Ragged-Dose — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.7%

Resolved

Trades

896

lifetime

Volume

$4.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 00:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

52% 0% $-15

Other

44% 67% +$8

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	4	$203	21	185	-164	open	—	06-14 17:41
will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	14	$148	226	0	+226	open	—	08-02 17:58
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?	13	$132	84	58	+26	open	—	07-03 20:04
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	3	$108	65	65	+0	open	—	02-22 20:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$94	53	53	+0	open	—	04-21 21:41
will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	10	$93	115	54	+61	open	—	08-01 17:20
starmer out by june 22 2026	6	$88	101	101	+0	open	—	06-22 08:34
Eric Swalwell charged by May 31?	4	$71	85	0	+85	open	—	04-17 14:28
will trumps approval rating be between 42pt0 and 42pt4 on january 9 2026	10	$69	45	35	+10	open	—	01-10 02:09
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?	4	$68	43	29	+13	open	—	06-22 08:39
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	13	$68	49	51	-2	open	—	04-27 19:30
will keir starmer say reform 3 times during the next prime ministers questions	4	$63	73	0	+73	open	—	02-04 12:38
will anyone charged over daycare fraud in minnesota be deported by march 31	2	$63	34	34	+0	open	—	03-18 23:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$63	54	50	+4	open	—	04-26 19:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	7	$61	40	100	-60	open	—	08-02 14:03
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	7	$59	95	0	+95	open	—	06-14 20:10
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	5	$54	26	32	-6	open	—	08-05 22:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$51	29	29	+0	open	—	01-27 01:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	9	$51	1,297	275	+1,021	Yes	$-10	05-09 18:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	6	$51	34	34	+0	open	—	04-27 13:58
x banned in uk by march 31	3	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	02-25 17:03
will trump sue powell by march 31	4	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	02-11 20:42
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	8	$48	34	34	+0	open	—	04-27 19:24
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	6	$48	58	0	+58	open	—	06-23 09:23
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$45	58	38	+20	open	—	04-24 20:26
Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31?	1	$40	41	0	+41	open	—	04-07 12:49
Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	3	$39	30	10	+21	open	—	06-29 17:53
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?	4	$39	25	25	+0	No	+$10	04-06 13:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	5	$37	22	22	+0	open	—	04-30 20:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	6	$36	24	24	+0	open	—	04-25 18:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 00:20:09	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x50073d…
08-10 01:46:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x07cfb6…
08-07 18:11:28	SPLC found guilty in 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf1e80b…
08-06 08:35:06	Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x7c07b2…
08-05 22:11:39	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xdf85ab…
08-04 00:31:02	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$4	0xfa8499…
08-03 09:10:48	anthropic vs openai greater valuation growth august 2026 20260801002110202	Anthropic	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x5ef385…
08-03 08:04:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xcf2d32…
08-02 17:58:06	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xe03d7a…
08-02 16:33:17	will spider man brand new day beat avengers endgames opening weekend record 20260731162713556	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9c6a2b…
08-02 14:14:41	will bryan johnson have sex again by august 31	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x3538f0…
08-02 14:10:57	Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x3be713…
08-02 14:03:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xe7c11b…
08-01 19:36:21	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x84d68e…
08-01 18:04:30	SPLC found guilty in 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x00384d…
08-01 18:03:53	Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	No	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x5f9028…
08-01 18:01:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0xb14c02…
08-01 17:59:42	Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xc674d3…
08-01 17:44:21	James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x7f0631…
08-01 17:20:33	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x651cf7…
08-01 17:18:36	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x517aa1…
08-01 17:17:59	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x9a1037…
08-01 17:17:39	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	SELL	46	59¢	$27	0xd475d9…
08-01 17:11:11	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc8ff10…
08-01 16:38:39	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfb788a…
08-01 15:32:23	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0xc97095…
08-01 15:12:14	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc7bc67…
08-01 15:11:35	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x06e8b0…
08-01 15:00:56	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x8e38d9…
08-01 15:00:42	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xfe2655…
07-31 10:41:32	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x538dd0…
07-31 10:41:03	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x8deff6…
07-31 10:39:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x6dd491…
07-31 10:27:33	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xd83a5d…
07-30 06:07:14	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xebe357…
07-27 09:47:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x74aae2…
07-26 08:33:37	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x0296ff…
07-24 12:25:27	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4df0c0…
07-20 00:43:12	Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x5d1706…
07-19 16:40:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xaee9bd…
07-19 16:37:33	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x1804ea…
07-18 15:24:42	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	SELL	84	0¢	$0	0xfa8a47…
07-18 15:22:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x23a148…
07-17 13:39:45	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0xe4a705…
07-15 11:59:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	18¢	$6	0x964801…
07-15 11:59:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x9a260b…
07-15 11:53:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfd9d78…
07-14 19:37:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xc4bfb6…
07-14 18:31:40	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x27e456…
07-14 04:01:28	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x07d4d2…
07-13 20:40:35	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x11f1e9…
07-13 20:38:53	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5695dd…
07-13 17:33:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0fa3bf…
07-13 17:31:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x3f917e…
07-13 16:39:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf20197…
07-13 13:14:58	Don Lemon sentenced to prison?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xfd2d17…
07-11 23:29:25	Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x1c45c7…
07-11 12:43:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x1ab616…
07-11 12:42:46	Kash Patel out by December 31?	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x69b2f4…
07-08 19:29:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x40e75d…
07-08 19:23:47	SPLC found guilty in 2026?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xff9908…
07-08 16:58:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x0cac2c…
07-08 00:40:44	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x471dcf…
07-07 14:02:14	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xc5fdda…
07-06 14:51:10	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x67d848…
07-06 12:43:46	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x0bc291…
07-06 05:48:35	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x4a65a1…
07-05 18:56:46	Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x46bb5d…
07-05 17:17:56	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x181a72…
07-05 17:17:49	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xcbfe8c…
07-04 20:08:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xd8f5b5…
07-04 04:26:17	Tim Walz in jail by December 31?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x6cfa70…
07-03 20:09:37	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x82590e…
07-03 20:04:50	Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7641d1…
07-03 04:30:07	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x981778…
07-01 10:53:52	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xc8b289…
07-01 08:31:17	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x635f5a…
07-01 07:10:13	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Something	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x779934…
06-30 09:29:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x4b3b95…
06-29 17:53:41	Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x0a927b…
06-29 14:14:56	Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9e92dc…
06-28 14:58:34	McDonald's CEO out by June 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5e3c20…
06-28 14:56:13	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xb30c0c…
06-28 14:49:55	will ed miliband be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533209	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x63d9f9…
06-28 14:49:17	will starmer officially leave office by july 31 20260622151504654	No	BUY	268	2¢	$5	0x8ac1af…
06-27 22:01:20	Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x91200f…
06-27 16:24:34	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xa90463…
06-26 13:22:09	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0x8844eb…
06-26 13:21:40	Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x7d6c41…
06-26 13:21:36	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xf0f554…
06-26 13:16:15	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x420755…
06-26 13:15:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xcc409a…
06-26 13:15:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x4841b1…
06-26 13:07:27	will the next uk election be called by june 30 2027	No	BUY	33	81¢	$27	0x1e1a9e…
06-25 05:27:05	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x1dace0…
06-24 10:54:53	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x57f6f4…
06-23 17:05:01	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x2dbb2b…
06-23 17:02:16	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xa7819f…
06-23 12:32:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x3acf9f…
06-23 09:47:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd3b1ac…