Well-Informed-Pier 0xd5db05…2c3c45
whale hot 5W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$2.92K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.82K
Hit rate
54.5%
Resolved
396
Trades
4,383
lifetime
Volume
$287.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$66
Open exposure
$6.55K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 21:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 120 days
Categories
Politics
47% 38% +$4,253
Other
40% 35% -$186
Sports
9% 30% -$1,143
Crypto
4% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 120 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1,200 $996 88¢ $1.1K +$66 09-14 09:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,123 $731 44¢ $945 +$214 10-19 05:32
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +805 $628 87¢ $700 +$72 09-16 13:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +700 $472 99¢ $693 +$221 10-12 18:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,000 $619 26¢ $510 -$109 10-30 14:25
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +1,087 $463 46¢ $495 +$32 10-30 09:56
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +310 $229 88¢ $271 +$42 09-18 13:55
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +841 $160 32¢ $269 +$109 11-01 15:34
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,826 $420 12¢ $228 -$192 10-27 12:45
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +2,966 $25 6¢ $193 +$167 10-31 18:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -1,000 -$286 18¢ $-175 +$111 05-05 23:41
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 No +218 $17 74¢ $163 +$146 10-20 14:32
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? Yes +620 $203 26¢ $158 -$44 11-01 13:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +1,200 $216 12¢ $138 -$78 09-16 14:16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +810 $244 13¢ $105 -$138 09-30 09:44
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? No +250 -$24 38¢ $94 +$118 10-29 20:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +483 $99 18¢ $85 -$15 11-01 09:32
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +585 $103 13¢ $76 -$26 10-30 22:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,698 -$252 4¢ $-70 +$181 09-20 19:51
us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918 Yes +218 $92 26¢ $56 -$36 09-24 08:33
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +1,330 $32 2¢ $23 -$10 06-02 16:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +10 -$71 92¢ $9 +$80 07-18 15:17
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 No +868 -$710 1¢ $9 +$719 10-30 00:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +6 -$255 93¢ $6 +$261 08-23 11:47
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +5 $4 97¢ $5 +$0 06-24 11:39
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -5 -$4 96¢ $-5 $0 06-15 16:53
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +5 -$103 86¢ $5 +$108 08-23 11:45
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +5 $71 62¢ $3 -$67 08-14 12:47
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +5 $107 20¢ $1 -$106 09-10 07:33
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639 Yes +6 $2 14¢ $1 -$1 07-17 10:58