Electric-Condominium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$42

Unrealized P&L

+$292

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

718

Trades

4,861

lifetime

Volume

$192.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$1.90K

18 positions

First seen

2026-03-18

last 10-26 16:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 180 days

Categories

Other

57% 37% -$507

Politics

31% 35% +$584

Tech

8% 48% +$866

Sports

3% 25% -$582

Crypto

1% 0% -$296

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+5,000	$837	16¢	$775	-$62	10-09 13:48
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	+3,000	$360	12¢	$375	+$15	10-15 18:09
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+923	-$81	21¢	$192	+$273	10-23 15:28
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-993	-$205	16¢	$-154	+$51	10-24 22:44
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	+652	$279	18¢	$121	-$158	10-25 20:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+200	$81	50¢	$99	+$18	10-15 17:56
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+2,080	$126	4¢	$76	-$50	10-22 15:55
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	-131	-$247	37¢	$-48	+$199	10-22 07:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+250	-$103	10¢	$24	+$127	10-26 16:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+246	$48	8¢	$18	-$29	10-25 21:29
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+1,200	$9	1¢	$9	+$0	10-04 22:04
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	-5	-$4	90¢	$-4	$0	07-24 16:00
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+308	$41	1¢	$4	-$37	10-16 08:24
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	+100	$17	2¢	$2	-$15	09-20 16:14
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+535	$1	0¢	$1	+$0	10-23 13:38
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	+100	$8	1¢	$1	-$7	09-30 18:37
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$32	0¢	$0	-$32	09-20 16:16
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+0	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-19 17:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	8	$7.6K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$113	07-28 16:08
another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	26	$5.1K	9,000	5,000	+4,000	No	-$1,549	08-30 23:21
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	34	$5.0K	4,531	3,791	+740	Yes	-$83	06-30 17:45
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	4	$4.3K	2,214	2,214	+0	open	—	06-25 10:28
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	27	$3.9K	3,390	3,390	+0	Yes	+$429	07-06 22:45
another critical cloudflare incident by september 30 2026 2	54	$3.7K	4,679	4,679	+0	No	-$145	09-30 16:37
No one announced as next James Bond?	12	$3.4K	2,490	2,490	+0	open	—	10-20 22:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	16	$2.8K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	09-23 14:53
will the grand theft auto vi ps5 launch price be at least 70 20260618224014045	21	$2.6K	1,413	1,413	+0	open	—	06-25 10:27
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?	19	$2.6K	1,511	1,511	+0	Yes	+$421	06-08 22:43
another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	31	$2.3K	12,983	2,016	+10,968	No	+$210	10-22 15:52
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	13	$2.3K	1,692	1,692	+0	Yes	+$779	10-02 22:19
nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	19	$2.0K	1,656	1,656	+0	open	—	08-16 20:50
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?	19	$1.9K	1,347	1,347	+0	Yes	+$51	07-24 16:54
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	12	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$10	06-16 20:41
will the grand theft auto vi ps5 launch price be at least 80 20260618224014046	15	$1.9K	1,134	1,134	+0	open	—	06-25 13:04
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	3	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$104	06-15 13:49
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	4	$1.8K	970	970	+0	Yes	+$102	06-17 17:22
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	9	$1.7K	1,612	1,612	+0	Yes	+$345	07-20 16:00
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	8	$1.7K	1,421	1,421	-0	No	+$604	08-14 08:34
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	22	$1.7K	4,383	3,883	+500	No	-$77	07-01 11:00
iran closes its airspace by june 8	56	$1.6K	13,274	13,274	+0	Yes	-$118	06-08 09:51
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	17	$1.6K	761	1,032	-271	Yes	+$179	04-29 10:20
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	19	$1.6K	918	918	+0	Yes	+$200	05-20 11:29
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	34	$1.4K	4,562	3,639	+923	open	—	10-23 15:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	9	$1.4K	1,700	1,200	+500	No	-$136	07-03 09:34
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	4	$1.4K	700	700	+0	Yes	+$22	10-06 09:35
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	16	$1.3K	1,844	1,975	-131	open	—	10-22 07:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	11	$1.2K	1,098	1,098	+0	Yes	+$13	07-29 13:46
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	11	$1.2K	745	745	+0	No	+$142	06-28 06:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:01:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	162	14¢	$23	0x61d3f5…
10-26 16:01:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	88	14¢	$12	0x4cc4dc…
10-25 21:29:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	196	15¢	$29	0x000754…
10-25 21:06:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	246	28¢	$69	0x2c38f7…
10-25 20:45:41	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,200	28¢	$335	0x93f3b1…
10-25 20:43:11	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	20¢	$60	0x07740a…
10-25 20:41:45	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	300	97¢	$290	0x9df41d…
10-25 16:31:08	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	23	28¢	$7	0x02311f…
10-25 16:17:33	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	977	29¢	$283	0xa705c1…
10-25 16:03:02	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$4	0x8a498f…
10-25 16:02:44	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xe99811…
10-25 16:02:32	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$5	0x37c5b1…
10-25 16:02:21	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	3¢	$8	0x9c0aaf…
10-25 16:00:56	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	146	6¢	$9	0xf1c2e7…
10-25 16:00:44	Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	10¢	$20	0x70ac65…
10-25 15:59:33	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	SELL	205	10¢	$20	0x1867b9…
10-25 15:59:23	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x6d1d75…
10-25 14:57:30	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0x465fff…
10-25 13:04:24	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?	Yes	SELL	19	29¢	$6	0x5b402c…
10-25 12:58:48	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x88d4c4…
10-25 10:13:03	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	384	0¢	$2	0x0ca85b…
10-25 07:46:45	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x5b1b7e…
10-25 07:30:03	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x5b80bd…
10-25 02:31:53	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x095af7…
10-25 02:02:59	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	30¢	$28	0xe13f53…
10-24 22:58:26	Heat vs. Hornets	Heat	BUY	500	59¢	$295	0x144b75…
10-24 22:52:03	Will any contestant beat Luke Littler?	Yes	SELL	100	66¢	$66	0x1119c6…
10-24 22:51:27	Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0xaccb1f…
10-24 22:51:11	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0xcea23c…
10-24 22:50:09	Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x0451f5…
10-24 22:49:57	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Yes	SELL	203	3¢	$6	0xf41aad…
10-24 22:48:44	Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xcf257e…
10-24 22:48:29	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$1	0xa85ca4…
10-24 22:48:11	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$3	0x0c7587…
10-24 22:47:53	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xd5d116…
10-24 22:46:23	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x4277d2…
10-24 22:46:08	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	3,748	1¢	$37	0x4e9f9f…
10-24 22:44:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	993	18¢	$179	0x0d0569…
10-24 22:37:33	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0x360982…
10-24 15:34:21	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	219	0¢	$0	0xceb4e6…
10-24 15:05:29	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xbce56b…
10-24 13:02:00	Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x57619d…
10-24 12:22:15	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	44¢	$40	0x4aa1d7…
10-24 10:37:17	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x55541c…
10-24 06:10:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$10	0x953670…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	0¢	$0	0xcac95d…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	0¢	$0	0xc2b204…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0x93dabb…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	0¢	$0	0x2b7caf…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$0	0x25e1f6…
10-23 20:49:09	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	0¢	$1	0x0df4c1…
10-23 20:17:48	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x4fda08…
10-23 16:28:29	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0xe9db3d…
10-23 15:28:30	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0xa34571…
10-23 15:28:30	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x38e630…
10-23 15:00:15	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x5e7c28…
10-23 14:53:30	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xfcd0fd…
10-23 14:49:32	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	189	21¢	$39	0xb38b28…
10-23 14:46:57	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0xdc6420…
10-23 14:23:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	5¢	$3	0xd22b8c…
10-23 13:38:57	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	535	0¢	$1	0x7679b3…
10-23 13:22:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x27cb3f…
10-23 11:54:42	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	1,289	5¢	$64	0xe122f3…
10-23 11:46:57	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	145	22¢	$32	0x7df62c…
10-23 11:36:53	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	170	21¢	$35	0x622b66…
10-23 10:11:51	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	133	21¢	$28	0x0342ec…
10-23 09:47:03	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x234cbb…
10-23 08:10:09	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x29e98a…
10-23 04:30:57	Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	311	1¢	$4	0x327b89…
10-23 04:28:02	Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xc35cfd…
10-23 04:27:33	Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	1¢	$3	0xb6d7c3…
10-23 04:27:33	Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	1¢	$3	0x849340…
10-23 04:27:32	Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	452	1¢	$6	0xcac404…
10-23 00:52:18	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x0e73b2…
10-22 23:38:03	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb478fe…
10-22 22:07:30	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xabbe01…
10-22 21:59:12	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x07a254…
10-22 21:59:11	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xda0aff…
10-22 21:59:11	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0x4e1272…
10-22 21:44:47	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x784ea7…
10-22 21:44:47	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x335403…
10-22 20:25:33	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xea1d5a…
10-22 20:25:32	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6de67b…
10-22 19:22:30	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0c57c4…
10-22 19:15:38	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	45	0¢	$0	0xaa1d5b…
10-22 19:15:38	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x155aec…
10-22 19:15:36	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x393e2f…
10-22 18:52:35	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	102	0¢	$0	0xa8b664…
10-22 18:52:32	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	0¢	$0	0xfb64fc…
10-22 18:52:32	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	0¢	$0	0xf82cb7…
10-22 18:52:32	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	0¢	$0	0x3ed23a…
10-22 18:52:32	Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	193	0¢	$0	0x195e52…
10-22 18:46:27	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xbdb800…
10-22 18:46:27	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x505083…
10-22 18:46:26	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xb1e7ef…
10-22 18:46:26	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x05ab4b…
10-22 18:44:26	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xcac3f9…
10-22 18:44:26	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xa69847…
10-22 18:37:35	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	0¢	$0	0xfda5f7…
10-22 18:37:35	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	235	0¢	$0	0x0e1973…