Vacant-Freedom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$122

Unrealized P&L

+$405

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

3,549

lifetime

Volume

$2.26M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$636

Open exposure

$10.5K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% 50% +$12

Other

39% 100% +$110

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+7,984	$7,796	98¢	$7.8K	+$52	06-05 08:59
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-2,679	$-2,508	93¢	$-2486	+$21	06-02 08:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-1,000	$-506	18¢	$-175	+$332	05-28 19:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	293	$186.7K	121,256	70,927	+50,328	open	—	03-04 18:51
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	79	$133.0K	70,835	63,834	+7,001	open	—	05-21 03:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$97.9K	96,527	44,377	+52,151	open	—	06-03 18:50
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	200	$79.8K	56,969	31,791	+25,178	open	—	02-02 15:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$79.6K	49,900	29,900	+20,000	open	—	04-08 23:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	104	$70.7K	39,455	33,917	+5,537	open	—	05-25 17:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	44	$67.6K	55,047	15,047	+40,000	open	—	03-31 15:47
will iran strike israel on march 10	15	$54.8K	35,000	20,000	+15,000	open	—	03-16 11:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$54.4K	52,153	2,500	+49,653	open	—	04-10 12:31
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	9	$49.9K	50,000	0	+50,000	Yes	+$110	05-04 00:16
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	38	$47.4K	33,500	14,000	+19,500	open	—	06-07 23:17
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$45.0K	45,000	0	+45,000	open	—	03-18 18:00
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$42.9K	43,000	0	+43,000	open	—	03-25 00:55
Will the US strike Iran next?	41	$41.8K	35,817	16,743	+19,075	open	—	03-02 00:03
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	49	$40.4K	46,957	41,457	+5,500	open	—	01-02 01:25
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	32	$40.3K	24,500	15,905	+8,595	open	—	02-08 01:56
Will the US strike Somalia next?	55	$40.2K	22,235	22,177	+58	open	—	01-27 23:37
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	92	$38.3K	23,231	15,460	+7,771	open	—	03-11 00:44
Will the US strike Iran next?	49	$38.2K	31,568	22,314	+9,254	open	—	01-30 00:00
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	4	$37.0K	37,000	0	+37,000	open	—	03-29 14:47
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	48	$34.9K	27,500	7,499	+20,001	open	—	05-21 22:14
will gta 6 cost 100	39	$30.4K	19,663	10,750	+8,913	open	—	02-28 20:42
iran closes its airspace by june 15	8	$30.0K	30,000	0	+30,000	open	—	06-09 18:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	32	$28.0K	18,096	10,754	+7,342	open	—	05-11 17:32
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$26.1K	26,200	0	+26,200	open	—	04-30 20:05
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	7	$25.3K	25,350	0	+25,350	open	—	04-30 23:20
will trump say waste this week march 1	4	$25.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-05 00:49
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	1	$25.0K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-12 16:00
Will the US strike Iran next?	11	$24.7K	19,791	5,000	+14,791	open	—	01-27 23:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	45	$24.7K	12,636	12,801	-165	open	—	02-08 19:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 18:33:25	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	7,272	100¢	$7,265	0x1e6ed7…
06-09 18:30:00	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xdc2a7f…
06-09 18:25:46	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0xeaa668…
06-09 18:23:36	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	1,410	100¢	$1,409	0x490bc5…
06-09 18:17:21	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,985	0x857ead…
06-09 18:09:24	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x3492c6…
06-09 18:05:57	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x049639…
06-09 18:05:52	iran closes its airspace by june 15	Yes	BUY	1,149	100¢	$1,148	0xd5b6d1…
06-08 14:30:21	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x71a1ad…
06-07 23:20:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	222	100¢	$221	0xf35cb5…
06-07 23:20:21	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	3,750	100¢	$3,735	0x2642d6…
06-07 23:19:43	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x267443…
06-07 23:19:42	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcb26ed…
06-07 23:17:06	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0x846b30…
06-07 23:03:22	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,980	0x25a622…
06-07 22:59:55	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	8,705	99¢	$8,652	0x3cd124…
06-07 22:59:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x094168…
06-07 22:59:51	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,129	99¢	$1,122	0xdf6681…
06-07 22:55:25	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x27ac83…
06-05 12:22:28	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	3,500	100¢	$3,493	0xcf9ee2…
06-05 08:59:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	6,000	98¢	$5,874	0xae46ab…
06-05 01:34:34	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,301	100¢	$2,297	0x7ad3bb…
06-05 01:26:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3ab578…
06-05 01:19:12	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xc4ac24…
06-05 01:08:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x94b0c2…
06-05 01:02:01	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x09059c…
06-05 00:57:25	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,550	100¢	$2,545	0x44b713…
06-05 00:42:21	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xc5bed6…
06-05 00:27:37	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x475bbb…
06-05 00:24:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xaab1e1…
06-05 00:16:07	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x2cf728…
06-05 00:01:07	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x2f8916…
06-04 23:55:42	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x3a267e…
06-04 23:50:52	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xa08bd5…
06-04 23:16:57	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xfa4bef…
06-04 23:08:48	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x700774…
06-04 22:55:13	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc4668e…
06-04 22:53:12	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0xcb3f5a…
06-04 22:42:12	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,495	0x14ab89…
06-04 22:39:46	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x5a1667…
06-04 22:39:46	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x35a07e…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$20	0xf7432d…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xec7da9…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc4f0ec…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xbe3b49…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xbbd4ea…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xb8bbc0…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa48636…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x8870a8…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6a3e26…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5b3db2…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x49d115…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x131992…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x0d0c70…
06-04 22:39:45	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x06e14b…
06-04 22:39:43	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	9,224	100¢	$9,205	0xd178b1…
06-03 18:50:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	440	100¢	$439	0xda6318…
06-03 08:54:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,000	100¢	$5,982	0xe3aec6…
06-02 10:54:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x0cbb0b…
06-02 08:19:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x502a81…
06-02 08:05:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	99¢	$596	0xd8b654…
06-02 08:03:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8fece5…
06-02 08:03:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x3f017e…
06-02 08:02:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	66	94¢	$62	0x0157b1…
06-02 08:02:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x254d04…
06-02 08:01:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x66ea36…
06-02 08:00:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	427	94¢	$400	0x36075b…
06-02 08:00:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	59	94¢	$56	0x7cdc80…
06-02 07:52:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x3d56cf…
06-02 07:52:37	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x1abbeb…
06-02 07:51:09	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xd86802…
06-02 07:50:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x6d56fe…
06-02 07:50:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$936	0x64f0c8…
06-02 07:49:30	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$936	0x2c016c…
06-02 07:46:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	67	94¢	$63	0xcfc1e9…
06-02 07:46:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0xeffa4c…
06-02 07:45:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x2d2638…
06-02 05:55:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf56d85…
06-02 05:55:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	316	99¢	$314	0x14753f…
06-02 05:54:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0x621acc…
06-02 05:54:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13,661	99¢	$13,579	0xbf9ad1…
06-02 04:46:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30,000	100¢	$29,910	0x4d8f1a…
06-02 02:02:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22,008	100¢	$21,964	0x748037…
06-01 23:04:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,925	0x267309…
06-01 17:12:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x5829cb…
06-01 17:04:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20,000	0¢	$20	0x880e2d…
06-01 17:01:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20,000	0¢	$40	0xabbbe6…
06-01 17:00:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,008	100¢	$2,000	0xda93fa…
06-01 16:51:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	880	44¢	$385	0x79d1a8…
06-01 16:18:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	440	43¢	$187	0x4f26e8…
06-01 16:16:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	440	44¢	$192	0x29e8a0…
06-01 16:11:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	630	42¢	$268	0xa5892b…
06-01 15:37:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x286187…
06-01 15:31:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	48¢	$79	0x3aeefa…
06-01 15:31:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	48¢	$17	0x487778…
06-01 15:25:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,049	50¢	$519	0x79fc24…
06-01 13:43:53	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	SELL	303	94¢	$283	0x5ff83f…
06-01 13:02:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	800	36¢	$291	0x770504…
06-01 12:56:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	27¢	$24	0x9b1ab8…
06-01 12:56:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	161	28¢	$44	0x6b6cd4…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	156	$48.0M	56,349	06-10 00:11
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	136	$1.26M	20,389	06-10 00:05
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	134	$519.5K	41,968	06-01 05:26
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	130	$455.5K	1,627	06-08 20:17
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	121	$225.3K	18,701	03-28 10:31
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	117	$68.0K	23,862	04-16 23:59
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	116	$505.9K	48,216	06-09 16:59
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	114	$26.1K	5,352	06-09 08:49