Unripe-Exhaustion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$43

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

Trades

573

lifetime

Volume

$15.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$467

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-12 11:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

40% 50% $-33

Sports

31% — —

Politics

25% 0% $-10

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+226	$187	78¢	$177	$-10	06-12 11:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-151	$-138	92¢	$-138	$-1	06-10 10:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	+100	$89	97¢	$97	+$8	06-05 13:28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+55	$27	54¢	$30	+$3	06-05 13:28
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	+100	$27	26¢	$26	$-2	06-10 10:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	4	$379	300	100	+200	open	—	03-08 17:08
will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19	4	$300	152	152	+0	open	—	04-21 14:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	3	$294	150	150	+0	open	—	03-02 22:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$289	160	160	+0	open	—	05-08 13:15
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	9	$267	265	42	+223	open	—	05-28 09:47
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	9	$256	226	211	+15	open	—	04-13 11:34
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	13	$235	238	238	+0	open	—	04-17 08:27
will turkey strike iran by march 31	4	$218	115	115	+0	open	—	03-19 07:41
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 luge mens doubles wendlarlt ger	5	$216	300	0	+300	open	—	02-11 16:04
will bsw win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	02-27 16:20
will fdp win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	02-27 16:44
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 biathlon mens 10km sprint erik perrot fra	7	$194	111	111	+0	open	—	02-13 16:29
will 25 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	2	$194	200	0	+200	open	—	04-05 09:47
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	05-23 16:40
will 20 29 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	2	$189	198	0	+198	open	—	04-10 07:36
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating mens 10000m timothy loubineaud fra	1	$189	200	0	+200	open	—	02-13 11:42
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 alpine mens slalom lucas pinheiro braathen bra	3	$189	105	105	+0	open	—	02-16 13:15
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$187	109	109	+0	open	—	03-11 10:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$187	226	0	+226	open	—	06-12 11:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$177	195	0	+195	open	—	03-26 05:30
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$176	186	0	+186	open	—	02-28 06:54
will kuwait strike iran by march 31	3	$174	125	75	+50	open	—	03-30 14:57
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating mens 10000m metodej jilek cze	7	$167	180	0	+180	open	—	02-13 16:37
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	8	$166	93	93	+0	open	—	04-24 10:29
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 speed skating womens 1000m femke kok ned	4	$146	219	0	+219	open	—	02-09 17:35
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	10	$144	100	100	+0	open	—	04-21 16:18
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$138	0	151	-151	open	—	06-10 10:40
will 30 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19	3	$137	100	50	+50	open	—	04-20 12:51
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion	5	$136	200	0	+200	open	—	05-06 08:52
military action against iran ends by march 25 2026	5	$135	145	0	+145	open	—	03-23 19:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 11:45:48	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x445332…
06-12 11:44:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xe8a09f…
06-10 10:40:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	151	91¢	$138	0xbeeab3…
06-10 10:28:43	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x7e1582…
06-10 10:23:06	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xddef74…
06-08 18:13:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0xda278b…
06-07 11:31:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xb9ed23…
06-05 14:15:00	will anthropic ipo by september 15 2026 415	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x6632ed…
06-05 13:28:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	49¢	$27	0xbdbde2…
06-05 13:28:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x3c54f4…
06-05 09:13:46	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xa82541…
06-03 14:35:18	Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	46	20¢	$9	0xb310f6…
06-03 09:11:37	Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x5437ff…
06-03 08:49:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x161e40…
06-02 11:46:53	Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x519d4d…
05-30 12:08:27	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	Yes	BUY	110	14¢	$15	0x6aca69…
05-30 10:58:25	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x5ee697…
05-29 09:15:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	70	99¢	$70	0xc2c90a…
05-28 22:16:32	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xd29913…
05-28 09:47:04	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$42	0xbb0db2…
05-27 22:58:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0xf67027…
05-26 13:36:51	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x06a26c…
05-25 09:48:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xddd1aa…
05-24 13:45:06	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xcbe87d…
05-24 13:44:14	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0x70e2e4…
05-24 13:42:06	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x4f4ef1…
05-24 13:41:42	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0xdd0562…
05-24 13:40:46	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xeaa20f…
05-24 09:59:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	25	54¢	$14	0x68918b…
05-23 21:56:36	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	55	30¢	$16	0xcf78d6…
05-23 18:11:16	Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	VfB Stuttgart	BUY	22	57¢	$13	0x69c026…
05-23 18:00:41	FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	22	62¢	$14	0x70396b…
05-23 16:40:58	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd75318…
05-21 10:17:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xdbe4e0…
05-20 19:04:04	World Championships: USA vs. Germany	Germany	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x71d073…
05-20 19:04:04	World Championships: USA vs. Germany	Germany	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x259010…
05-18 18:16:00	World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland	Germany	BUY	33	17¢	$6	0xde5765…
05-18 18:14:55	World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland	Germany	BUY	67	17¢	$11	0xd57cb2…
05-17 09:29:05	Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xa17100…
05-15 09:54:38	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0xdafd93…
05-14 18:13:46	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	23	85¢	$20	0xf289ce…
05-14 17:51:33	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x6c2ce6…
05-14 17:29:07	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xe198e7…
05-13 17:59:50	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xf02919…
05-13 17:52:43	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x4136e9…
05-10 10:05:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$43	0x2f9e27…
05-08 16:42:05	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0xbbd06b…
05-08 16:27:25	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x69deb0…
05-08 13:15:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	160	100¢	$160	0xa8e30d…
05-06 21:59:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xf73493…
05-06 13:03:04	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x260843…
05-06 13:03:04	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0628f5…
05-06 12:36:44	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x7fc1b5…
05-06 08:52:28	UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xa3ac5e…
05-04 07:42:16	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xd412f7…
05-01 15:12:10	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x07c4fb…
05-01 14:19:44	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xa6919e…
05-01 13:56:40	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xe7c28c…
05-01 12:42:56	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x0229d0…
05-01 12:31:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x1f1d88…
05-01 12:26:44	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	32	86¢	$27	0x2cc8e0…
05-01 09:48:06	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	18	86¢	$16	0xdde1fe…
05-01 08:12:08	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xffbdb8…
04-30 09:18:26	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x95ce7d…
04-29 16:29:04	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xcd6a08…
04-28 09:44:42	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0xdc4377…
04-28 09:10:16	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xa39528…
04-28 09:08:50	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x5a1160…
04-28 08:33:06	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1eca8b…
04-28 08:15:10	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	55	15¢	$8	0xb25181…
04-27 13:42:00	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xefcc71…
04-27 11:41:50	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xdefff4…
04-27 09:43:54	Major US official out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	25¢	$7	0x07a943…
04-27 09:29:16	Major US official out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x6c23b9…
04-27 09:16:38	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xdc1327…
04-27 09:16:26	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x2a263b…
04-27 09:14:42	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x64a866…
04-27 09:09:24	Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x4443a3…
04-27 08:55:46	Major US official out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x9ef3ff…
04-26 13:19:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	66	86¢	$57	0x866793…
04-26 12:45:32	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	39	25¢	$10	0xad3d1a…
04-26 12:15:14	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xb22d59…
04-26 09:07:50	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	35	90¢	$32	0xe06544…
04-25 15:17:08	Will St. Pauli be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?	No	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0xcddd88…
04-25 08:25:50	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x701698…
04-25 08:01:26	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x9843d3…
04-24 10:29:34	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x85d3f8…
04-24 10:29:34	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	45	99¢	$45	0x7b6fda…
04-24 10:29:30	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x74c8db…
04-24 08:26:18	Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xbd126e…
04-24 08:21:52	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0xd3dd12…
04-24 06:57:16	Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x40d818…
04-24 03:13:42	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x63df33…
04-24 02:17:26	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe97490…
04-24 01:16:10	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xc38d30…
04-24 00:17:42	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc0c87a…
04-24 00:16:30	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x8e186c…
04-23 11:27:26	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xc75009…
04-23 09:11:30	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xccff37…
04-23 09:11:24	Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0x4880cb…