Palatable-Avalanche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$844

Unrealized P&L

-$155

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

265

Trades

3,824

lifetime

Volume

$557.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$146

Open exposure

$11.2K

21 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

62% 63% +$5,941

Politics

27% 55% -$4,626

Tech

6% 65% -$2,531

Crypto

5% 67% +$350

Sports

0% 67% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 67 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	+2,801	$1,438	95¢	$2.7K	+$1,233	10-23 02:17
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+1,918	$1,172	94¢	$1.8K	+$638	10-23 02:16
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,700	-$1,221	91¢	$-1539	-$319	09-16 18:13
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,160	-$1,134	97¢	$-1130	+$4	09-11 02:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,000	-$940	99¢	$-990	-$50	06-13 06:30
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	+1,000	$850	93¢	$926	+$76	07-05 04:05
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+644	$2,427	84¢	$545	-$1,882	08-20 14:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-500	-$265	92¢	$-462	-$197	06-07 01:16
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+433	-$249	92¢	$401	+$649	09-08 14:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-398	-$376	99¢	$-395	-$19	06-06 21:58
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	+200	$101	60¢	$119	+$18	06-16 11:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+644	$390	16¢	$100	-$290	08-20 16:25
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$38	44¢	$44	+$6	09-02 23:49
USDC depeg by December 31?	No	+30	$30	99¢	$30	$0	10-23 02:22
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	No	+15	$12	79¢	$12	+$0	08-30 06:14
natoeu troops fighting in ukraine by december 31 2026	No	+7	$7	95¢	$7	+$0	08-13 08:43
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	No	+4	$3	97¢	$4	+$1	06-02 23:40
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	+15	$3	21¢	$3	+$0	05-05 21:07
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-3	-$1	12¢	$-0	+$1	06-01 23:47
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Yes	+1	-$22	3¢	$0	+$22	06-02 23:38
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+0	$45	6¢	$0	-$45	10-04 05:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	115	$39.3K	22,370	21,129	+1,240	Yes	+$2,347	02-28 15:23
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt252pt50 in march	311	$30.5K	26,417	30,913	-4,496	Yes	+$2,692	04-10 14:20
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	40	$26.9K	20,288	18,999	+1,289	open	—	08-20 16:25
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	49	$26.4K	25,993	10,612	+15,381	No	-$5,041	08-20 17:40
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	25	$23.9K	23,682	11,881	+11,801	Yes	+$158	09-01 18:10
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	11	$20.1K	10,131	10,131	+0	Yes	+$150	09-02 15:45
will a minecraft movie be the top grossing movie of 2025	1	$20.0K	0	20,000	-20,000	Yes	-$20	01-05 00:39
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?	115	$17.6K	19,553	13,688	+5,865	No	-$1,736	01-26 12:14
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?	22	$10.7K	8,309	8,015	+294	Yes	+$258	01-26 00:59
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	8	$10.2K	6,000	6,000	+0	Yes	+$4	04-08 00:14
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	12	$10.1K	10,142	0	+10,142	No	+$10	05-11 14:56
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$10	05-09 06:30
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$10.0K	5,000	5,000	+0	Yes	+$10	04-08 00:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	24	$9.6K	5,882	5,702	+180	No	+$454	04-22 00:52
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	38	$9.0K	7,240	7,240	+0	open	—	08-20 16:30
will superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025 845	1	$7.7K	0	7,740	-7,740	Yes	-$8	01-05 00:43
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	20	$7.7K	5,125	5,125	+0	Yes	-$420	03-04 02:33
gpt ads by march 31 269 364 978	19	$6.9K	3,302	3,940	-637	Yes	-$29	01-26 15:02
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	19	$6.9K	4,427	3,994	+433	open	—	09-08 14:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	138	$6.7K	1,761	9,901	-8,140	No	-$417	06-26 23:16
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt502pt75 in march	226	$6.7K	13,344	6,449	+6,895	No	+$236	04-10 14:40
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	17	$6.2K	4,034	4,034	+0	No	+$135	01-27 07:43
will lilo and stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025	6	$6.1K	333	5,732	-5,398	Yes	-$5	01-05 08:36
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	12	$5.8K	3,200	3,200	+0	No	+$174	01-27 08:01
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?	52	$5.6K	2,174	6,996	-4,822	Yes	+$361	06-19 08:20
Will Ethena reach $1.20 by December 31, 2026?	2	$5.6K	5,735	0	+5,735	open	—	09-29 00:17
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?	19	$5.1K	7,217	5,217	+2,000	No	-$189	01-25 22:32
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	26	$4.6K	3,488	3,988	-500	No	-$352	02-02 03:03
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	11	$4.6K	2,343	2,343	+0	Yes	+$58	09-02 15:48
will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt002pt25 in march	26	$4.3K	4,283	46	+4,237	No	+$57	04-10 12:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:03:32	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	202	53¢	$107	0x7b4032…
10-27 09:00:38	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x75ac0e…
10-27 09:00:38	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x67d494…
10-27 08:52:35	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x506b6e…
10-27 04:58:47	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x6c9936…
10-27 04:58:45	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x33ebb9…
10-27 03:58:23	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$7	0x3e51a5…
10-26 18:09:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	77¢	$46	0xaf1a4c…
10-26 18:09:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	203	77¢	$157	0x513bd0…
10-26 18:09:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x564d45…
10-26 06:36:21	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xc5c284…
10-26 06:36:21	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	64	53¢	$34	0xb5445d…
10-26 03:19:29	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xd8cd22…
10-26 03:19:09	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	86	53¢	$45	0xa873cb…
10-26 03:18:59	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5ab897…
10-26 03:18:53	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x1ba0cd…
10-25 13:09:59	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	53¢	$0	0x80b3b0…
10-25 13:08:27	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xd046a3…
10-25 13:07:51	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x3b831a…
10-25 12:00:17	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x98c637…
10-25 09:04:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xdbe1c8…
10-25 08:00:17	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x093863…
10-25 07:01:08	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe16721…
10-25 07:01:06	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe534df…
10-25 06:48:24	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in October?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x3fdb09…
10-25 06:45:39	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in October?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xa68ccd…
10-25 06:43:36	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0x9fbc11…
10-25 06:43:29	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	SELL	16	69¢	$11	0x78d82a…
10-25 06:43:23	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0x2f5c5c…
10-25 06:42:33	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x1f7ba4…
10-25 06:40:23	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	SELL	40	61¢	$24	0x191915…
10-25 06:35:21	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	306	53¢	$161	0x85a7aa…
10-25 06:33:02	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xe3172a…
10-25 06:31:12	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Yes	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xd97a83…
10-25 06:31:12	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5ec2e5…
10-25 06:27:26	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x081bad…
10-25 06:25:57	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	No	BUY	155	75¢	$116	0x0d8435…
10-25 06:24:42	Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x257010…
10-25 06:24:38	Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x27164d…
10-23 22:30:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	79	19¢	$15	0xe83a4b…
10-23 21:03:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	186	81¢	$151	0x63d1ab…
10-23 19:08:14	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xbaaf0d…
10-23 19:08:14	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October?	No	BUY	136	98¢	$134	0x0811c3…
10-23 17:48:57	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in October?	No	BUY	41	90¢	$37	0xbf3da4…
10-23 10:16:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0x7c2cad…
10-23 09:01:23	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x52d398…
10-23 07:34:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0x58757e…
10-23 02:22:02	USDC depeg by December 31?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x3e0cf7…
10-23 02:19:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xefbf45…
10-23 02:19:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xd3c652…
10-23 02:17:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	395	21¢	$83	0x6a85da…
10-23 02:17:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	1,432	89¢	$1,275	0x98b946…
10-23 02:16:50	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0xdc5920…
10-22 12:36:44	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	264	82¢	$216	0x5ef0c1…
10-22 08:34:26	DAI depeg by December 31?	No	BUY	193	97¢	$187	0x311682…
10-22 08:33:26	Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3c8aed…
10-22 08:33:21	Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	95¢	$53	0xea16ea…
10-22 08:32:45	Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x9fb61a…
10-22 08:32:42	Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x622699…
10-22 08:32:33	Will Ethena reach $0.80 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$39	0x3d3369…
10-22 08:32:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x257860…
10-22 08:32:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$201	0x4d5fea…
10-22 08:32:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x3d276a…
10-14 10:54:16	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	67	81¢	$55	0x64f6ff…
10-13 20:55:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	65	17¢	$11	0x5bf61d…
10-13 20:54:27	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	25¢	$10	0xfce877…
10-13 20:52:39	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	248	16¢	$40	0xfcd920…
10-13 20:52:12	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	918	12¢	$110	0x7e610b…
10-13 20:48:22	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	573	69¢	$397	0x923750…
10-13 20:43:57	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	90¢	$71	0x8fc691…
10-13 20:43:39	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0xb69c14…
10-13 20:40:15	Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0x3d983e…
10-13 20:40:09	Will Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	96¢	$93	0x688114…
10-13 17:52:39	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x245f58…
10-13 17:51:16	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xf4cd55…
10-13 17:51:16	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xd5f4b4…
10-13 17:51:16	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	87¢	$23	0xa9ac7a…
10-13 17:51:16	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	88¢	$81	0x88342c…
10-13 16:57:01	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x3c523c…
10-13 16:18:46	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc6ffb2…
10-13 16:18:46	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x1bbb2c…
10-13 10:55:20	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in September?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x16ed19…
10-13 02:35:30	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x6e37f0…
10-13 02:35:29	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	Yes	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xe9cc31…
10-13 02:35:23	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September?	Yes	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x5f6168…
10-13 02:35:15	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	75	11¢	$8	0x0868b9…
10-12 15:05:12	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September?	Yes	BUY	140	55¢	$77	0xc7bf00…
10-12 15:04:33	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	140	12¢	$17	0x587c87…
10-12 15:04:18	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	140	11¢	$15	0xc82cfb…
10-12 13:13:59	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	92¢	$32	0x188205…
10-12 13:11:56	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x0752b6…
10-12 13:11:54	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x90da59…
10-12 13:10:54	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x1f8fa3…
10-12 13:10:45	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x02ef0b…
10-12 13:09:39	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	745	88¢	$656	0x5cdd2c…
10-12 13:08:35	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0xb9a2ec…
10-12 11:32:38	Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	265	82¢	$218	0xa244e7…
10-11 14:27:21	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in September?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x99ab25…
10-11 11:42:30	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	26	13¢	$3	0x46f284…
10-11 11:42:26	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September?	Yes	BUY	26	48¢	$12	0x16f244…