Determined-Mayonnaise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$214

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,952

lifetime

Volume

$663.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$225

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 08-08 15:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

58% 71% +$208

Other

29% 25% $-64

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

5% 0% $-319

Sports

1% 50% +$389

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	85	$42.1K	32,990	32,990	+0	open	—	02-28 07:21
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	49	$19.9K	55,375	45,375	+10,000	open	—	04-30 20:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$18.6K	10,733	10,733	+0	open	—	03-04 19:07
another us government shutdown by february 14	29	$15.9K	21,687	21,687	+0	open	—	02-14 02:43
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	47	$15.8K	14,004	14,004	+0	open	—	02-12 18:03
us strikes iraq by march 7	31	$15.7K	11,090	11,090	+0	open	—	03-08 07:21
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	25	$15.2K	12,245	8,292	+3,953	open	—	06-15 15:44
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$11.9K	10,007	2,107	+7,901	open	—	03-04 18:24
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$10.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	02-12 20:58
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	52	$10.2K	11,187	11,187	+0	open	—	07-01 09:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$10.2K	8,879	8,879	+0	open	—	03-15 22:21
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	19	$9.3K	8,457	6,394	+2,063	open	—	08-05 19:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	25	$9.3K	10,767	5,995	+4,771	open	—	05-26 08:29
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	7	$8.4K	4,947	4,947	+0	open	—	02-07 00:31
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	2	$8.1K	8,501	0	+8,501	open	—	02-06 22:45
us forces enter iran by march 7	4	$8.1K	6,923	6,923	+0	open	—	03-05 05:04
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	24	$8.0K	7,143	7,143	+0	open	—	05-21 17:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$7.8K	14,200	14,200	+0	open	—	03-02 06:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	9	$7.6K	12,528	12,528	+0	open	—	05-14 08:49
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	16	$7.6K	7,300	8,365	-1,065	open	—	02-01 05:30
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	45	$6.7K	30,088	26,923	+3,166	open	—	04-30 01:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	9	$6.1K	3,677	3,677	+0	open	—	04-29 05:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	19	$5.8K	5,660	5,660	+0	open	—	05-26 16:46
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2	$5.6K	3,248	3,248	+0	open	—	02-15 05:29
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$5.6K	17,512	27,512	-10,000	open	—	06-02 05:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	26	$5.6K	5,020	4,447	+572	open	—	03-07 01:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	7	$5.5K	5,348	3,547	+1,802	open	—	05-12 05:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	12	$5.4K	3,897	3,897	-0	open	—	06-26 20:52
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	17	$5.1K	8,207	6,696	+1,511	open	—	05-23 07:48
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	14	$5.1K	3,133	3,133	+0	open	—	06-22 22:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 15:31:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,222	5¢	$60	0xe18e07…
08-08 15:31:13	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,858	5¢	$91	0x7442f2…
08-07 15:07:00	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,077	13¢	$412	0x2dac30…
08-05 19:23:56	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	2,192	4¢	$83	0x0d8a27…
08-05 19:23:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4,988	13¢	$648	0xca5d68…
08-05 19:19:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	1,934	9¢	$166	0xc25532…
08-05 19:16:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,602	16¢	$256	0xef836d…
08-04 01:51:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	301	14¢	$42	0x08c633…
08-04 01:42:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x8c0a8f…
08-04 01:41:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xe5d47e…
08-04 01:39:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	25	14¢	$4	0x99b4bf…
08-04 01:38:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5,266	14¢	$737	0xcf364d…
08-03 22:00:51	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	1,275	67¢	$854	0x44fa9e…
08-03 20:13:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	400	42¢	$168	0x9e6e51…
08-03 20:06:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	756	42¢	$317	0x784951…
08-03 13:17:12	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	325	67¢	$218	0x8bbbbc…
08-03 07:06:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,424	42¢	$596	0xe90fd6…
08-03 07:01:12	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	1,758	1¢	$11	0x7e94a3…
08-03 06:58:51	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	1,758	24¢	$431	0xa4c45b…
08-03 06:49:53	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	420	25¢	$105	0x124082…
08-03 06:41:41	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2,334	25¢	$581	0x01e198…
08-03 06:39:45	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	1,603	24¢	$377	0x6c0180…
08-03 06:00:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	299	63¢	$189	0xf25ceb…
08-03 05:16:57	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0x43c6ff…
08-03 01:13:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	2,000	13¢	$260	0x78336f…
08-03 00:42:35	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	750	61¢	$458	0x13d257…
08-03 00:42:26	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x72c85d…
08-03 00:42:21	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x251a21…
08-03 00:19:53	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	9,190	5¢	$450	0x91531a…
08-01 19:49:15	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	322	9¢	$29	0x5a2269…
08-01 19:44:45	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	59	38¢	$22	0x030477…
08-01 19:40:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	3,600	7¢	$252	0x926df7…
08-01 19:29:18	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	149	100¢	$149	0x712e78…
07-31 20:18:35	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	12,000	6¢	$720	0xaf32a8…
07-31 19:48:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1,437	37¢	$532	0xf81800…
07-31 19:48:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0xd6d215…
07-31 19:48:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0xdcd131…
07-31 19:48:12	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	3,546	37¢	$1,312	0x8a5b59…
07-31 19:45:36	grvt fdv above 550m one day after launch	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3c6555…
07-31 19:42:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	204	15¢	$31	0x3be4f0…
07-31 19:42:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x8aa934…
07-31 19:42:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	4,786	15¢	$718	0x0f452f…
07-31 19:35:21	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	149	100¢	$148	0x5c98fc…
07-31 18:09:33	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2,310	74¢	$1,709	0xb231d7…
07-31 17:33:32	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	86	74¢	$63	0x1e0f57…
07-31 15:37:00	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	21	74¢	$15	0x48133e…
07-31 15:36:47	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	230	74¢	$170	0x6b5eb8…
07-31 15:26:48	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x9745b6…
07-31 15:26:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	77	43¢	$33	0x2008d1…
07-31 15:25:54	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	152	43¢	$65	0x1e50f9…
07-31 15:25:53	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	200	43¢	$86	0x31a8b8…
07-31 15:25:50	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x9869a4…
07-31 15:25:32	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	56	43¢	$24	0x5faf52…
07-31 15:19:29	grvt fdv above 600m one day after launch	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x144a39…
07-31 15:16:36	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	47	43¢	$20	0xbd1a09…
07-31 14:57:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	5,149	6¢	$309	0x0bb336…
07-31 14:54:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5,149	88¢	$4,531	0x2deadb…
07-31 14:52:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x06d32a…
07-31 14:51:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	170	88¢	$150	0xc2d19e…
07-31 14:47:54	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	207	99¢	$205	0xf609d9…
07-31 14:47:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x034bbc…
07-31 14:47:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0xa36dc3…
07-31 14:47:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	950	88¢	$836	0x81b107…
07-31 14:43:12	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	333	74¢	$246	0x199d21…
07-31 14:42:29	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	82	74¢	$61	0xa24ffa…
07-31 14:41:00	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	57	74¢	$42	0x1eab61…
07-31 14:39:08	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	26	74¢	$19	0xee3cc6…
07-31 14:38:32	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xfeb86b…
07-31 14:37:51	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	300	99¢	$296	0x53f6d6…
07-31 14:33:32	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	167	70¢	$118	0x1ecdc6…
07-31 14:18:23	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	288	16¢	$46	0x103f29…
07-31 07:58:48	grvt fdv above 450m one day after launch	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0x040f73…
07-31 07:58:30	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	SELL	96	97¢	$93	0x61c465…
07-31 02:26:17	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	27	34¢	$9	0x21b789…
07-31 02:18:08	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	60	34¢	$21	0x28b188…
07-31 02:15:42	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	255	34¢	$86	0xc56908…
07-31 02:07:30	grvt fdv above 250m one day after launch	No	BUY	129	60¢	$77	0x5236d6…
07-31 02:06:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x3abfcc…
07-31 02:05:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x68e1cf…
07-31 02:03:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	365	73¢	$265	0x8c9770…
07-31 01:53:24	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	SELL	246	97¢	$238	0xb77a6e…
07-30 21:16:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xfad635…
07-30 21:16:17	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x929006…
07-30 20:41:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	107	82¢	$88	0x61fd26…
07-30 20:33:33	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	SELL	237	85¢	$201	0xf8dd11…
07-30 08:36:47	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	997	80¢	$798	0x66ef97…
07-30 08:35:39	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,038	1¢	$6	0x91e011…
07-30 08:35:36	grvt fdv above 400m one day after launch	No	BUY	112	47¢	$53	0x4bfcf9…
07-30 08:35:12	grvt fdv above 350m one day after launch	No	BUY	112	38¢	$43	0x212340…
07-30 08:34:02	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	192	33¢	$64	0xdce433…
07-28 19:21:52	will ansem reach 0pt6 before 2027	No	SELL	138	78¢	$108	0x7e98e2…
07-28 19:04:43	will ansem reach 0pt6 before 2027	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0xba2506…
07-27 21:13:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,360	45¢	$612	0x7b6564…
07-27 21:12:39	mitch mcconnell votes in the senate by july 31 20260707171829812	No	SELL	645	95¢	$614	0x7c825d…
07-27 21:12:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,449	44¢	$640	0x6194cd…
07-27 21:04:18	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1,954	32¢	$625	0xad260c…
07-27 21:03:28	GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xd3695d…
07-27 06:59:04	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x79e3f0…
07-26 21:48:39	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,293	7¢	$231	0x262bd4…
07-26 21:47:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4,000	7¢	$280	0x4d7cfc…