Watery-Whale — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,144

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-02 04:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

48% 67% $-1

Other

24% 43% $-3

Sports

20% 0% $-1

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	66	$610	327	327	+0	open	—	03-16 17:31
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	48	$571	309	309	+0	open	—	03-29 11:33
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	54	$477	299	289	+10	open	—	03-13 05:45
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	51	$407	268	268	+0	open	—	03-16 21:54
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	29	$290	160	160	+0	open	—	03-10 12:46
will the us invade iran by march 31	31	$270	155	155	+0	open	—	03-30 10:10
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	40	$268	181	181	+0	open	—	03-19 15:00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	32	$252	136	136	+0	open	—	04-17 10:31
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	26	$224	120	120	+0	open	—	04-11 11:52
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	19	$216	125	115	+10	open	—	04-09 14:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	30	$199	205	155	+50	Yes	$-1	05-09 05:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	30	$191	131	131	+0	open	—	04-12 04:24
will france strike iran by march 31	16	$177	105	105	+0	open	—	03-04 06:51
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	29	$174	210	195	+15	open	—	03-03 16:36
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	30	$152	133	133	+0	open	—	04-12 14:39
Iran leadership change by April 30?	18	$138	121	106	+15	open	—	03-17 14:01
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	14	$121	75	75	+0	open	—	03-23 17:50
netanyahu out by march 31 854	12	$116	61	61	+0	open	—	03-15 14:34
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	12	$114	75	75	+0	open	—	03-03 12:09
will qatar strike iran by march 31	31	$108	183	183	+0	open	—	03-04 21:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	14	$104	70	70	+0	open	—	04-15 19:11
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	22	$102	128	128	+0	open	—	03-04 12:28
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	16	$92	60	60	+0	open	—	04-03 06:15
will iran strike israel on march 10	6	$88	45	45	+0	open	—	03-14 02:50
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	10	$88	75	75	+0	open	—	03-08 07:23
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	10	$83	50	50	+0	open	—	03-22 04:12
nba sac was 2026 02 01	23	$79	181	0	+181	open	—	02-02 01:17
nba hou mia 2026 02 28	13	$74	182	0	+182	open	—	02-28 20:49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	10	$71	50	50	+0	open	—	04-12 04:06
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	22	$69	110	110	+0	open	—	03-29 13:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 04:07:47	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x16b399…
07-02 04:04:31	will abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremonywill abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204723	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xd0f45f…
07-02 04:02:14	Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0x635e0a…
07-02 04:00:29	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x0f49a4…
07-02 03:56:16	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x81d4c1…
07-02 03:55:46	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0x3eca15…
07-02 03:54:44	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2eed95…
07-02 03:53:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	40	13¢	$5	0x585661…
07-02 03:50:16	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	28	25¢	$7	0xf3812c…
07-01 10:14:04	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe9fdf2…
07-01 10:14:01	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f63a2…
07-01 10:13:59	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xf353ee…
07-01 10:13:59	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xa7a573…
07-01 10:13:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0x994435…
07-01 10:13:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x387efe…
07-01 10:13:53	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xbf0124…
07-01 10:13:41	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x87ea1e…
07-01 10:13:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x4d3f49…
07-01 10:13:38	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x1bd585…
07-01 10:13:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	SELL	8	84¢	$6	0xa95905…
07-01 10:13:34	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xd1eb72…
07-01 10:13:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x75d0cf…
07-01 10:13:29	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xb218e5…
07-01 10:13:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xf093cf…
07-01 10:13:26	will declan rice score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	12	51¢	$6	0xb3a17e…
07-01 10:13:16	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	43	8¢	$3	0xb0cd6f…
06-28 02:12:37	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xa011a5…
06-25 07:15:59	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc017d3…
06-25 04:40:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x1f7ded…
06-25 03:31:22	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xcac188…
06-24 20:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xde41df…
06-24 18:14:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x162a58…
06-24 18:14:22	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd51e73…
06-24 17:41:20	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0x584ae0…
06-24 16:07:10	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x17e0ba…
06-21 20:13:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x5ccd9f…
06-21 10:11:28	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x2d1b28…
06-21 03:01:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	37¢	$2	0x18e7d9…
06-20 22:46:20	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x7ac5f4…
06-20 20:00:52	will abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremonywill abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204723	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x31d0b9…
06-20 14:19:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x53c7a3…
06-20 13:57:37	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 first half team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x534a56…
06-20 13:50:35	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x63f88c…
06-20 13:46:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x65b2e4…
06-20 13:35:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0x150ab1…
06-20 13:24:22	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x8c0f8d…
06-20 12:41:07	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8b2ef3…
06-20 06:50:44	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xaa47a1…
06-20 05:09:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x551159…
06-19 21:56:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x4fc649…
06-19 19:56:47	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xb60e89…
06-19 19:23:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xab70e1…
06-19 12:33:46	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x809367…
06-19 06:37:40	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0a92ff…
06-19 03:40:23	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xa3d1d8…
06-18 17:27:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x18bebe…
06-18 17:02:41	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x8aadf0…
06-18 16:18:28	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x9258cd…
06-18 15:21:08	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x18522f…
06-18 14:58:56	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x7b78cd…
06-18 14:37:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x470bb7…
06-18 13:01:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0x5e4ee4…
06-18 12:48:26	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x59351e…
06-18 01:18:35	cs2 aur1 bb3 2026 06 18	BetBoom Team	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xcd965f…
06-17 22:10:05	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	2	26¢	$0	0xba4e8c…
06-17 21:47:53	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x42de9e…
06-17 20:18:29	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0xc5c17b…
06-17 18:59:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x35d8df…
06-17 18:56:19	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xe858fc…
06-17 18:44:13	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x4d086e…
06-17 18:21:47	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xd3f53e…
06-17 18:09:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xa63a82…
06-17 18:09:31	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xe7a56e…
06-17 17:46:16	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0xf1cf9b…
06-17 17:13:22	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x17167a…
06-17 17:12:17	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	BUY	25	13¢	$3	0x0a9ba4…
06-17 17:12:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x7ac8df…
06-17 17:11:58	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xe1557a…
06-17 17:11:55	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	Under	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x1bd7d1…
06-17 16:56:29	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x77380b…
06-17 16:26:40	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2e7b4c…
06-17 15:49:01	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xcff132…
06-17 15:25:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x0f84f5…
06-17 14:42:59	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xaeb482…
06-17 14:38:46	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x2eae13…
06-17 14:25:47	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2928ea…
06-17 13:50:55	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa86b02…
06-17 13:39:16	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9b41f5…
06-17 13:39:14	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8e2b05…
06-17 13:04:29	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x9cb481…
06-17 13:04:26	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xbd7598…
06-17 10:02:10	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x9b9e81…
06-17 09:51:14	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x2e8a3f…
06-17 09:23:07	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x70a928…
06-17 08:41:55	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x30e666…
06-17 08:30:44	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	Yes	SELL	15	77¢	$12	0x6d94f8…
06-17 06:09:20	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x9e4b99…
06-17 05:13:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x0dfcef…
06-17 05:03:38	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$3	0x878054…
06-17 05:02:16	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x2598a3…