Idealistic-Methane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

6.7%

Resolved

Trades

246

lifetime

Volume

$1.15K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 05-11 09:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-20

Politics

25% 0% $-24

Crypto

17% 50% $-1

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	26	$79	506	0	+506	open	—	04-24 15:31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$78	324	323	+1	open	—	04-26 00:03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	7	$75	94	92	+2	No	$-1	04-26 22:04
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	9	$64	465	253	+212	open	—	04-26 23:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	1	$63	522	0	+522	open	—	04-17 12:35
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$46	385	0	+385	open	—	04-17 12:46
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	1	$39	322	0	+322	open	—	04-23 11:57
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?	5	$38	154	0	+154	open	—	04-25 04:14
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	6	$33	111	55	+56	open	—	04-24 14:06
bitcoin above 74k on april 17	4	$30	167	0	+167	open	—	04-17 06:44
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	4	$28	50	0	+50	open	—	04-21 12:07
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	2	$28	60	0	+60	Yes	$-23	04-16 10:11
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$25	72	0	+72	open	—	04-26 12:45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$24	30	0	+30	open	—	05-11 06:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$23	135	135	+0	open	—	05-09 16:45
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	8	$22	142	35	+107	open	—	04-24 14:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$22	364	0	+364	open	—	04-16 10:56
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	18	$21	360	0	+360	open	—	04-26 16:03
bitcoin above 74k on april 16	1	$20	60	0	+60	open	—	04-16 10:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$20	46	0	+46	open	—	04-16 18:28
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	04-16 10:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	1	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	04-16 11:01
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	1	$20	118	0	+118	open	—	04-16 11:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$20	286	0	+286	No	$-20	04-16 12:31
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	04-16 10:53
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	52	0	+52	open	—	04-16 10:48
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 320 339	6	$20	282	0	+282	open	—	04-17 15:35
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	3	$19	235	0	+235	open	—	04-17 03:27
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$18	12	11	+1	open	—	04-26 01:00
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?	8	$14	173	0	+173	open	—	04-17 15:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 09:19:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x1331d6…
05-11 06:49:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xbacf45…
05-11 06:19:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xd2fbc7…
05-11 05:49:23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x630fc9…
05-11 05:19:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xdf7caf…
05-11 04:49:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xddb531…
05-11 04:19:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x88895a…
05-10 00:13:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	43	1¢	$0	0x352c29…
05-09 23:57:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	195	1¢	$2	0x08e756…
05-09 23:45:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x89d2ee…
05-09 23:35:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xe8a2a2…
05-09 16:45:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	135	1¢	$2	0x16360d…
04-27 18:28:38	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 28?	Yes	BUY	303	2¢	$5	0xfc82ea…
04-27 15:59:40	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x0f644c…
04-27 15:58:34	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x64dbc2…
04-26 23:19:34	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	7¢	$8	0xad142b…
04-26 23:01:00	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	143	7¢	$10	0xc192f6…
04-26 23:00:56	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xa08d09…
04-26 22:46:02	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xd36914…
04-26 22:05:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	135	16¢	$22	0xf11e3a…
04-26 22:04:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	24¢	$10	0x04d770…
04-26 19:16:26	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	47	11¢	$5	0x3a15bd…
04-26 17:12:52	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	253	10¢	$25	0xeeaad3…
04-26 16:03:26	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x89afc1…
04-26 14:49:32	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xb32177…
04-26 14:19:30	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x827d19…
04-26 13:23:52	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0xbbba80…
04-26 12:45:36	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	34¢	$25	0x5d7629…
04-26 12:21:26	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0x571c73…
04-26 10:46:30	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xff663c…
04-26 07:10:10	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x8ddf63…
04-26 07:10:10	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x709420…
04-26 07:10:10	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x03e945…
04-26 03:42:28	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x03ba1a…
04-26 02:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0xd28880…
04-26 02:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xbb0acb…
04-26 02:41:20	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$1	0x2f26af…
04-26 02:41:16	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	43	6¢	$3	0x001c50…
04-26 02:33:18	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0xe030f6…
04-26 01:33:40	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x92c73f…
04-26 01:00:56	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x888cbf…
04-26 00:56:08	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xa6e0e6…
04-26 00:50:02	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0x5e582b…
04-26 00:42:42	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4be766…
04-26 00:28:02	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xc5308e…
04-26 00:27:16	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xce972a…
04-26 00:25:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x72dfa4…
04-26 00:10:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	30¢	$12	0x91716c…
04-26 00:03:58	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	323	16¢	$52	0x4da46b…
04-25 10:01:46	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xff75d3…
04-25 09:44:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0x15c665…
04-25 09:44:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xfdafb3…
04-25 09:37:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x3300e5…
04-25 08:20:18	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	10¢	$17	0xdae0d9…
04-25 07:31:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x226fc7…
04-25 07:28:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf1dd3e…
04-25 07:24:20	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb108c5…
04-25 07:23:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2c927d…
04-25 07:21:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x3f16b0…
04-25 07:08:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x919043…
04-25 07:05:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0x79cfbb…
04-25 07:03:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x3307b6…
04-25 07:01:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0xadb433…
04-25 06:44:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xcf40cb…
04-25 06:20:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xe567c2…
04-25 06:20:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb41006…
04-25 06:20:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x6a9492…
04-25 06:16:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	28	1¢	$0	0xd98147…
04-25 06:05:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0x06ae46…
04-25 05:09:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	60	1¢	$1	0xc1d9dc…
04-25 04:39:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x23a2e5…
04-25 04:15:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xe74790…
04-25 04:14:54	Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	25¢	$23	0x2873c2…
04-25 03:34:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x9ce4a7…
04-25 02:19:50	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0x1466dd…
04-25 02:14:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x51458c…
04-25 02:02:48	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xffa530…
04-25 01:38:44	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	88	1¢	$1	0x46b761…
04-25 01:20:40	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x615eaa…
04-25 01:06:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x402bde…
04-25 00:57:56	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xbf9176…
04-25 00:51:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xc19f30…
04-25 00:51:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x358870…
04-25 00:15:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xdee974…
04-25 00:15:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	68¢	$15	0x66701a…
04-25 00:09:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x8620f3…
04-25 00:08:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x3e2a60…
04-24 22:49:18	CD Unión La Calera vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	77	6¢	$5	0xba9801…
04-24 19:48:50	Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	48	7¢	$3	0x57b659…
04-24 17:48:38	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xf6bd87…
04-24 17:48:36	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x0e9956…
04-24 15:31:46	Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	34	14¢	$5	0x9d43eb…
04-24 14:44:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	41¢	$9	0x07c389…
04-24 14:42:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	42¢	$12	0x8849cd…
04-24 14:30:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	58	6¢	$4	0xa4710c…
04-24 14:10:20	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	Yes	BUY	106	10¢	$11	0x37d750…
04-24 14:08:04	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	Yes	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0x554a77…
04-24 14:06:36	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	24¢	$6	0x8989ce…
04-24 14:04:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	54¢	$16	0xd919a0…
04-24 13:45:04	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	Yes	SELL	124	2¢	$3	0x9f2fdc…