Realized P&L
+$16.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$13.9K
Hit rate
85.3%
Resolved
320
Trades
15,189
lifetime
Volume
$4.78M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$315
Open exposure
$222.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 04:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 126 days
Categories
Politics
53% 69% -$232
Other
46% 71% +$15,725
Tech
1% 89% +$1,048
Crypto
1% 97% +$144
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$15
Sports
0% 57% -$133
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 330 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +38,477 $34,116 92¢ $35.2K +$1,091 10-24 05:40
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +32,379 $28,100 86¢ $27.8K -$253 10-25 20:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +26,467 $24,312 100¢ $26.3K +$2,036 10-27 00:56
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +22,796 $21,021 92¢ $20.9K -$163 10-25 23:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +24,876 $18,600 82¢ $20.3K +$1,675 10-21 19:55
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +15,869 $14,343 79¢ $12.5K -$1,807 10-27 00:23
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +9,982 $6,398 94¢ $9.4K +$3,031 09-20 20:12
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +9,104 $7,554 92¢ $8.3K +$776 10-15 20:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +7,836 $4,052 96¢ $7.5K +$3,470 10-27 03:57
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +7,771 $4,593 92¢ $7.1K +$2,517 09-14 21:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +7,173 $6,163 98¢ $7.0K +$871 09-28 00:53
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No +6,760 $6,553 97¢ $6.6K +$21 10-25 16:06
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +6,058 $5,170 94¢ $5.7K +$494 07-19 10:36
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +3,854 $3,692 98¢ $3.8K +$81 10-19 09:10
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +3,888 $3,330 96¢ $3.7K +$417 10-12 00:02
Iran leadership change by October 31? No +3,111 $2,899 99¢ $3.1K +$192 09-25 15:51
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes +2,999 $2,643 90¢ $2.7K +$56 10-23 12:56
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +4,004 $2,528 64¢ $2.6K +$55 10-25 20:04
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No -3,047 -$3,422 84¢ $-2574 +$847 10-10 11:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +1,910 $1,661 94¢ $1.8K +$134 10-16 11:35
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,340 $1,722 72¢ $1.7K -$49 10-25 09:34
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +2,000 $1,453 82¢ $1.6K +$178 10-18 13:50
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No -1,250 -$1,100 97¢ $-1214 -$114 05-11 15:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,107 $2,567 37¢ $1.1K -$1,428 10-24 17:34
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes +888 $456 54¢ $475 +$19 10-26 11:28
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -800 -$324 57¢ $-456 -$132 05-24 02:35
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No -350 -$294 98¢ $-341 -$47 05-26 18:29
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes -500 -$215 66¢ $-328 -$112 07-19 22:51
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +310 $306 94¢ $290 -$16 10-26 11:30
Stripe IPO before 2027? No +267 $246 98¢ $261 +$15 05-04 22:57