Realized P&L
+$375
Unrealized P&L
-$36
Hit rate
69.6%
Resolved
2,845
Trades
17,419
lifetime
Volume
$547.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$2.95K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-09
last 10-28 00:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 154 days
Categories
Other
82% 65% -$457
Crypto
17% 91% +$318
Politics
1% 76% +$406
Sports
1% 64% +$107
Tech
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 2251 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No +496 $435 92¢ $454 +$19 09-22 14:17
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No +498 $404 85¢ $422 +$18 10-23 16:01
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +293 $216 98¢ $287 +$72 10-27 19:33
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +321 $262 83¢ $267 +$5 10-28 00:54
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +400 $290 52¢ $206 -$84 10-26 09:16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +255 $178 75¢ $192 +$13 10-26 19:08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +278 $133 63¢ $174 +$40 10-17 21:34
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? No +268 $134 60¢ $161 +$27 10-18 00:29
will ethereum dip to 2000 in october 2026 No +130 $119 97¢ $126 +$7 10-14 12:41
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? No +100 $60 98¢ $98 +$38 10-27 19:33
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +100 $84 94¢ $94 +$10 10-25 13:46
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +100 $77 82¢ $82 +$5 08-25 14:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +100 $71 75¢ $75 +$4 10-27 19:33
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +100 $58 72¢ $72 +$14 10-27 19:35
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +334 $66 22¢ $72 +$5 10-27 19:33
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +50 $39 78¢ $39 +$0 10-08 18:19
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? No +30 $18 95¢ $29 +$11 10-21 10:00
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +100 $30 25¢ $25 -$5 10-08 17:24
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? Yes +272 $76 5¢ $13 -$63 10-22 09:00
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October? Yes +454 $24 3¢ $12 -$11 10-26 19:12
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? No +62 $49 15¢ $10 -$40 10-19 06:55
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +10 $9 90¢ $9 +$0 10-21 09:52
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +9 $6 72¢ $6 +$0 10-25 17:59
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? No +293 $89 2¢ $5 -$84 10-11 08:46
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Yes +29 $5 15¢ $4 -$1 10-01 09:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +100 $4 4¢ $4 $0 10-27 22:43
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +100 $6 3¢ $3 -$3 08-25 16:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +65 $1 4¢ $2 +$1 10-27 20:27
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October? Yes +136 $12 2¢ $2 -$10 10-18 22:39
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes +100 $29 2¢ $2 -$27 10-10 09:46