Realized P&L
+$191
Unrealized P&L
+$493
Hit rate
89.7%
Resolved
77
Trades
476
lifetime
Volume
$111.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$235
Open exposure
$22.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-20
last 10-29 19:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Politics
49% 82% -$1,168
Other
41% 89% +$1,169
Sports
7% 100% +$166
Tech
3% 100% +$25
Crypto
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
16 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,300 $1,664 82¢ $1.9K +$234 10-03 08:10
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +1,800 $1,692 94¢ $1.7K -$9 10-04 20:03
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -1,600 -$1,506 94¢ $-1512 -$6 10-19 13:11
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +1,500 $1,348 97¢ $1.5K +$109 09-21 18:15
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,300 $1,274 98¢ $1.3K -$6 10-03 09:22
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $960 98¢ $980 +$20 10-03 08:16
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $930 98¢ $979 +$49 10-03 08:15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +1,000 $890 97¢ $967 +$77 06-07 08:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +900 $792 94¢ $850 +$58 07-30 12:18
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +900 $830 94¢ $842 +$12 10-29 19:16
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $785 84¢ $835 +$50 08-02 19:01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +1,000 $690 76¢ $765 +$75 08-02 22:09
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +1,000 $865 72¢ $720 -$145 09-22 15:45
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +700 $630 92¢ $648 +$18 07-08 11:53
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No -624 -$607 98¢ $-610 -$2 10-15 02:32
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +600 $512 98¢ $588 +$76 10-03 08:08
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No +600 $552 96¢ $573 +$21 09-13 10:10
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +600 $366 92¢ $549 +$183 07-04 13:08
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +650 $461 80¢ $520 +$59 07-31 06:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +850 $748 60¢ $506 -$242 10-29 19:41
New pandemic in 2026? No +500 $440 97¢ $484 +$44 06-06 17:57
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +500 $430 94¢ $472 +$42 07-08 15:44
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30? No +500 $445 94¢ $470 +$25 10-17 11:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +500 $425 86¢ $432 +$8 10-11 14:09
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +504 $610 82¢ $414 -$195 09-21 18:14
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 No +350 $282 97¢ $341 +$59 10-11 17:27
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes +400 $332 84¢ $338 +$6 09-13 08:24
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +235 $247 83¢ $195 -$52 10-17 11:27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +269 $170 37¢ $100 -$70 09-13 08:44
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No -100 -$94 97¢ $-97 -$3 09-13 15:23