Criminal-Causal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$379

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.4%

Resolved

Trades

6,621

lifetime

Volume

$307.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 00:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$23

Politics

43% 83% $-409

Sports

2% 60% +$7

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 106 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	133	$12.8K	6,257	6,733	-476	open	—	01-22 08:04
netanyahu out by march 31 854	125	$9.1K	4,858	4,731	+127	open	—	03-30 09:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	62	$7.9K	4,069	4,069	+0	open	—	04-26 15:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	86	$7.6K	4,064	4,195	-131	open	—	05-26 02:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	78	$7.3K	4,301	3,137	+1,164	open	—	04-16 02:46
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	119	$5.5K	5,160	829	+4,331	open	—	03-30 00:04
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	22	$5.5K	2,890	2,890	+0	open	—	02-27 12:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	160	$5.4K	2,789	2,789	-0	open	—	03-31 01:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	77	$4.8K	4,059	1,038	+3,020	open	—	04-27 13:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	75	$4.6K	2,344	2,344	+0	open	—	03-12 08:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	77	$4.4K	2,252	2,252	+0	open	—	05-25 12:00
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	54	$4.3K	3,679	809	+2,870	open	—	02-21 03:24
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	41	$3.9K	3,724	188	+3,536	open	—	01-08 03:08
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	67	$3.8K	2,624	1,937	+687	open	—	05-26 02:24
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	42	$3.8K	3,914	0	+3,914	open	—	02-09 16:44
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	24	$3.8K	1,708	2,108	-400	open	—	05-12 22:59
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	71	$3.5K	1,848	1,833	+15	open	—	03-01 01:30
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	31	$3.5K	1,768	1,780	-12	open	—	05-26 02:23
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	42	$3.2K	3,038	320	+2,718	open	—	02-01 02:00
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	19	$3.1K	1,712	1,390	+322	open	—	01-04 01:58
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	31	$2.8K	1,701	1,099	+602	open	—	02-18 23:01
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	30	$2.7K	2,730	0	+2,730	open	—	02-26 21:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	26	$2.7K	2,725	134	+2,591	open	—	04-08 20:37
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	49	$2.6K	2,690	0	+2,690	open	—	02-23 22:53
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	85	$2.5K	1,954	839	+1,116	open	—	02-28 22:05
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	33	$2.5K	2,373	164	+2,209	open	—	02-24 20:24
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	136	$2.4K	1,256	1,254	+2	open	—	05-25 15:56
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	57	$2.4K	1,138	1,261	-123	open	—	02-14 01:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	31	$2.2K	2,192	191	+2,001	open	—	01-31 17:57
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	31	$2.2K	2,028	240	+1,788	open	—	02-25 20:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 00:15:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	66	16¢	$11	0xda39a6…
08-11 00:15:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xed2b26…
08-11 00:15:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xddf7f2…
08-11 00:15:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x5cdf53…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xf63245…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xf1cac2…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x8578e1…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x84b51a…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x47634e…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0x42ffdb…
08-11 00:15:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x2c74f6…
08-11 00:15:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x109e84…
08-11 00:14:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x7a4c61…
08-11 00:14:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x49712c…
08-11 00:14:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x07b93f…
08-11 00:14:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x3ce684…
08-11 00:14:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x4887b7…
08-11 00:14:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x8303f7…
08-11 00:14:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xc9a4f1…
08-11 00:14:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	16	16¢	$3	0xf14463…
08-10 05:51:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	1,171	85¢	$995	0xd9c69c…
08-04 17:08:36	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	58	90¢	$52	0xc56bfd…
08-04 16:16:11	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	114	5¢	$6	0xbfdf2f…
08-03 23:48:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb40c23…
08-03 23:46:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	52	50¢	$26	0x6556ff…
08-03 19:43:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	51	44¢	$22	0x1ee3ec…
08-01 14:49:00	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	88	31¢	$27	0x665b28…
08-01 14:41:11	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	57	33¢	$19	0xdd2164…
08-01 14:36:35	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	Yes	BUY	399	33¢	$132	0xa2a682…
07-31 19:32:06	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	644	99¢	$640	0xf81a1f…
07-31 19:19:18	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	255	42¢	$107	0xa0fb73…
07-31 18:22:57	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	116	66¢	$77	0xfbc58c…
07-31 18:17:24	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	56	68¢	$38	0x530b3b…
07-31 18:16:50	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	43	68¢	$29	0xec0f22…
07-31 16:11:24	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x0e859d…
07-31 16:08:47	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0x9fabe9…
07-30 22:37:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	448	24¢	$108	0xee4f67…
07-30 22:05:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	24¢	$4	0xa9476c…
07-30 22:05:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x055744…
07-30 21:11:00	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	654	70¢	$460	0xfbb55f…
07-30 15:55:09	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	148	83¢	$122	0x81694e…
07-20 15:58:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	46	44¢	$20	0x45c9ec…
07-20 15:39:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	648	33¢	$214	0x2c9c9a…
07-17 16:01:30	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	175	15¢	$26	0xd04193…
07-17 16:01:13	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	298	15¢	$45	0xdb516b…
07-17 16:01:01	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	94	15¢	$14	0x885340…
07-17 13:56:09	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	No	BUY	214	30¢	$64	0xc52079…
07-16 21:07:08	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	81	89¢	$72	0x57d835…
07-16 21:07:08	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x0c6a32…
07-16 20:49:07	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xd77f85…
07-03 05:02:01	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	SELL	169	20¢	$34	0x769f16…
07-02 03:46:31	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xd193fa…
07-01 20:56:37	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	138	50¢	$69	0x769622…
07-01 01:25:38	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	61	35¢	$21	0xa7a9a9…
06-30 16:51:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	Yes	BUY	169	35¢	$59	0x8045d6…
06-24 20:10:07	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x3a2c5a…
06-24 17:05:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x422aea…
06-24 17:03:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	94	5¢	$4	0xff3ae8…
06-19 19:52:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	243	22¢	$53	0x09f054…
06-19 19:45:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	117	25¢	$29	0x558937…
06-19 19:15:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	183	28¢	$51	0xf10241…
06-19 18:35:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	189	54¢	$102	0x2ad963…
06-19 18:21:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	151	55¢	$83	0x68db6b…
06-19 18:20:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	70	55¢	$39	0x98220a…
06-19 18:20:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe0699a…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xfe440d…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xf7064e…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x778342…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x68c7bf…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x54aa41…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x365549…
06-19 12:16:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	37	47¢	$18	0x125d5b…
06-19 11:14:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	359	8¢	$29	0xba5d90…
06-19 03:09:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,203	13¢	$156	0xaef54e…
06-18 20:07:04	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0xffbca3…
06-18 19:24:23	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	88	55¢	$48	0xe990df…
06-18 16:10:44	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x228dbf…
06-18 16:10:43	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	21	18¢	$4	0xc331c3…
06-18 16:10:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0xd35e3c…
06-18 16:10:31	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	78	16¢	$13	0x94cd92…
06-18 16:10:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xdc85e8…
06-18 16:10:10	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x3ed351…
06-18 01:23:23	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	47	23¢	$11	0x3f1949…
06-17 22:37:41	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x7958aa…
06-17 22:18:01	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x9adcb7…
06-17 22:10:25	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	16	33¢	$5	0x278403…
06-17 22:09:35	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x20b73b…
06-17 22:09:31	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	83	33¢	$27	0xd52e6a…
06-17 22:03:10	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	No	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xa58be2…
06-16 02:36:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	223	98¢	$218	0x17eab6…
06-15 22:20:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xf9a800…
06-15 22:07:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xab2eb4…
06-15 22:07:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x714798…
06-15 22:03:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x3b4058…
06-15 22:03:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x907485…
06-15 22:02:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x5163bb…
06-15 22:02:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xa76f46…
06-15 22:01:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xadc3c6…
06-15 21:54:10	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	450	85¢	$382	0x7a4a28…
06-15 15:39:09	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x5cdbe9…