Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$101
Trades
35
Unique wallets
20
Liquidity
$274
Latest YES mid
45¢
Latest NO mid
55¢
End date
2026-01-01
First seen
2026-05-30
last 08-18 13:06
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $6 | $6 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $23 | $27 | $4 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 13 | $14 | $7 | +$7 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $4 | $33 | $28 |
| Median | 2 | $17 | — | +$17 |
| Below median | 5 | $7 | $3 | +$4 |
| unranked | 9 | $9 | $5 | +$4 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suburban-Ecliptic 0x476c…ce52 | No | +48 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 07-21 11:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | +40 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 07-21 11:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x22cc…ef97 | Yes | +11 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 07-23 08:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +10 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 08-13 01:10 |
| Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $6 | 3 | 08-18 13:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-12 02:01 |
| Smug-Effacement 0xaf13…72ca | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-25 23:22 |
| Pure-Eyeliner 0x1abc…45e7 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-25 23:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 5 | 07-20 03:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | +3 | $1 | $6 | 2 | 07-22 06:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xa7ec…e964 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 11:32 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-02 06:48 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 13:06:03 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x5ffe85… |
| 08-18 13:06:03 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x5ffe85… |
| 08-18 11:39:28 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x9319ea… |
| 08-18 11:39:28 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0x9319ea… |
| 08-13 01:10:15 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x9ddb0b… |
| 08-13 01:10:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0x9ddb0b… |
| 08-12 02:01:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0x4b4d70… |
| 08-12 02:01:24 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 44¢ | $2 | 0x4b4d70… |
| 07-23 08:15:25 | (anonymous) 0x22cc…ef97 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 50¢ | $6 | 0xe38e1a… |
| 07-23 08:15:25 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 11 | 50¢ | $6 | 0xe38e1a… |
| 07-22 06:58:09 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | SELL | 10 | 55¢ | $6 | 0x90adf6… |
| 07-22 06:58:09 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 5 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x90adf6… |
| 07-22 06:58:09 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x90adf6… |
| 07-21 11:32:21 | (anonymous) 0xa7ec…e964 | No | BUY | 2 | 58¢ | $1 | 0x93cc39… |
| 07-21 11:32:21 | Palatable-Avalanche 0xb401…df2a | No | SELL | 2 | 58¢ | $1 | 0x93cc39… |
| 07-21 11:30:37 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 43¢ | $17 | 0xb7b6be… |
| 07-21 11:30:37 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | BUY | 8 | 44¢ | $3 | 0xb7b6be… |
| 07-21 11:30:37 | Suburban-Ecliptic 0x476c…ce52 | No | BUY | 48 | 57¢ | $27 | 0xb7b6be… |
| 07-20 03:49:42 | (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | BUY | 0 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xa4cf35… |
| 07-20 03:49:42 | Selfish-Birth 0x4f34…4d1e | No | SELL | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0xa4cf35… |
| 07-20 03:49:42 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 76¢ | $1 | 0xa4cf35… |
| 07-19 14:31:51 | Optimal-Cantaloupe 0x0784…f127 | No | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xd1f552… |
| 07-19 14:31:51 | (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | BUY | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xd1f552… |
| 07-18 13:57:48 | Third-Vampire 0xb991…ba03 | No | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x848d77… |
| 07-18 13:57:48 | (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | BUY | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x848d77… |
| 07-14 05:25:46 | (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | BUY | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xd24e40… |
| 07-14 05:25:46 | (anonymous) 0xe20e…1055 | No | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0xd24e40… |
| 07-11 01:23:22 | (anonymous) 0xe6c4…d28e | No | BUY | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x7d8d24… |
| 07-11 01:23:22 | (anonymous) 0x3541…b4b1 | No | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x7d8d24… |
| 07-02 06:48:10 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 2 | 37¢ | $1 | 0x4e27b4… |
| 07-02 06:48:10 | Intrepid-Grandfather 0x4f68…0714 | No | SELL | 2 | 37¢ | $1 | 0x4e27b4… |
| 06-25 23:22:07 | Smug-Effacement 0xaf13…72ca | Yes | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x0e67d0… |
| 06-25 23:22:07 | Pure-Eyeliner 0x1abc…45e7 | No | BUY | 5 | 50¢ | $2 | 0x0e67d0… |
| 05-30 08:22:00 | (anonymous) 0xe20e…1055 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0xdeee00… |
| 05-30 08:22:00 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0xdeee00… |