a5194…
07-19 22:19:58	russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x0e6afd…
07-19 21:02:15	will openais valuation hit low 750b by december 31 995 138	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x875d4b…
07-19 21:02:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x725718…
07-19 16:33:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0x1e2e4b…
07-19 16:02:55	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	SELL	38	20¢	$8	0x2e8552…
07-19 11:26:13	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0xc31fee…
07-19 10:55:01	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	67	11¢	$7	0xdf5c13…
07-19 05:54:37	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xf73d78…
07-19 05:54:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x9fbb49…
07-19 01:59:22	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	11	71¢	$8	0xd0e172…
07-19 00:54:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc24bfd…
07-19 00:54:58	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	67	12¢	$8	0x3f9fc2…
07-18 21:23:48	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	SELL	84	9¢	$8	0x523d07…
07-18 21:23:48	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0x3264ab…
07-18 21:23:48	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x2ab139…
07-18 11:39:57	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	No	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x3d7f50…
07-18 02:16:49	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	23	12¢	$3	0xa7c923…
07-18 02:15:49	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x59b700…
07-18 01:31:48	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x119f3a…
07-17 21:28:36	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x1ced7a…
07-17 21:28:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0x18c6cb…
07-17 17:11:42	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	48¢	$8	0x6e6f87…
07-17 16:14:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0xb5ab6f…
07-17 11:36:49	ethereum above 1800 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	92	9¢	$8	0x8e2934…
07-17 11:08:51	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x167e63…
07-16 23:21:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xd76ebc…
07-16 16:25:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0xc1acac…
07-16 10:57:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x8d8d54…
07-16 10:57:37	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x34451c…
07-16 06:04:49	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	14	55¢	$8	0x1eed80…
07-16 01:03:22	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	41	17¢	$7	0xe8c0dd…
07-16 01:03:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	59	13¢	$8	0xcf56ab…
07-15 16:14:41	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x1fe1c6…
07-15 11:22:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	14	57¢	$8	0xe09857…
07-15 11:22:43	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x7448fb…
07-15 11:22:43	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x06efec…
07-15 11:22:41	will solana reach 90 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x05d5ef…
07-15 01:03:02	will ethereum reach 1900 in july 2026	No	SELL	23	10¢	$2	0xcb977c…
07-15 01:03:02	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x22e95a…