Optimistic-Disposal — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

46.1%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

4,480 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$35.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$6.89K

20 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 09-17 19:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

99% 35% -$402

Crypto

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+988	$848	99¢	$977	+$128	08-07 06:57
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	+987	$883	98¢	$967	+$84	08-01 11:24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+926	$758	97¢	$901	+$143	08-07 14:05
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+842	$593	94¢	$787	+$194	08-18 22:26
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+772	$743	100¢	$770	+$28	08-07 06:53
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+710	$436	86¢	$607	+$171	08-09 13:23
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	No	+627	$477	92¢	$574	+$97	08-07 09:00
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	+400	$340	94¢	$376	+$37	07-25 15:42
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+375	$329	96¢	$359	+$30	07-22 15:15
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	+264	$244	99¢	$261	+$17	08-14 05:39
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	No	+710	$276	15¢	$103	-$173	08-07 08:00
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	+842	$229	6¢	$54	-$175	08-15 19:41
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+627	$155	8¢	$53	-$101	08-06 07:58
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+926	$182	3¢	$25	-$158	08-04 14:45
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	+400	$60	6¢	$24	-$36	08-09 21:37
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	+987	$93	2¢	$20	-$73	08-07 06:19
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	+375	$45	4¢	$16	-$30	09-09 22:13
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+988	$141	1¢	$11	-$130	07-25 06:17
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Yes	+264	$19	1¢	$4	-$15	08-05 18:12
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+772	$28	0¢	$2	-$26	08-07 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Fed rate hike in 2026?	305	$3.1K	6,074	0	+6,074	Yes	-$64	08-07 16:30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	439	$3.0K	6,172	0	+6,172	No	-$73	06-16 16:15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	380	$2.9K	6,031	0	+6,031	Yes	-$74	06-12 18:29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	383	$2.7K	5,318	0	+5,318	Yes	-$31	06-14 22:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	231	$1.8K	3,631	0	+3,631	No	+$13	06-16 15:27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	209	$1.6K	3,099	108	+2,990	No	-$32	06-16 19:45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	235	$1.5K	3,145	0	+3,145	No	+$9	06-16 18:09
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	155	$1.3K	2,548	0	+2,548	Yes	-$9	06-16 16:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	135	$1.2K	2,323	0	+2,323	No	-$13	08-07 18:59
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	137	$1.1K	2,250	0	+2,250	No	+$6	08-07 10:05
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	126	$990	1,976	0	+1,976	open	—	08-07 06:57
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	107	$976	1,975	0	+1,975	open	—	08-07 06:19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	102	$966	1,927	0	+1,927	No	-$2	06-16 17:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	120	$962	1,840	182	+1,657	Yes	-$13	09-10 12:25
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	121	$945	2,054	0	+2,054	Yes	-$80	09-08 08:06
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	102	$943	1,827	0	+1,827	Yes	-$30	06-16 16:24
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	93	$941	1,852	0	+1,852	open	—	08-07 14:05
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	95	$884	1,803	0	+1,803	open	—	08-09 23:34
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	96	$822	1,683	0	+1,683	open	—	08-18 22:26
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	94	$770	1,545	0	+1,545	open	—	08-07 14:04
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	81	$721	1,467	0	+1,467	open	—	08-07 14:31
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	126	$712	1,421	0	+1,421	open	—	08-09 13:23
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	68	$637	1,284	0	+1,284	Yes	+$5	08-23 06:11
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	102	$632	1,255	0	+1,255	open	—	08-07 09:00
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	64	$560	1,143	0	+1,143	open	—	08-12 18:31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	53	$480	960	0	+960	No	+$0	08-10 21:21
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	67	$429	915	114	+801	open	—	08-09 21:37
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	68	$394	906	156	+750	open	—	09-09 22:13
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	34	$371	719	0	+719	No	-$12	06-16 18:42
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	25	$263	529	0	+529	open	—	08-14 05:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 19:31:57	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	SELL	132	2¢	$3	0x61c606…
09-10 12:25:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0x5836d3…
09-10 12:23:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x0477a7…
09-10 12:21:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	162	33¢	$53	0xb430d5…
09-09 22:13:36	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	156	6¢	$9	0x8de826…
09-09 17:13:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	116	1¢	$1	0xa47b84…
09-08 08:06:46	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7814b0…
09-01 23:44:00	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xe08806…
09-01 17:29:39	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0085c5…
09-01 06:14:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0xb76c42…
09-01 03:56:57	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x6cf44e…
09-01 03:54:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xc84e70…
09-01 03:53:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x5c8694…
09-01 01:16:55	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0xdfb09c…
09-01 01:10:01	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xe1a1ff…
08-31 13:43:46	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x9180b3…
08-28 22:35:18	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x6cc5eb…
08-28 20:58:55	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xd28af6…
08-27 11:24:13	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x132a28…
08-24 18:00:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x0486c0…
08-23 16:28:34	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc34c7d…
08-23 08:55:34	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xf84ffa…
08-23 06:11:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	144	22¢	$32	0x33817d…
08-21 09:56:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x9fcb56…
08-18 22:26:12	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	101	81¢	$81	0xe79afc…
08-18 07:28:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x095cf7…
08-18 01:46:40	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x3e1d40…
08-18 01:46:37	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x20dbb8…
08-17 20:26:34	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xbad545…
08-17 17:26:06	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xf00799…
08-16 00:03:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x057ad4…
08-15 19:41:36	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x6f3d00…
08-15 19:41:18	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc654c0…
08-14 21:01:54	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x0b9acc…
08-14 09:47:39	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x43ac69…
08-14 05:39:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	124	93¢	$116	0xbf1585…
08-13 16:28:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xbd9506…
08-13 16:26:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4a4ac9…
08-13 13:13:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x5569be…
08-13 13:13:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x5e5c4c…
08-13 13:13:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x330ffe…
08-13 13:13:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x8bfe00…
08-13 12:57:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x1c7f98…
08-12 20:46:37	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x078f03…
08-12 19:57:31	will bitcoin dip to 63k on august 12	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x7ade7d…
08-12 19:38:48	will bitcoin dip to 63k on august 12	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x954bc5…
08-12 18:31:22	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	BUY	61	10¢	$6	0x4eca91…
08-12 17:05:37	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xfa0f8d…
08-12 17:05:25	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x8c3bdf…
08-11 19:12:10	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x779341…
08-11 14:22:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xee943d…
08-10 21:54:46	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x4373be…
08-10 21:33:48	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	19	33¢	$6	0xbfb7f3…
08-10 21:21:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x1504ad…
08-10 18:55:46	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xe1fb4b…
08-10 14:35:19	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x0e4cb0…
08-09 23:34:43	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0x275e00…
08-09 21:37:30	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	114	13¢	$15	0x4f29e7…
08-09 19:17:55	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x2be81e…
08-09 19:14:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	14	80¢	$12	0x7ffc12…
08-09 17:09:58	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xcf9beb…
08-09 17:07:54	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x128f3a…
08-09 16:37:24	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$4	0xa967b6…
08-09 16:28:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x577d95…
08-09 13:23:01	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x8f5859…
08-09 07:10:52	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0xe3ef99…
08-09 00:57:40	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xd8094d…
08-09 00:13:15	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xd7b311…
08-08 14:45:46	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xdc047c…
08-08 14:39:42	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x28edca…
08-08 11:27:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xa15a1d…
08-07 18:59:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x3fa067…
08-07 18:59:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x5535e2…
08-07 17:30:27	Negative GDP growth in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x55f02f…
08-07 16:30:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	292	48¢	$140	0xd5989a…
08-07 16:20:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xeeb164…
08-07 15:14:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2416df…
08-07 14:31:24	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Yes	BUY	53	32¢	$17	0x7d011a…
08-07 14:05:52	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	86¢	$74	0x8490b4…
08-07 14:04:36	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	3¢	$2	0xbf7ac8…
08-07 12:33:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xdb534b…
08-07 12:32:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xe36183…
08-07 12:32:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x49b9ad…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x5bcc31…
08-07 12:24:52	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0x7d465a…
08-07 12:24:30	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xe025ed…
08-07 12:13:06	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x530768…
08-07 10:05:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	153	94¢	$144	0x93291c…
08-07 09:06:46	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x615a35…
08-07 09:00:52	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x76b834…
08-07 09:00:52	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x380964…
08-07 09:00:19	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xe7a35a…
08-07 09:00:19	Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	74	82¢	$61	0x71fa23…
08-07 09:00:18	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x986abf…
08-07 09:00:18	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x774ea5…
08-07 08:00:40	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x468200…
08-07 07:58:03	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x270ef3…
08-07 06:57:37	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	BUY	69	91¢	$63	0xa9e1d6…
08-07 06:53:19	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x0214c7…
08-07 06:19:28	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x661424…