Best-Rivulet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

88.2%

Resolved

257

Trades

486

lifetime

Volume

$5.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$377

17 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 11-06 10:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Other

58% 93% +$25

Politics

37% 79% -$22

Tech

3% 100% +$12

Crypto

2% 66% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+100	$93	98¢	$98	+$5	10-22 07:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+40	$32	100¢	$40	+$8	10-21 07:26
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+40	$39	98¢	$39	+$1	08-13 19:32
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+40	$37	97¢	$39	+$1	07-20 21:28
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+37	$30	97¢	$36	+$6	09-28 07:14
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	+26	$20	94¢	$25	+$5	10-13 07:16
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$0	10-27 13:19
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$1	10-20 13:30
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+20	$17	90¢	$18	+$2	09-12 21:40
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$1	09-11 09:12
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+40	$11	22¢	$9	-$2	11-06 10:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+10	$8	88¢	$9	+$1	08-18 03:08
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	+10	$8	84¢	$8	$0	11-06 13:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+5	$4	58¢	$3	-$2	11-03 07:57
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+20	$5	12¢	$2	-$2	09-30 06:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+15	$12	16¢	$2	-$9	09-23 06:36
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$1	98¢	$0	+$1	11-04 20:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	3	$236	240	0	+240	No	+$4	09-26 18:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	7	$212	180	40	+140	No	+$5	05-15 20:15
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$150	151	40	+111	Yes	-$39	04-09 09:46
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$149	150	0	+150	Yes	+$1	04-06 18:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$119	120	0	+120	No	+$1	05-29 10:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	5	$109	110	0	+110	No	+$1	06-07 05:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$106	80	30	+50	No	+$1	05-12 12:25
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 9?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-09 16:51
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	2	$100	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 14:26
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	1	$99	100	0	+100	No	+$1	06-09 12:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$98	100	0	+100	No	+$2	05-11 16:13
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	4	$95	50	50	+0	No	-$3	05-10 06:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$94	62	62	+0	No	+$0	05-07 20:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$93	100	0	+100	open	—	10-22 07:19
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	3	$92	98	0	+98	No	+$6	06-08 06:22
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	3	$91	50	50	+0	No	-$1	05-18 09:33
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?	4	$86	90	0	+90	No	+$4	04-15 13:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	2	$79	80	0	+80	No	+$1	10-11 12:10
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$79	80	0	+80	No	+$1	04-09 12:01
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	2	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$1	05-05 21:04
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	4	$78	80	0	+80	No	+$2	06-15 18:24
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	4	$76	40	40	+0	open	—	11-04 20:32
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	2	$70	40	40	+0	No	-$5	05-07 06:27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12?	3	$70	70	0	+70	No	+$0	05-12 15:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	7	$67	70	0	+70	No	+$3	05-22 20:25
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on May 13?	2	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	05-13 12:01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	05-27 16:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$57	30	30	+0	No	+$1	05-11 12:18
will kuwait send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	6	$56	30	30	+0	No	+$3	06-20 08:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-25 11:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 13:41:24	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xa91c52…
11-06 10:47:57	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x3e528e…
11-04 20:32:43	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xf7eda4…
11-03 07:57:25	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x2bba64…
11-02 21:30:24	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x347ca7…
11-02 21:21:09	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x8f7829…
11-02 12:08:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa088d2…
11-01 19:11:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xdee2a9…
10-29 10:37:01	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x67b879…
10-28 13:59:46	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xb98e71…
10-27 14:06:24	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xa4b37e…
10-27 13:19:23	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x64ceb7…
10-22 07:19:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf4a3df…
10-21 07:26:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1b7a7b…
10-20 13:30:39	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xf56808…
10-20 13:30:38	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x0e631e…
10-20 07:50:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x1569c6…
10-16 11:57:24	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xb72ba7…
10-16 10:15:30	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x69e59f…
10-16 05:32:40	another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x6f4460…
10-15 16:58:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x917469…
10-15 08:54:38	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 18	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xd601ac…
10-15 07:30:59	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 28	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x73c408…
10-15 07:07:47	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x41caae…
10-15 07:00:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xe94485…
10-14 10:05:25	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x12dcea…
10-13 07:16:08	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x4c6fc9…
10-11 12:10:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x7a0614…
10-10 19:03:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x29ae8c…
10-09 09:47:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x0b3fe2…
10-09 09:46:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x9bc202…
09-30 06:32:17	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xdbbdd7…
09-28 07:14:35	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x9a3612…
09-26 18:34:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd26130…
09-24 08:57:11	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xbf1e85…
09-24 08:29:27	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xa4267f…
09-23 06:36:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x3ff672…
09-23 06:34:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x5d93fc…
09-23 06:24:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0d29c6…
09-21 14:07:15	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xc6acad…
09-21 11:07:29	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x0e930f…
09-21 11:00:05	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xa0413c…
09-16 14:45:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x387253…
09-15 13:47:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x989a10…
09-12 21:40:21	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x417201…
09-11 09:12:43	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x376c4c…
09-11 08:07:37	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0x15b5b2…
08-21 11:00:27	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x528673…
08-18 11:43:45	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x6ccfd6…
08-18 08:30:03	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x75aa47…
08-18 03:08:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xf7ea8c…
08-13 19:32:18	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$39	0xdec0d3…
08-02 15:15:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x8d51ae…
07-30 15:04:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x8187dd…
07-21 11:25:36	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x2af9f9…
07-21 10:45:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x660720…
07-21 10:45:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xa3cf90…
07-20 21:28:13	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xbffc49…
07-20 10:45:07	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0xa9caed…
07-20 10:31:52	Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd73be8…
07-07 11:05:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x42ab37…
06-22 08:35:22	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x3ebc89…
06-22 08:28:44	starmer out by june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4f2777…
06-20 08:43:49	will kuwait send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	12	98¢	$11	0x88182c…
06-16 21:10:04	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x11abb5…
06-15 18:24:07	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc25901…
06-15 18:00:07	will kuwait send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x127b40…
06-15 10:01:43	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x41ad11…
06-14 12:28:06	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0x76be97…
06-14 11:06:37	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x361639…
06-14 11:04:40	Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5551f9…
06-14 09:56:51	will japan send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x612c77…
06-13 07:25:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x32059c…
06-11 12:29:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x27f901…
06-09 12:26:43	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x672c40…
06-08 06:40:57	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x465c2b…
06-08 06:36:46	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x142f3f…
06-08 06:22:57	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x346b2b…
06-07 08:59:58	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xccf4d7…
06-07 05:49:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x38106b…
06-04 09:01:57	will kuwait send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x2e7c43…
06-03 20:47:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xfc3daf…
06-03 15:37:09	Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0xe7f4cd…
06-03 13:52:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	49¢	$11	0x15615c…
06-03 13:52:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x86a8ba…
06-03 13:24:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xabf8f1…
06-03 11:38:04	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x80fa7e…
06-02 14:22:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9db7c0…
06-02 14:22:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9c23a1…
06-02 14:22:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x323eca…
06-01 16:18:02	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x0293da…
06-01 14:30:26	Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x81a107…
06-01 13:22:53	Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x8b3e15…
06-01 08:11:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xabdebb…
05-30 21:25:42	Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1d5c74…
05-30 17:59:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x42ca0a…
05-30 09:28:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x25464b…
05-30 06:12:44	Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe7a570…
05-29 10:15:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x1bf520…
05-28 14:17:55	Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xe6897d…