Determined-Mayonnaise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$261

Hit rate

66.4%

Resolved

477

Trades

3,763

lifetime

Volume

$742.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$197

Open exposure

$3.06K

20 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 10-27 09:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Politics

58% 57% -$17,552

Other

29% 45% +$3,321

Tech

6% 52% +$2,648

Crypto

5% 39% -$268

Sports

2% 57% +$1,829

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+1,127	$814	94¢	$1.1K	+$251	10-24 00:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+1,198	$677	68¢	$809	+$132	10-24 15:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+1,198	$516	32¢	$389	-$127	10-27 09:04
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+329	$247	93¢	$305	+$59	10-24 08:21
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	+2,931	$369	4¢	$107	-$262	10-27 09:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$66	94¢	$94	+$28	10-23 23:41
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+98	$78	92¢	$90	+$13	10-23 22:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	+1,127	$334	6¢	$62	-$272	10-26 22:42
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	+75	$62	78¢	$59	-$3	10-24 18:59
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	+329	$87	7¢	$23	-$64	10-24 00:34
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	+20	$10	94¢	$19	+$9	10-26 13:54
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+75	$12	22¢	$16	+$4	10-24 18:00
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+98	$20	8¢	$7	-$13	10-27 09:03
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+100	$40	6¢	$6	-$34	10-23 23:23
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$8	6¢	$1	-$7	10-26 18:02
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	+1	$1	92¢	$1	+$0	06-06 10:22
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Yes	+1	$0	8¢	$0	+$1	06-18 15:22
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	+0	$19	80¢	$0	-$19	07-27 06:59
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+0	-$20	13¢	$0	+$20	06-12 11:15
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	-$23	7¢	$0	+$23	07-15 13:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	85	$42.1K	32,990	32,990	+0	Yes	-$10,788	02-28 07:21
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	49	$19.9K	55,375	45,375	+10,000	No	+$713	04-30 20:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	14	$18.6K	10,733	10,733	+0	No	+$827	03-04 19:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	18	$16.6K	13,624	13,624	+0	open	—	06-11 22:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	30	$16.4K	12,245	12,245	+0	Yes	+$344	06-15 15:44
another us government shutdown by february 14	29	$15.9K	21,687	21,687	+0	No	-$710	02-14 02:43
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	47	$15.8K	14,004	14,004	+0	Yes	+$1,500	02-12 18:03
us strikes iraq by march 7	31	$15.7K	11,090	11,090	+0	Yes	-$156	03-08 07:21
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	10	$11.9K	10,007	2,107	+7,901	Yes	-$19	03-04 18:24
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$10.6K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$600	02-12 20:58
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	21	$10.6K	10,676	6,394	+4,282	Yes	+$683	08-10 23:04
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	52	$10.2K	11,187	11,187	+0	Yes	+$2,344	07-01 09:03
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	22	$10.2K	8,879	8,879	+0	No	-$1,102	03-15 22:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$9.5K	30,512	30,512	+0	No	+$46	06-02 05:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	26	$9.4K	10,767	10,767	+0	No	+$272	05-27 15:10
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	7	$8.4K	4,947	4,947	+0	Yes	+$1,326	02-07 00:31
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026	2	$8.1K	8,501	0	+8,501	Yes	+$353	02-06 22:45
us forces enter iran by march 7	4	$8.1K	6,923	6,923	+0	No	-$3,099	03-05 05:04
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	24	$8.0K	7,143	7,143	+0	No	+$5,389	05-21 17:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$7.8K	14,200	14,200	+0	Yes	+$101	03-02 06:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	9	$7.6K	12,528	12,528	+0	No	+$330	05-14 08:49
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	16	$7.6K	7,300	8,365	-1,065	Yes	+$3,637	02-01 05:30
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	45	$6.7K	30,088	26,923	+3,166	Yes	-$3,207	04-30 01:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	9	$6.1K	3,677	3,677	+0	No	+$616	04-29 05:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	19	$5.8K	5,660	5,660	+0	No	+$881	05-26 16:46
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	2	$5.6K	3,248	3,248	+0	No	+$51	02-15 05:29
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	26	$5.6K	5,020	4,447	+572	Yes	+$1	03-07 01:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	7	$5.5K	5,348	3,547	+1,802	No	+$48	05-12 05:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	12	$5.4K	3,897	3,897	-0	No	+$107	06-26 20:52
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	18	$5.1K	17,458	6,696	+10,762	No	+$3,901	06-01 03:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:05:18	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0xe923d3…
10-27 09:04:59	Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	24	1¢	$0	0xeb6c83…
10-27 09:04:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x3a4e3f…
10-27 09:04:00	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x39dcab…
10-27 09:03:57	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xcc7797…
10-27 09:03:53	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	SELL	1	58¢	$0	0x87cbcb…
10-27 09:03:48	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x187cd1…
10-27 09:03:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0x807672…
10-27 09:03:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x082e07…
10-27 08:58:14	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	115	9¢	$11	0x9161fc…
10-27 08:57:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	300	9¢	$26	0x16d353…
10-27 00:49:20	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	369	12¢	$44	0xbe1021…
10-26 22:47:15	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	27	20¢	$5	0xc070fb…
10-26 22:46:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xbd6b1b…
10-26 22:42:18	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x9f6d25…
10-26 22:42:14	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd18506…
10-26 22:42:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0x29594a…
10-26 22:42:05	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x9b47c7…
10-26 22:42:00	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xb40f7f…
10-26 22:41:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	22	85¢	$19	0xc2ba23…
10-26 22:41:24	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	10¢	$15	0x77cd4f…
10-26 22:36:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xafcb8a…
10-26 22:32:29	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	1,682	14¢	$234	0x14ba1c…
10-26 22:29:17	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	358	12¢	$41	0x0cad95…
10-26 22:28:56	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?	No	BUY	48	11¢	$5	0x14a013…
10-26 22:28:24	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	84	43¢	$36	0x3f648d…
10-26 18:48:23	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x0d558d…
10-26 18:32:39	Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xec662e…
10-26 18:25:33	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x833761…
10-26 18:12:11	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	17	32¢	$5	0xf2d83a…
10-26 18:12:11	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x5f147a…
10-26 18:11:53	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xc3ac22…
10-26 18:02:24	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0xd14524…
10-26 17:58:53	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x5eacab…
10-26 17:55:24	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xff09e3…
10-26 17:52:11	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x1de499…
10-26 17:52:08	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x5b7be7…
10-26 17:48:54	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xb54f46…
10-26 17:44:14	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x90c8ee…
10-26 17:20:47	Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xb99401…
10-26 17:11:41	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x770e5b…
10-26 17:01:06	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x363ebe…
10-26 15:41:44	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xb62610…
10-26 15:35:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0x5fd82f…
10-26 14:28:54	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0xaeb414…
10-26 13:54:05	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xd96465…
10-26 13:39:44	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0xdb8b38…
10-26 13:39:05	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x0d9c19…
10-26 13:25:57	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x24be6a…
10-26 13:25:47	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0xc4f4dc…
10-26 13:12:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x3c7fcb…
10-26 13:10:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x20f853…
10-26 13:10:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	51¢	$19	0x02ef21…
10-26 13:10:17	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xc1f353…
10-26 13:09:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x5ba15a…
10-26 13:09:30	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xc42cf0…
10-26 12:59:32	Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xbb228b…
10-26 12:58:15	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xac5cd5…
10-26 12:33:14	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xfcab86…
10-26 12:28:36	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x96a2f2…
10-26 12:28:36	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x5d5499…
10-26 12:28:27	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x949766…
10-26 12:27:03	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x2bfeb6…
10-26 11:24:21	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x7c5479…
10-26 11:20:54	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xe8ccb8…
10-26 10:45:18	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x7ff3cf…
10-26 10:39:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe26e07…
10-26 10:39:00	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xde6384…
10-26 08:23:15	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x4b2434…
10-26 07:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 28?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xec3619…
10-26 06:47:00	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 28?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe5847d…
10-26 06:30:12	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xf033cc…
10-26 05:39:03	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x078c2a…
10-26 05:05:47	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	No	BUY	9	77¢	$7	0xd4a261…
10-26 04:55:21	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x6cedf8…
10-26 04:30:26	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xadea3b…
10-26 03:35:48	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x0c781d…
10-26 03:22:24	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x9276d1…
10-26 03:06:12	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37	20¢	$7	0x54f298…
10-26 03:05:00	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd9d073…
10-26 02:59:51	Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x2aa287…
10-26 02:50:57	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x1632dc…
10-26 02:46:44	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x251c91…
10-26 02:42:06	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x2eb77b…
10-26 02:41:09	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x9663e3…
10-26 02:14:33	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0x83e7f4…
10-26 02:14:33	Will Rodri finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	6	42¢	$2	0x2e276c…
10-26 02:08:21	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x8dd7e4…
10-26 01:16:11	Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x0f57c4…
10-26 00:41:17	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	34	8¢	$3	0xdf8b1d…
10-26 00:41:15	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0xc580cd…
10-26 00:34:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x13476d…
10-25 23:22:38	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x0e7473…
10-25 22:46:35	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc0b5d1…
10-25 22:29:00	Will Will Anderson Jr. win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x95aaa1…
10-25 22:28:50	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x58a16e…
10-25 22:24:08	Will With Tapes and Toasts in the Car win Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x7b33f6…
10-25 22:24:05	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xb75b98…
10-25 22:23:56	Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	54	7¢	$4	0xb8d650…
10-25 22:23:56	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x456b76…