Realized P&L
-$215
Unrealized P&L
+$13
Hit rate
51.2%
Resolved
37
Trades
13,330
lifetime
Volume
$402.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$30
Open exposure
$8.26K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
54%
68%
$-196
Other
40%
85%
$-19
Crypto
4%
100%
+$0
Tech
1%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk
• peak 635 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +1,000 | $880 | 88¢ | $875 | $-5 | 06-07 03:23 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +1,000 | $850 | 84¢ | $845 | $-5 | 06-06 17:24 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | -993 | $-834 | 82¢ | $-819 | +$15 | 06-07 03:58 | |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | Yes | +1,047 | $764 | 73¢ | $764 | $-0 | 06-06 19:52 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | -772 | $-764 | 98¢ | $-761 | +$3 | 06-09 00:35 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +1,000 | $670 | 68¢ | $675 | +$5 | 06-09 00:19 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +980 | $610 | 62¢ | $603 | $-7 | 06-09 01:35 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +600 | $516 | 86¢ | $519 | +$3 | 06-05 04:00 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | -437 | $-431 | 99¢ | $-434 | $-3 | 05-28 01:28 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | -629 | $-383 | 60¢ | $-380 | +$3 | 06-01 13:08 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -454 | $-341 | 68¢ | $-311 | +$30 | 06-02 03:33 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | -150 | $-133 | 90¢ | $-134 | $-2 | 06-02 21:45 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | -124 | $-115 | 94¢ | $-116 | $-1 | 06-02 21:48 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | -91 | $-90 | 99¢ | $-90 | $-0 | 06-02 21:36 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | -98 | $-89 | 90¢ | $-89 | +$0 | 06-02 21:48 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | +663 | $87 | 12¢ | $83 | $-4 | 06-10 01:43 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | -80 | $-78 | 98¢ | $-78 | $-1 | 06-02 21:37 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -103 | $-74 | 72¢ | $-74 | +$1 | 06-02 21:45 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | -73 | $-72 | 99¢ | $-73 | $-1 | 05-28 01:35 | |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | -70 | $-67 | 97¢ | $-68 | $-0 | 06-02 21:45 | |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | -65 | $-64 | 99¢ | $-64 | $-0 | 05-28 01:28 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | -64 | $-63 | 99¢ | $-63 | $-0 | 06-02 21:37 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | -60 | $-57 | 95¢ | $-57 | $-0 | 06-02 21:44 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | -59 | $-50 | 90¢ | $-53 | $-3 | 06-02 21:44 | |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | -51 | $-50 | 98¢ | $-50 | $-0 | 06-02 21:37 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | -50 | $-42 | 86¢ | $-43 | $-1 | 06-02 21:44 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | -41 | $-38 | 99¢ | $-40 | $-3 | 06-08 22:19 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -37 | $-34 | 96¢ | $-35 | $-1 | 06-02 21:44 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | -50 | $-24 | 64¢ | $-32 | $-8 | 06-02 21:44 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | -34 | $-31 | 94¢ | $-32 | $-1 | 06-02 21:44 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 103 | $15.3K | 8,578 | 8,578 | +0 | open | — | 03-01 21:25 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 105 | $14.9K | 8,013 | 7,197 | +816 | open | — | 04-01 04:52 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 29 | $12.0K | 7,898 | 4,229 | +3,669 | open | — | 01-03 07:47 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 73 | $11.3K | 8,630 | 2,951 | +5,679 | open | — | 03-04 19:01 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 129 | $10.5K | 9,929 | 3,016 | +6,913 | open | — | 04-08 20:39 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 126 | $10.2K | 8,966 | 1,678 | +7,288 | open | — | 04-09 11:57 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 65 | $10.0K | 7,405 | 2,730 | +4,675 | open | — | 03-18 05:30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 134 | $8.6K | 5,016 | 3,943 | +1,072 | open | — | 04-26 15:08 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 120 | $7.8K | 5,289 | 3,457 | +1,832 | open | — | 03-31 01:31 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 173 | $7.5K | 5,294 | 5,288 | +6 | open | — | 03-12 13:06 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 79 | $7.3K | 4,574 | 3,781 | +793 | open | — | 01-31 19:14 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 105 | $6.4K | 4,726 | 2,654 | +2,072 | open | — | 03-04 16:56 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 143 | $5.5K | 6,193 | 5,009 | +1,184 | open | — | 04-22 09:44 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 102 | $5.4K | 6,142 | 6,084 | +58 | open | — | 03-01 13:59 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 135 | $4.7K | 3,853 | 1,666 | +2,187 | open | — | 04-01 21:15 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 158 | $4.4K | 4,151 | 3,585 | +566 | open | — | 04-21 18:38 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 127 | $4.3K | 3,104 | 1,359 | +1,745 | open | — | 04-27 01:11 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 40 | $4.2K | 2,864 | 1,548 | +1,316 | open | — | 01-24 12:27 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 43 | $4.1K | 3,797 | 1,641 | +2,156 | open | — | 02-01 12:23 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 5 | $3.9K | 3,979 | 0 | +3,979 | open | — | 06-03 15:46 |
| microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | 15 | $3.5K | 1,562 | 1,951 | -389 | open | — | 01-01 21:52 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 81 | $3.5K | 2,190 | 1,397 | +793 | open | — | 04-26 14:19 |
| nicols maduro released from custody by january 9 2026 | 21 | $3.4K | 1,121 | 2,326 | -1,205 | open | — | 01-09 08:42 |
| will trump say waste this week march 1 | 29 | $3.0K | 1,958 | 1,023 | +935 | open | — | 03-05 00:37 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 36 | $2.9K | 1,748 | 1,227 | +521 | open | — | 01-31 11:27 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 64 | $2.9K | 1,813 | 1,117 | +696 | open | — | 04-25 20:35 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 10 | $2.7K | 1,000 | 1,772 | -772 | open | — | 06-09 00:35 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 60 | $2.7K | 1,616 | 1,191 | +425 | open | — | 03-26 12:12 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 121 | $2.7K | 1,956 | 1,334 | +622 | No | +$4 | 04-24 13:42 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 99 | $2.5K | 2,204 | 1,851 | +353 | Yes | $-136 | 05-08 18:57 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 865 | $125.4M | 192,480 | 06-10 02:50 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 833 | $6.27M | 113,300 | 06-10 02:36 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 807 | $932.8K | 8,211 | 06-09 03:33 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 757 | $2.44M | 189,694 | 06-01 05:19 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 744 | $130.7K | 27,644 | 06-10 02:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 657 | $973.0K | 90,611 | 04-07 21:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 638 | $249.0K | 92,841 | 04-26 14:40 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | 619 | $391.2K | 35,323 | 06-08 08:06 |