Personal-Bake — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7.98K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

Trades

56,758

lifetime

Volume

$19.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$334

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 16:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

85% 75% +$7,869

Other

14% 100% +$113

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 902 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	678	$1.51M	1,404,375	578,739	+825,636	open	—	03-04 19:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1,206	$715.5K	577,300	532,518	+44,782	open	—	06-18 00:28
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2,356	$543.2K	619,831	412,684	+207,148	open	—	04-08 21:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	964	$538.8K	376,355	395,664	-19,308	open	—	03-24 18:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1,695	$519.3K	655,680	600,634	+55,047	open	—	05-30 02:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2,172	$516.0K	456,937	382,239	+74,698	open	—	04-01 15:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	500	$515.0K	607,775	324,059	+283,716	open	—	06-17 20:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,826	$469.7K	544,772	438,109	+106,663	open	—	04-08 20:12
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	80	$405.3K	405,573	135,138	+270,435	open	—	02-28 13:05
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1,732	$364.9K	697,700	640,802	+56,899	open	—	02-28 00:04
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	634	$330.9K	406,282	202,282	+204,000	open	—	06-18 00:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1,584	$296.2K	323,526	224,966	+98,559	open	—	04-26 07:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	274	$282.2K	144,498	158,125	-13,627	open	—	04-23 18:15
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	1,549	$275.6K	117,640	185,245	-67,605	open	—	02-01 13:17
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1,333	$237.0K	437,912	429,326	+8,586	open	—	01-31 22:02
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	28	$225.4K	106,798	119,000	-12,202	open	—	02-03 22:57
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	444	$211.3K	131,984	130,888	+1,096	open	—	05-25 21:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1,220	$207.9K	253,757	198,171	+55,586	open	—	04-22 14:29
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	756	$195.8K	346,919	273,964	+72,955	open	—	02-28 00:08
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	239	$188.5K	126,225	116,156	+10,069	open	—	01-07 23:42
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	70	$183.4K	122,229	61,469	+60,760	open	—	02-03 20:07
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	425	$180.9K	170,066	112,513	+57,553	open	—	02-23 22:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	369	$174.1K	544,960	187,710	+357,251	open	—	06-17 23:45
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	392	$167.6K	191,975	119,421	+72,553	open	—	06-06 22:16
will the us next strike iran on march 2 2026 et	22	$166.4K	166,573	36,004	+130,569	open	—	02-28 12:19
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	136	$165.4K	89,969	93,169	-3,200	open	—	03-12 17:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	401	$164.0K	164,787	120,116	+44,671	open	—	05-25 08:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	359	$159.0K	159,546	138,111	+21,435	open	—	05-22 21:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	67	$155.2K	122,857	45,436	+77,422	open	—	03-04 00:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	441	$151.4K	1,592,969	171,657	+1,421,312	open	—	03-04 19:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 16:10:16	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x392b9e…
07-19 10:27:03	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,200	95¢	$1,140	0x8b3923…
07-19 09:24:36	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x538bf7…
07-19 09:02:46	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x9b42b2…
07-19 08:51:31	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	922	27¢	$249	0x98a09c…
07-19 08:51:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	78	27¢	$21	0xaf111f…
07-18 09:19:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0xf65b07…
07-10 21:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	850	92¢	$782	0x626d75…
07-10 21:40:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	24,667	7¢	$1,727	0x09bc05…
07-10 20:11:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	24,650	5¢	$1,233	0x4e8756…
07-10 18:39:50	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	220	93¢	$204	0x53c1d2…
07-10 18:31:40	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	61	93¢	$57	0x1cd48e…
07-09 11:50:40	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	70	85¢	$60	0x2fb612…
07-09 11:48:26	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	321	85¢	$274	0x773045…
07-09 11:46:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	1,009	85¢	$862	0x89659b…
07-08 20:22:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	200	76¢	$151	0xdbd0e6…
07-08 20:04:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	780	80¢	$628	0x259738…
07-08 20:04:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	420	80¢	$338	0xf28b88…
07-06 07:12:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,454	15¢	$518	0x93e6c4…
07-06 06:34:38	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	93¢	$1,860	0xa4cc39…
06-30 00:37:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,622	16¢	$259	0x46aa6d…
06-30 00:32:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x62ca15…
06-29 23:38:14	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xfbe2c3…
06-29 22:58:05	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	31	16¢	$5	0xdd6951…
06-29 22:50:41	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x3eec17…
06-29 22:40:44	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x632f93…
06-29 22:30:23	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	16¢	$7	0x263ee2…
06-29 20:25:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x615e8d…
06-29 19:30:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x5344b5…
06-29 18:52:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x45aaf1…
06-29 17:43:47	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	743	16¢	$119	0x06b281…
06-29 16:43:29	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	155	16¢	$25	0x36a4d8…
06-29 16:19:35	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x2f1332…
06-29 15:56:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x122b58…
06-29 15:24:04	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x183935…
06-29 14:57:31	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0xbbb3a4…
06-29 12:53:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	130	16¢	$21	0x965298…
06-29 12:47:26	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x575957…
06-29 12:40:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	25	16¢	$4	0x160ea1…
06-29 11:54:44	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xf10e47…
06-29 08:38:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x91be9f…
06-29 08:25:41	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x399a37…
06-26 10:10:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	18	12¢	$2	0xac4430…
06-26 09:45:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	87	12¢	$10	0x84cd16…
06-26 09:22:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x3fb2d8…
06-26 07:39:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0xa3e8c7…
06-26 07:02:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4	12¢	$0	0x17cfc4…
06-26 07:01:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	603	12¢	$72	0x5968f4…
06-26 06:22:23	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7,555	16¢	$1,209	0x0d61e9…
06-23 06:45:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5,920	3¢	$198	0x42d9d8…
06-18 13:55:25	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3,642	16¢	$583	0xebd175…
06-18 07:42:59	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,200	16¢	$352	0x0dbfc1…
06-18 06:42:59	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	6¢	$5	0xd87a59…
06-18 00:33:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x710351…
06-18 00:32:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xab1b2f…
06-18 00:32:47	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xffa57c…
06-18 00:32:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd20f6a…
06-18 00:32:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x7ece8f…
06-18 00:32:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xee3179…
06-18 00:32:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3cf050…
06-18 00:32:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe17a3a…
06-18 00:32:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd0cba8…
06-18 00:32:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xb66393…
06-18 00:32:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x92575d…
06-18 00:32:29	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	829	100¢	$828	0x37c7cd…
06-18 00:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xd75927…
06-18 00:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9f330f…
06-18 00:28:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xd265e0…
06-18 00:28:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,660	100¢	$1,658	0x7896aa…
06-18 00:13:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10,200	1¢	$61	0x102aa6…
06-17 23:45:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	13,600	0¢	$27	0x5e30e6…
06-17 23:04:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x046fa8…
06-17 23:03:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x94bfab…
06-17 23:03:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x726c06…
06-17 23:03:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x41733f…
06-17 23:03:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xe25ddb…
06-17 23:03:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc697ca…
06-17 23:03:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa8703c…
06-17 23:03:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x9d487a…
06-17 23:03:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8a17bc…
06-17 23:03:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	726	100¢	$725	0x7ff2a4…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xe1fbe3…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xcbe359…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa34b5e…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x56a279…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x304a6f…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0fa9aa…
06-17 23:00:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x03e3a8…
06-17 23:00:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	19,841	100¢	$19,821	0x48eac8…
06-17 22:32:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0x970805…
06-17 21:41:13	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x8aaf95…
06-17 21:05:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xe7aae5…
06-17 20:41:47	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	65	17¢	$11	0xd4214a…
06-17 20:39:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	17¢	$34	0x18982f…
06-17 20:07:05	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	548	100¢	$548	0xcd0c03…
06-17 20:04:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1e92c1…
06-17 20:03:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,873	100¢	$1,871	0x6fd084…
06-17 20:03:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72,037	100¢	$71,965	0x8a19de…
06-17 19:55:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x05dfc1…
06-17 19:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0xd5a248…