Vast-Fennel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

47.8%

Resolved

704

Trades

1,726

lifetime

Volume

$4.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 09-17 06:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

51% 46% -$25

Sports

30% 46% -$13

Politics

19% 49% -$3

Tech

1% 0% -$4

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+2	$2	96¢	$2	+$1	07-21 12:38
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	93¢	$2	+$0	07-14 20:20
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+7	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	07-21 12:38
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	+1	$1	21¢	$0	$0	07-09 09:18
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2	$0	7¢	$0	$0	07-30 10:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	36	$88	292	292	+0	Yes	+$11	06-16 10:43
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	21	$75	55	55	+0	Yes	-$2	06-08 13:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	23	$55	101	96	+5	Yes	+$2	06-14 17:30
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	14	$47	86	86	+0	Yes	+$11	06-20 11:23
starmer out by june 22 2026	13	$40	29	29	+0	Yes	+$3	06-21 21:57
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	13	$37	57	15	+42	Yes	+$25	07-20 12:11
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	18	$34	123	123	+0	No	-$1	06-25 09:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	14	$33	43	43	+0	No	$0	06-19 09:27
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	14	$33	86	86	+0	No	+$1	06-21 17:35
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic	4	$32	28	23	+5	Nuno Borges	+$14	05-27 16:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	17	$29	122	122	+0	No	-$2	06-25 09:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	11	$27	36	36	+0	No	+$0	06-27 08:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	6	$22	30	30	+0	Yes	$0	06-12 17:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$20	179	179	+0	No	$0	06-12 20:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$20	20	20	+0	No	-$1	06-22 15:01
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	8	$20	44	44	+0	No	-$1	06-30 06:46
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	5	$20	15	15	+0	Yes	+$2	06-12 14:29
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	5	$19	13	13	+0	Top Esports	+$7	05-31 13:08
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech	7	$18	25	5	+20	Jil Teichmann	-$8	05-27 18:04
iran closes its airspace by june 8	7	$16	15	15	+0	Yes	$0	06-07 20:32
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	7	$16	22	10	+12	Yes	+$6	06-12 15:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$15	17	17	+0	open	—	08-12 03:14
will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	3	$15	9	9	+0	No	+$3	06-30 06:47
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage	4	$15	9	9	+0	Xtreme Gaming	+$3	05-26 15:51
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$14	9	9	+0	Yes	+$0	06-21 02:37
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02?	2	$14	34	0	+34	No	-$14	05-02 05:12
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	4	$14	20	20	+0	Yes	+$6	06-17 07:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$14	13	13	+0	Yes	+$2	06-14 11:19
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	5	$14	21	18	+3	open	—	07-30 10:58
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien	4	$13	30	5	+25	Learner Tien	-$3	05-28 13:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 06:15:33	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x69654f…
08-12 03:14:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x5ba4b3…
07-30 11:43:42	Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x61b6a2…
07-30 11:12:38	Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xff1fdd…
07-30 10:58:45	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	14¢	$2	0xba2c11…
07-30 10:57:50	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xe4b139…
07-28 10:50:37	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x215fe4…
07-25 09:04:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x206816…
07-24 19:04:52	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x420f7d…
07-22 14:30:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x5ad761…
07-21 12:38:51	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x213e0f…
07-21 12:38:51	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x213e0f…
07-21 12:28:16	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x72dd2c…
07-20 12:11:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x0b0e12…
07-20 12:11:24	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0b0e12…
07-20 12:10:33	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x62b33e…
07-20 12:02:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2258bd…
07-20 11:39:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9e8d2f…
07-20 11:34:04	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x894355…
07-20 10:58:09	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x75ff56…
07-20 10:56:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xa7f411…
07-20 10:56:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x7ad6f2…
07-20 10:56:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x878ac9…
07-20 10:56:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x878ac9…
07-20 10:46:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd11437…
07-16 20:55:32	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x07afb3…
07-14 20:20:05	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xedd6b8…
07-13 19:44:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x63d891…
07-12 08:32:53	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x60f1a9…
07-12 03:45:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x161263…
07-10 08:08:25	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc39ae8…
07-09 23:22:05	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb5ae1f…
07-09 09:18:01	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0x39f4c1…
07-09 07:49:26	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x1b6a77…
07-09 06:41:58	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x223d42…
07-09 06:41:40	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x707ef2…
06-30 07:05:50	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xa4c0e4…
06-30 06:48:22	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x587680…
06-30 06:48:19	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd90746…
06-30 06:48:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x318074…
06-30 06:48:14	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x06f162…
06-30 06:48:10	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x33c081…
06-30 06:48:07	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x2af5b4…
06-30 06:48:04	Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xc56299…
06-30 06:47:59	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x026590…
06-30 06:47:55	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x022a1f…
06-30 06:47:50	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xe505f2…
06-30 06:47:49	Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0x1ddecd…
06-30 06:47:46	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xe77759…
06-30 06:47:44	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x6bc513…
06-30 06:47:43	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xbf75e5…
06-30 06:47:40	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x33bc7f…
06-30 06:47:38	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xaf64f0…
06-30 06:47:35	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	63¢	$5	0xc5226e…
06-30 06:47:32	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x952f6b…
06-30 06:47:31	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x699dbd…
06-30 06:47:26	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc1f8ee…
06-30 06:47:23	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x92e0d3…
06-30 06:47:22	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xda027a…
06-30 06:47:17	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xc58af8…
06-30 06:46:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	29	21¢	$6	0xc08290…
06-30 06:46:52	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x5f76ae…
06-28 19:18:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb9c3e2…
06-28 18:03:11	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xfca9c5…
06-28 17:55:29	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x85940c…
06-28 17:39:56	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x2a06a0…
06-28 15:23:35	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xfa7c03…
06-28 14:23:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x44c717…
06-28 06:33:28	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x539133…
06-28 04:50:58	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x31b5bf…
06-28 03:51:02	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xc25f72…
06-28 01:34:47	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xeedfe2…
06-27 12:35:19	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xaddb17…
06-27 10:42:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x5725f5…
06-27 09:32:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x24ff0d…
06-27 09:25:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xaf97ae…
06-27 08:20:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2b42cc…
06-27 08:06:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x514bce…
06-26 20:08:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x572b1d…
06-26 16:09:31	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x52e8d2…
06-26 13:39:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x8d3da1…
06-26 13:28:00	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xdd5c3d…
06-26 13:20:31	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xcc5dc1…
06-26 05:42:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd38dee…
06-26 04:47:25	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4f6577…
06-26 02:58:41	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0x7731b3…
06-26 02:58:40	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x704564…
06-26 02:51:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0xf6f634…
06-26 02:32:17	wti up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc2611a…
06-25 22:37:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2a328e…
06-25 21:04:56	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x363b7a…
06-25 20:29:01	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x953ee4…
06-25 19:41:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xdd9fc9…
06-25 17:42:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xc961c8…
06-25 09:03:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0xf7039c…
06-25 09:03:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x7f0d51…
06-25 09:03:16	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	18	3¢	$0	0x538f24…
06-24 16:49:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x1ebb16…
06-24 13:26:56	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0xcb2dd1…
06-24 07:54:44	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x56f454…