(anonymous) 0xea2de3…79d8ba Create alert
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Realized P&L (24h)
+$1
Unrealized P&L
+$48
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved (24h)
1
Trades (24h)
0
465 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$0
$8.18K lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$20
27 positions
First seen
2026-09-08
last 11-01 22:44
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Politics
60% 56% -$126
Other
37% 58% -$17
Tech
3% 0% -$55
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +13 $10 90¢ $12 +$2 11-01 22:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1 $1 88¢ $1 $0 11-01 21:39
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 $0 10-02 10:31
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1 $2 99¢ $1 -$1 11-01 21:36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +1 $2 97¢ $1 -$2 11-01 22:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +1 $3 92¢ $1 -$2 11-01 22:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1 $2 76¢ $1 -$2 10-29 15:08
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +0 -$34 97¢ $0 +$35 11-01 22:42
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +0 $1 92¢ $0 $0 10-03 22:09
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? No +0 $0 93¢ $0 +$0 09-22 18:14
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +0 $1 96¢ $0 -$1 09-24 17:53
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1 -$1 55¢ $0 +$1 10-25 17:54
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +0 -$5 98¢ $0 +$5 11-01 22:42
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +0 $1 68¢ $0 -$1 09-24 15:44
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +0 -$1 99¢ $0 +$1 11-01 22:42
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 $0 09-20 22:27
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1 -$1 15¢ $0 +$2 11-01 22:41
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 -$8 12¢ $0 +$9 10-23 15:18
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 -$1 97¢ $0 +$1 11-01 22:43
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1 $2 14¢ $0 -$1 10-21 10:00
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +0 -$7 58¢ $0 +$7 11-01 22:43
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +0 -$3 9¢ $0 +$3 10-09 19:01
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +0 $0 6¢ $0 +$0 11-01 21:38
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +0 $1 11¢ $0 -$1 11-01 21:40
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $3 3¢ $0 -$3 11-01 22:41
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +0 $0 10¢ $0 +$0 10-08 23:40
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +0 $2 2¢ $0 -$2 11-01 22:43