Personal-Bake 0x12d6cc…2cf2a8
whale hot
3Unusual bets: 2 positions →
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$438.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$50.2K
Hit rate
84.5%
Resolved
571
Trades
83,301
lifetime
Volume
$30.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$366
Open exposure
$1.11M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 23:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 152 days
Categories
Politics
77% 78% +$371,757
Other
21% 83% +$62,326
Crypto
1% 64% +$3,152
Sports
0% 86% +$1,622
Tech
0% 83% +$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
62 active days in 12wk • peak 1607 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +290,186 $226,882 96¢ $278.6K +$51,697 10-15 20:43
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +154,731 $153,749 100¢ $154.6K +$827 10-13 12:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +131,562 $101,689 94¢ $124.3K +$22,637 10-27 20:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +113,000 $112,446 100¢ $112.6K +$158 10-08 12:08
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +51,503 $39,994 90¢ $46.1K +$6,100 10-18 16:56
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +42,758 $35,402 94¢ $40.0K +$4,576 10-27 22:23
israel x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +42,961 $30,446 64¢ $27.3K -$3,165 10-27 18:37
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +26,281 $25,235 99¢ $26.1K +$876 10-25 06:45
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +25,648 $23,072 94¢ $24.2K +$1,153 10-23 16:39
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +32,265 $21,271 66¢ $21.5K +$185 10-26 11:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +21,757 $18,507 98¢ $21.3K +$2,815 10-27 22:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +27,616 $17,334 76¢ $21.0K +$3,655 10-27 22:20
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 15 Yes +39,223 $19,967 50¢ $19.4K -$551 10-27 22:36
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +19,451 $17,743 97¢ $18.8K +$1,037 10-18 17:27
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +21,531 $18,050 80¢ $17.2K -$890 09-17 12:54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +22,842 $15,139 74¢ $16.8K +$1,650 10-27 22:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +41,424 $15,352 36¢ $15.1K -$233 10-27 20:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +36,754 $9,542 36¢ $13.4K +$3,873 10-26 21:29
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +13,000 $4,260 99¢ $12.9K +$8,610 10-27 19:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +12,609 $12,384 100¢ $12.6K +$193 10-19 17:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +281,183 $62,376 4¢ $11.2K -$51,129 10-15 13:03
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? No +11,164 $10,664 99¢ $11.1K +$393 10-23 23:10
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? No +10,777 $10,519 99¢ $10.7K +$199 10-19 14:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +23,627 $9,886 40¢ $9.5K -$435 10-27 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +18,227 $7,561 50¢ $9.2K +$1,644 10-21 20:33
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +24,749 $8,319 34¢ $8.3K -$27 10-27 23:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +8,324 $4,796 96¢ $8.0K +$3,195 10-15 12:38
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +7,829 $6,715 99¢ $7.8K +$1,039 10-27 17:38
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +73,001 $17,565 11¢ $7.7K -$9,900 10-27 22:24
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -8,936 -$7,693 86¢ $-7658 +$35 10-26 12:41