Realized P&L
-$215
Unrealized P&L
+$646
Hit rate
51.2%
Resolved
37
Trades
14,817
lifetime
Volume
$631.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$43
Open exposure
$7.54K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 11:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
53% 68% $-196
Other
43% 85% $-19
Crypto
3% 100% +$0
Sports
1%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 233 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +2,700 $491 46¢ $1.2K +$737 07-01 00:24
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,376 $971 88¢ $1.2K +$239 07-03 19:22
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,535 $1,001 78¢ $1.2K +$205 07-15 00:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -993 $-810 74¢ $-730 +$80 07-13 18:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No -1,020 $-325 66¢ $-678 $-353 07-02 23:00
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -629 $-383 66¢ $-418 $-35 06-01 13:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No -454 $-341 84¢ $-384 $-43 06-02 03:33
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -405 $-359 94¢ $-383 $-24 06-10 22:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -157 $-120 90¢ $-141 $-21 07-21 11:21
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -150 $-133 94¢ $-140 $-8 06-02 21:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -125 $-15 99¢ $-124 $-108 07-13 16:14
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -124 $-115 96¢ $-118 $-3 06-02 21:48
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -98 $-89 94¢ $-93 $-3 06-02 21:48
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -94 $-69 86¢ $-80 $-11 06-30 02:15
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -103 $-74 76¢ $-78 $-4 06-02 21:45
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +1,000 $80 $75 $-5 07-13 15:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -60 $-57 96¢ $-58 $-1 06-02 21:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -59 $-50 90¢ $-53 $-3 06-02 21:44
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -50 $-42 92¢ $-46 $-4 06-02 21:44
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +100 $37 40¢ $40 +$3 07-13 00:12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -37 $-34 96¢ $-35 $-1 06-02 21:44
Trump out as President before 2027? No -35 $-31 92¢ $-32 $-1 06-02 21:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -36 $-22 86¢ $-31 $-9 06-02 21:44
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -31 $-29 96¢ $-30 $-1 06-02 21:44
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No -29 $-19 84¢ $-25 $-5 06-02 21:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -28 $-22 88¢ $-24 $-2 06-02 21:44
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No -45 $-53 50¢ $-22 +$31 06-27 20:09
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -29 $-20 71¢ $-20 $-0 06-02 21:43
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes -39 $-19 50¢ $-19 $-1 06-02 21:42
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No -19 $-17 97¢ $-19 $-2 06-02 21:42