Pastel-Inflation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$775

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

40.1%

Resolved

194

Trades

656

lifetime

Volume

$3.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$140

22 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-25 12:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

58% 14% -$720

Crypto

18% 30% +$115

Sports

12% 21% -$143

Politics

12% 32% -$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (22) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$10	84¢	$17	+$7	08-20 14:49
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	+100	$10	14¢	$14	+$4	08-18 20:42
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+136	$1	8¢	$11	+$9	08-10 08:12
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+16	$10	68¢	$11	+$1	10-25 12:27
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+192	$10	6¢	$11	+$0	10-07 11:22
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+61	$10	15¢	$9	-$1	06-17 18:53
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	-39	-$20	20¢	$-8	+$12	06-06 13:02
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+5,000	$10	0¢	$8	-$2	08-03 15:20
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	+31	$10	22¢	$7	-$4	09-04 22:36
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+40	$10	16¢	$6	-$4	09-15 22:41
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	+59	$10	10¢	$6	-$4	07-04 14:51
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+100	$10	6¢	$6	-$4	08-01 08:09
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	+100	$10	6¢	$6	-$4	07-30 14:51
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$10	3¢	$5	-$5	08-27 10:17
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+250	$10	2¢	$5	-$5	09-17 15:07
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+100	$10	3¢	$3	-$7	06-14 12:28
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	+28	$5	10¢	$3	-$2	06-19 06:45
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-15	-$4	15¢	$-2	+$2	06-06 13:00
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	-124	-$3	1¢	$-2	+$1	06-06 13:00
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	-14	-$8	8¢	$-1	+$7	06-06 13:01
ukraine coup attempt by december 31	Yes	+36	$2	3¢	$1	-$1	07-12 04:44
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$1	1¢	$1	+$0	08-17 07:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$219	343	343	+0	Yes	+$199	05-20 17:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$83	141	141	+0	No	+$24	04-08 11:27
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$72	77	77	+0	Yes	+$52	05-21 16:40
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	3	$67	167	167	+0	Yes	+$47	07-03 23:33
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$53	33	33	+0	Yes	+$13	04-08 11:28
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	3	$49	1,111	1,111	+0	No	+$29	07-03 23:33
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	4	$46	43	43	+0	Morocco	+$6	07-04 18:39
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$43	81	28	+53	No	+$3	06-11 15:24
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$40	45	45	+0	Yes	+$20	04-08 11:28
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	3	$38	42	19	+23	England	-$2	07-06 02:15
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$36	256	256	+0	No	+$16	07-01 17:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$35	33	32	+1	No	+$16	04-08 11:29
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	2	$35	301	301	+0	No	+$15	06-25 05:44
will xagusd dip to 52 in august 2026	6	$33	1,040	40	+1,000	No	-$7	08-21 13:33
will xagusd dip to 54 in august 2026	3	$32	1,025	25	+1,000	No	-$8	08-23 22:31
will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	6	$32	1,050	50	+1,000	No	-$8	08-18 20:25
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$30	50	50	+0	No	+$10	07-16 09:29
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	2	$30	29	29	+0	Yes	+$10	07-04 18:41
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$30	20	20	+0	Yes	+$10	07-20 07:09
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	3	$30	902	546	+357	Yes	-$10	06-11 07:28
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	1	$30	0	32	-32	Yes	-$3	06-10 07:05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	4	$30	271	79	+192	open	—	10-07 11:22
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$28	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-22 14:19
will pltr reach 144 in july 2026	4	$27	1,000	280	+720	No	+$7	07-31 17:29
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$25	15	15	+0	Yes	+$5	07-08 05:26
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	2	$25	15	15	+0	Yes	+$5	07-21 21:05
will ethereum dip to 1800 in july 2026 from july 14	2	$24	20	20	+0	No	+$4	07-18 19:31
will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	2	$23	40	40	+0	No	+$3	07-18 19:31
will xrp dip to 0pt8 in august 2026	2	$22	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$2	08-21 11:41
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in august 2026	3	$22	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$2	08-21 11:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 12:27:03	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x09d31d…
10-07 11:22:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0x14eeb0…
10-07 11:20:50	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	5¢	$5	0x4ff786…
10-05 20:50:38	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xaa3628…
10-04 17:53:13	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	47	20¢	$9	0xe0bc41…
10-04 17:53:13	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x23acdd…
10-03 01:51:45	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xf58d66…
10-02 22:51:44	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd41d80…
10-01 07:30:42	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x34da46…
10-01 07:30:42	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2e0800…
10-01 06:17:17	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xa51199…
10-01 06:17:15	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x20683d…
10-01 00:34:54	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xd6816c…
10-01 00:34:53	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x4ca33c…
09-30 22:27:48	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xe68468…
09-30 22:27:48	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 55,000 and 60,000?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0xacfefc…
09-23 20:28:38	Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7e7eb9…
09-23 13:18:25	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x8ea612…
09-23 10:24:35	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x46756c…
09-22 14:19:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$18	0x40ec64…
09-22 05:31:06	Will Solana reach $130 in September?	Yes	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0xb019d9…
09-22 03:26:38	Will Solana reach $130 in September?	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x9722e9…
09-21 13:43:15	Will XRP reach $1.60 in September?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf33877…
09-18 14:02:00	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x4b1d5f…
09-17 15:07:49	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xf08926…
09-15 22:41:30	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xc87524…
09-12 11:21:07	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x72add2…
09-12 08:33:43	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0x739f26…
09-12 08:33:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0x4dacaf…
09-12 08:30:46	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,400 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$1	0x22647f…
09-11 13:01:48	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x40b894…
09-10 18:33:37	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x341129…
09-10 12:19:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x0f2a82…
09-07 01:37:48	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0xd2c17e…
09-06 12:07:55	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1ce32e…
09-05 21:47:09	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xe3d3df…
09-05 13:23:55	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0xfef609…
09-04 22:36:18	Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xe9c8e9…
09-04 20:33:48	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x01a805…
09-04 11:47:46	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7b4d13…
08-31 20:30:33	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-08-31?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0x0bf511…
08-31 20:29:33	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xa7e08c…
08-30 09:10:49	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in August?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x6990a0…
08-27 17:51:10	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in August?	Yes	BUY	207	1¢	$2	0x265b33…
08-27 14:06:42	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August?	Yes	BUY	537	1¢	$5	0x5e3796…
08-27 13:59:52	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in August?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xbacd23…
08-27 13:57:25	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in August?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x15a630…
08-27 13:57:22	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in August?	Yes	BUY	773	1¢	$8	0xf594f3…
08-27 13:56:48	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in August?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xe59d14…
08-27 13:41:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August?	Yes	BUY	368	1¢	$4	0xfe6a54…
08-27 13:17:24	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x737aac…
08-27 13:08:30	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	731	1¢	$7	0x9f8666…
08-27 11:34:45	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xa87ed7…
08-27 10:48:45	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x809ea4…
08-27 10:17:39	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf1c6c0…
08-27 10:14:15	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x39cf54…
08-27 09:28:36	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0xdf1c54…
08-27 09:14:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xaba6e2…
08-27 08:12:36	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x4d6f98…
08-27 08:11:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?	Yes	BUY	60	1¢	$1	0x21c514…
08-27 07:51:31	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xe6d6a9…
08-27 07:17:18	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x98ede7…
08-27 07:14:22	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x2b925a…
08-27 03:25:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?	Yes	BUY	758	1¢	$8	0xff9339…
08-27 02:55:03	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x86b6a1…
08-27 02:29:34	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x36755a…
08-27 01:38:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?	Yes	BUY	635	1¢	$6	0xd3d7bb…
08-27 01:30:15	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in August?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x61aa95…
08-27 01:14:54	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x6857de…
08-27 01:00:40	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xc148a2…
08-27 00:16:21	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x858a93…
08-26 22:18:45	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x40b615…
08-26 22:05:09	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x086705…
08-26 21:54:33	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xadce36…
08-26 21:49:36	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xdd2b6a…
08-26 19:59:58	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xa818b5…
08-26 19:48:19	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfb5785…
08-26 19:40:40	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	Yes	BUY	538	1¢	$5	0x2ed86a…
08-26 19:40:37	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in August?	Yes	BUY	462	1¢	$5	0x73673a…
08-26 14:33:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in August?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xd27e5e…
08-26 13:57:07	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in August?	Yes	BUY	793	1¢	$8	0xe9b4a5…
08-26 02:37:18	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0xb0392d…
08-25 19:04:46	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf27cc0…
08-25 19:04:45	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xeaa891…
08-25 14:34:40	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0x258c33…
08-25 08:23:58	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $100 in August?	Yes	BUY	546	1¢	$5	0x111530…
08-25 01:54:42	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?	Yes	BUY	769	1¢	$8	0x5d07f6…
08-25 00:43:19	Will Solana dip to $70 in August?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xb2baa3…
08-24 19:55:39	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in August?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x94587b…
08-24 19:12:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?	Yes	BUY	978	1¢	$10	0x8ab4b0…
08-24 16:16:52	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $100 in August?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xb0822a…
08-24 16:08:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfcd734…
08-24 16:08:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xa29e5a…
08-24 16:03:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	17	1¢	$0	0x0dbdaf…
08-24 16:03:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x68c8fb…
08-24 15:58:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x8eeb28…
08-24 15:56:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x321df8…
08-24 15:54:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0xeff219…
08-24 15:53:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	505	1¢	$5	0x9d03fd…
08-24 15:52:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$0	0xb656db…