Realized P&L
-$80
Unrealized P&L
+$76
Hit rate
69.2%
Resolved
1,773
Trades
11,175
lifetime
Volume
$45.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$552
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-10
last 10-31 19:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 193 days
Categories
Other
45% 50% -$203
Politics
40% 62% +$121
Sports
7% 45% -$51
Crypto
4% 54% +$39
Tech
3% 69% +$13
Pop-Culture
0% 33% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 134 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +75 $58 97¢ $73 +$15 10-28 18:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +90 $61 57¢ $52 -$10 10-31 19:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +57 $45 82¢ $47 +$3 10-29 17:54
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +49 $36 72¢ $35 $0 10-28 22:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +33 $16 99¢ $33 +$16 10-25 23:38
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +25 $6 100¢ $25 +$18 09-20 05:52
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +32 $20 70¢ $23 +$2 09-25 23:21
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +22 $13 84¢ $18 +$5 10-25 22:29
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +25 $15 69¢ $17 +$3 10-26 20:53
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +17 $15 92¢ $16 +$1 10-05 13:07
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +40 $10 38¢ $15 +$5 09-21 13:15
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +19 $15 74¢ $14 -$1 10-28 09:44
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No +14 $10 91¢ $13 +$3 10-29 17:46
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +13 $10 97¢ $13 +$3 10-04 16:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +30 $16 42¢ $13 -$4 10-30 23:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +14 $10 91¢ $12 +$2 09-28 17:22
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +12 $9 100¢ $12 +$3 10-23 23:22
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +13 $10 89¢ $12 +$2 10-29 20:53
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +12 $10 96¢ $12 +$2 10-25 12:18
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No +12 $10 92¢ $11 +$1 10-25 14:24
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +12 $10 86¢ $10 +$0 10-28 15:01
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +12 $9 84¢ $10 +$1 10-30 08:46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +9 $4 98¢ $9 +$6 10-19 19:10
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +14 $10 65¢ $9 $0 10-31 15:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +25 $15 34¢ $9 -$7 10-31 12:01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +36 $13 24¢ $8 -$5 10-31 04:18
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +11 $6 76¢ $8 +$2 10-28 20:36
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Bibi +8 $3 100¢ $8 +$5 10-25 06:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +7 $5 100¢ $7 +$2 09-20 06:02
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +8 $5 83¢ $7 +$2 10-16 15:35