Loving-Hate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.7%

Resolved

Trades

919

lifetime

Volume

$2.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 08-09 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

46% 75% +$2

Politics

28% 33% $-25

Tech

17% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?	3	$45	46	0	+46	open	—	04-08 02:51
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	5	$33	42	7	+35	open	—	04-21 05:06
will artemis ii launch by march 31	4	$31	31	1	+30	open	—	03-23 02:06
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	3	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	04-08 02:51
will claude go down 7 8 times in march	3	$29	37	7	+30	open	—	03-23 02:09
will claude go down 11 times in march	6	$26	46	0	+46	open	—	03-25 20:56
bitcoin above 64k on february 23	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	02-23 03:45
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$25	26	0	+26	open	—	02-15 11:13
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?	2	$22	23	0	+23	open	—	03-26 19:05
will claude go down 5 6 times in march	3	$21	25	0	+25	open	—	03-20 09:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$21	25	0	+25	open	—	04-26 07:46
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$21	24	0	+24	open	—	03-19 02:13
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	04-21 04:52
will germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	02-12 07:19
Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?	3	$17	18	0	+18	open	—	03-12 19:03
nothing ever happens crypto edition 319	3	$16	38	7	+31	open	—	03-23 00:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$16	23	0	+23	open	—	04-19 21:08
another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	6	$16	21	0	+21	open	—	04-21 04:58
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	3	$16	17	0	+17	open	—	03-23 03:11
us bank failure by january 31	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	01-25 06:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	06-09 23:46
will ecdsafail get at least 50 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	3	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	06-30 07:40
will the total number of tsa passengers for january 24 be less than 2100000	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	01-25 06:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	1	$15	0	21	-21	open	—	06-17 07:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$15	15	5	+11	open	—	07-13 18:35
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	3	$14	16	0	+16	open	—	03-28 07:55
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?	2	$13	15	0	+15	No	+$2	03-12 19:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	3	$13	17	0	+17	Yes	$-13	05-02 05:43
military action against iran ends by april 15 2026 937	3	$13	16	0	+16	open	—	04-08 00:08
bitcoin above 72k on march 14	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	03-14 06:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 18:14:06	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc039e0…
08-09 18:13:58	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x8f36c2…
08-09 18:12:49	will trump say mit or massachusetts institute of technology in august 20260728181450076	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa8b68c…
08-09 18:12:31	will trump say gaza in august 20260728181450066	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x7022d7…
08-09 18:12:04	will trump speak to mark carney in august 20260731154203527	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x75ac91…
08-09 18:09:51	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x865c44…
08-09 18:09:22	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc031b4…
08-09 18:09:12	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4f55d4…
08-09 18:06:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x2d6615…
08-09 18:06:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbd90db…
08-09 18:06:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x685ef1…
08-09 18:05:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x611c35…
08-09 18:05:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x6df2c4…
08-09 18:05:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xfdebc3…
08-09 18:05:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6d336d…
08-04 02:30:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xec8e68…
08-04 02:27:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x50a0c7…
08-04 02:27:35	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x5139f1…
08-04 02:25:02	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0xe1bb30…
08-01 23:17:45	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x97c708…
08-01 06:53:56	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xb52186…
07-24 07:17:09	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x30d4fb…
07-24 07:16:54	total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026 20260720155238427	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xdd7a1a…
07-24 07:16:46	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8caeab…
07-24 07:14:55	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x35a204…
07-24 07:14:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x88debe…
07-24 07:11:39	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xf4cfec…
07-24 07:10:54	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xc20f06…
07-24 07:08:39	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 75 or higher 20260723190836290	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x3ea73a…
07-24 07:08:33	will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 55 or higher 20260723190836286	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x31a558…
07-24 07:07:45	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x114f8a…
07-24 07:07:39	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x769992…
07-24 07:06:12	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x8d6aee…
07-24 07:04:12	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xe7664d…
07-13 22:16:14	will trump say mitch or mcconnell this week 20260710153927792	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xed475b…
07-13 18:35:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1847e3…
07-13 18:35:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xade3e1…
07-13 18:33:41	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6ee74a…
07-13 18:29:07	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf989b8…
07-12 20:52:16	another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xf351a5…
07-12 20:52:07	another critical cloudflare incident by july 31 2026 12	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xee3c95…
07-12 20:50:28	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb63f61…
07-12 20:42:46	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9f9928…
07-12 20:42:34	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xdd4433…
07-12 20:42:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x2aba1a…
07-12 20:37:49	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdee467…
07-12 20:36:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x6b8dfc…
07-12 20:35:49	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xb67dab…
07-12 20:35:44	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x653f78…
07-12 20:35:08	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952739	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x31a38a…
07-12 20:35:04	will italy send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952744	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc7a188…
07-12 20:34:44	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x70d645…
07-07 04:14:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x79234b…
07-07 04:12:35	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8fe72b…
07-07 04:12:20	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x464661…
07-07 04:11:46	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x287855…
07-07 04:11:40	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe77962…
07-07 04:11:26	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x984c88…
07-07 04:11:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xb805f5…
07-07 04:09:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x19881a…
07-07 04:09:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x4aafdc…
07-07 04:09:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xf7d9f0…
07-07 04:08:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xcab483…
07-02 01:34:22	will the next claude opus model be released by august 31 2026 20260701204710233	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x93beb7…
07-02 01:34:14	will the next claude opus model be released by october 31 2026 20260701204710234	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x689355…
07-02 01:30:20	Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x9c9c35…
07-02 01:26:38	Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc66573…
07-02 01:19:19	Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5cff76…
07-02 01:19:07	Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x28a0fb…
07-02 01:19:01	Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xd569e6…
07-02 01:18:16	Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdc2ae4…
07-02 01:18:08	Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x15b62a…
07-02 01:16:19	us treasury transactions on blockchain by december 31 20260629152656715	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x091fb4…
07-02 01:15:56	Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x011225…
06-30 07:40:41	will ecdsafail get at least 50 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa7050a…
06-27 20:20:37	Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x413f2e…
06-27 20:20:29	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcda5c4…
06-27 20:19:16	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xc4b48f…
06-27 20:17:14	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in july 20260626154217441	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x7401d5…
06-27 20:17:05	will trump speak to xi jinping in july 20260626154217426	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xed0774…
06-27 20:16:58	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x6cf973…
06-27 20:16:08	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xfea366…
06-27 20:13:19	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x30383e…
06-27 20:11:43	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260625215135372	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x0e270d…
06-27 20:11:29	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xe63fae…
06-27 20:11:16	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8a4218…
06-27 20:09:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x516376…
06-27 20:09:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xeecf5a…
06-27 20:09:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x465fb5…
06-27 20:06:05	will ecdsafail get at least 50 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x33f929…
06-27 19:11:19	will ecdsafail get at least 50 ahead of googles classified circuit by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x625241…
06-27 19:10:53	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd77fb8…
06-27 19:08:47	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x36d469…
06-27 19:08:41	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x68e2a7…
06-27 19:08:38	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 29 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd03f1d…
06-27 17:19:13	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa409da…
06-27 17:11:38	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x7b5c4b…
06-27 17:11:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xc93bc2…
06-27 17:11:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x26c08c…
06-27 17:11:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x30b5ab…