Wiry-Ephyra — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$686

Unrealized P&L

+$160

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

269

Trades

1,332

lifetime

Volume

$49.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$3.13K

27 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-08 17:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Other

44% 48% -$596

Crypto

30% 51% +$1,332

Tech

11% 50% +$85

Politics

11% 77% +$67

Sports

4% 42% -$203

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (27) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	+620	$351	96¢	$593	+$242	05-23 06:58
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+600	$519	88¢	$530	+$10	10-02 09:15
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?	No	+503	$357	95¢	$476	+$119	07-04 16:28
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	+370	$185	96¢	$356	+$171	05-21 23:25
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	+300	$210	96¢	$287	+$77	06-14 17:25
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-199	-$167	97¢	$-194	-$26	05-22 04:13
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+200	$116	77¢	$155	+$39	10-01 10:28
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	+200	$106	50¢	$100	-$6	11-04 05:07
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-100	-$85	94¢	$-94	-$10	11-06 01:59
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	+100	$78	78¢	$78	+$0	11-08 00:58
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+69	$65	97¢	$67	+$1	10-04 10:42
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+1,189	$379	6¢	$65	-$313	06-15 18:06
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+100	$18	30¢	$30	+$12	11-01 18:40
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+706	$147	3¢	$22	-$125	07-06 08:20
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	+437	$31	3¢	$11	-$20	10-30 05:06
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+400	$9	3¢	$11	+$2	11-07 11:37
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+600	$11	2¢	$11	$0	11-07 03:16
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?	Yes	+90	-$1	12¢	$10	+$12	09-15 18:38
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+324	-$15	3¢	$10	+$25	08-09 22:03
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	+220	-$2	4¢	$8	+$11	10-07 11:44
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+40	$20	12¢	$5	-$16	05-04 22:15
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	+100	$12	4¢	$4	-$7	08-29 02:31
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	+200	$3	2¢	$4	+$1	10-29 19:01
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	+400	$4	1¢	$4	+$0	11-07 03:16
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+1,268	$22	0¢	$2	-$20	08-14 04:47
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	+80	$5	1¢	$1	-$4	08-03 08:10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+0	$14	18¢	$0	-$14	08-04 13:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	34	$5.1K	1,747	3,440	-1,693	Yes	-$16	06-01 21:47
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026?	5	$2.0K	1,017	1,017	+0	Yes	+$3	02-02 10:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$2	05-31 13:54
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	25	$1.5K	1,479	1,400	+79	No	-$121	01-28 08:32
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	15	$1.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$309	02-11 12:30
will coinbase be accused of insider trading	16	$970	500	500	+0	No	+$10	02-24 09:40
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	7	$888	600	600	+0	No	+$84	02-04 09:22
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	23	$871	1,730	1,330	+400	Yes	+$181	04-30 03:39
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	35	$833	3,050	2,450	+600	No	-$96	07-16 03:59
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	8	$778	680	580	+100	No	-$47	04-30 11:30
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	11	$776	800	800	+0	No	+$160	02-04 12:43
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	13	$755	900	900	+0	No	+$1	02-02 12:09
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	19	$751	1,050	1,050	+0	No	+$392	03-06 03:01
Hyperlend FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$734	394	394	+0	No	+$13	02-27 17:24
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	2	$732	400	400	+0	No	+$4	01-15 00:35
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?	8	$640	516	700	-184	No	+$326	01-24 18:36
will gold gc hit high 5500 by end of february 743 796 985 593 523 417 437	12	$566	385	385	+0	No	+$87	02-24 10:54
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	11	$560	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	-$560	06-21 23:39
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	5	$552	300	300	+0	open	—	06-18 12:02
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?	11	$552	302	302	+0	open	—	10-26 12:37
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	4	$519	600	0	+600	open	—	10-02 09:15
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?	6	$493	500	212	+288	No	+$13	06-11 21:21
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$459	200	508	-308	Yes	-$69	02-23 08:22
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	14	$451	600	600	+0	No	+$82	03-11 01:19
megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	11	$437	943	643	+300	Yes	+$329	04-30 03:43
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	4	$424	330	330	+0	Argentina	+$216	07-07 17:57
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	7	$398	400	200	+200	open	—	10-01 10:28
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$396	800	0	+800	Yes	+$4	02-27 17:41
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	13	$391	600	600	+0	Yes	+$1	01-22 07:13
will company g be accused of insider trading	4	$391	200	200	+0	No	+$5	02-24 04:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 16:45:31	Paul George: Points O/U 14.5	No	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x434442…
11-08 17:22:22	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	174	23¢	$40	0x9da8e7…
11-08 14:53:37	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-08?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xd6c432…
11-08 14:53:16	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-08?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x4d592a…
11-08 00:58:46	Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xbf6547…
11-07 11:37:01	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$9	0x38d5f0…
11-07 03:16:31	Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0xb27975…
11-07 03:16:12	Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$11	0xd185fc…
11-06 01:59:54	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	71	94¢	$67	0x61c203…
11-04 05:07:30	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xc0544a…
11-03 22:24:25	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x8c24d2…
11-03 19:27:33	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0xa0e7bd…
11-02 08:16:28	Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0xbe6282…
11-01 18:40:37	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x3f4498…
10-31 16:28:40	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x73497c…
10-31 16:11:25	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	130	28¢	$36	0x083d2c…
10-30 05:06:46	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0xf2dae3…
10-30 04:45:31	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x3f3e9f…
10-29 19:01:12	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x153a24…
10-27 21:48:17	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	151	90¢	$136	0xd92997…
10-26 17:28:45	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x110e51…
10-26 17:28:11	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0xb41276…
10-26 12:37:30	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	58	100¢	$58	0x6101a3…
10-25 18:08:54	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	83	99¢	$82	0x5b7e1e…
10-25 18:01:02	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$42	0x18e84b…
10-21 09:35:18	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	190	85¢	$162	0xa8300e…
10-21 03:41:33	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0xa6794e…
10-20 20:24:45	Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x0f4766…
10-20 17:06:41	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	98	51¢	$50	0x0443b8…
10-20 13:11:45	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x4f468f…
10-19 22:56:12	Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xc0c0da…
10-18 16:49:11	Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	40¢	$10	0x1b7375…
10-14 10:38:40	russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad	Yes	SELL	97	6¢	$6	0x25385c…
10-14 10:00:56	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	SELL	103	6¢	$7	0x2c8940…
10-14 03:21:19	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	162	5¢	$8	0x286a88…
10-13 14:58:47	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x5e0f6b…
10-13 07:53:22	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0xe64eda…
10-13 04:03:24	Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$13	0x533dc5…
10-10 18:20:06	Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	200	73¢	$146	0x4243ab…
10-10 18:08:39	Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x7f5e65…
10-10 18:01:30	Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x17bb97…
10-10 18:01:30	Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	90	20¢	$18	0x143403…
10-10 17:23:51	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	130	24¢	$31	0x040202…
10-08 21:26:41	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x689566…
10-07 11:44:25	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	27¢	$26	0xe3964c…
10-07 11:44:04	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	93	27¢	$25	0x9cec25…
10-06 05:38:18	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x211c4b…
10-06 00:06:37	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$13	0x986ef0…
10-06 00:00:11	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	27¢	$10	0xdb7b63…
10-05 22:34:22	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xe0d9c7…
10-04 10:42:52	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	69	95¢	$65	0x582fe7…
10-04 07:49:07	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	290	15¢	$42	0x782d5f…
10-04 07:00:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	134	15¢	$19	0x7361da…
10-04 07:00:14	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	76	15¢	$11	0x36b9f8…
10-02 09:15:50	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x6605c4…
10-01 10:28:54	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	64	70¢	$45	0xe9ac8a…
10-01 05:40:45	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	36	70¢	$25	0x94ca76…
09-27 15:30:18	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xbc6961…
09-27 15:29:32	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0xfcfb8a…
09-27 15:29:17	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x0b3999…
09-26 08:57:45	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0x9ad9a6…
09-26 01:56:03	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	48	64¢	$31	0x09c681…
09-25 23:56:15	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x65b110…
09-25 23:56:15	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	52	64¢	$33	0x22c0c2…
09-25 05:24:50	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x3cded6…
09-24 16:48:33	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$129	0x454292…
09-20 16:47:55	Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5	Under	SELL	38	48¢	$18	0xecae1a…
09-20 16:08:42	Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xa810da…
09-20 15:58:00	Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5	Under	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x07a1a4…
09-18 15:34:57	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0xc9293a…
09-15 18:38:31	Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	300	18¢	$54	0x717cb3…
09-05 15:29:13	epl mac cov 2026 09 05 spread home 1pt5	Manchester City FC	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xe81c4b…
09-05 15:28:39	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Coventry City FC?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xc324e1…
08-29 02:31:10	Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	16¢	$48	0x977cee…
08-26 12:23:21	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	150	86¢	$129	0x39913a…
08-26 12:11:54	Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	289	15¢	$43	0xa33949…
08-25 08:37:06	Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	BUY	111	15¢	$17	0xa3554c…
08-24 18:06:57	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x7686fa…
08-24 18:02:45	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	83	82¢	$68	0xcd295d…
08-24 17:57:52	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x251531…
08-24 16:48:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x74fad6…
08-14 04:47:13	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0x99ad39…
08-14 03:40:19	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x8f6592…
08-14 03:16:10	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x95da7b…
08-14 03:00:45	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xadaea8…
08-14 01:41:39	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xc66794…
08-14 01:18:12	will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	No	SELL	80	82¢	$66	0x6ef87e…
08-13 14:31:06	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	886	1¢	$10	0xb98c23…
08-13 00:35:00	will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	No	BUY	32	59¢	$19	0xb62bc6…
08-12 21:59:04	will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7290e6…
08-12 20:27:00	will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	No	BUY	39	58¢	$23	0xcdaed5…
08-09 22:03:48	Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	176	40¢	$70	0x84340e…
08-06 01:06:29	will xauusd reach 4500 in august 2026	No	BUY	115	71¢	$82	0xf2840f…
08-06 01:01:51	will xauusd reach 4500 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xfa73f0…
08-04 13:33:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	144	56¢	$81	0xc0a847…
08-04 13:16:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x568b5d…
08-04 13:03:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	59	56¢	$33	0x341a8d…
08-03 23:59:42	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	193	6¢	$13	0x6e07cd…
08-03 23:59:32	bitcoin above 62k on august 4 2026	No	BUY	107	7¢	$7	0x65ab1b…
08-03 23:54:14	bitcoin above 66k on august 4 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0xe0f59c…