Large-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$135

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

375

Trades

727

lifetime

Volume

$6.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-03 10:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Politics

60% 73% +$127

Other

37% 86% +$13

Crypto

1% 67% -$4

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 60% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-03).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No		+12	$11	96¢	$12	+$1	06-01 12:29
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		-47	-$5	4¢	$-2	+$3	06-03 10:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$331	166	166	+0	No	+$0	04-26 21:06
lal ovi vil 2026 04 23 vil	6	$320	247	245	+3	No	+$5	04-23 20:47
will jd vance visit pakistan by april 23	2	$291	147	147	+0	No	+$2	04-23 16:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$291	146	146	+0	No	+$0	04-22 21:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	11	$262	140	140	+0	No	+$7	06-03 10:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$210	223	0	+223	No	+$13	05-05 13:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	4	$196	201	0	+201	No	+$5	05-11 12:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$196	237	0	+237	No	+$41	05-30 10:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$191	226	0	+226	No	+$35	05-25 20:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$165	163	2	+161	No	+$1	04-29 06:54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	1	$161	161	0	+161	No	+$0	04-28 06:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	2	$159	161	0	+161	No	+$1	04-27 16:22
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	1	$151	153	0	+153	No	+$2	04-23 21:08
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	1	$144	145	0	+145	No	+$1	04-21 17:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 20 2026	1	$138	143	0	+143	No	+$6	04-20 10:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	6	$137	139	0	+139	No	+$1	05-12 20:01
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	4	$131	67	67	+0	No	+$1	06-03 10:49
jos lus rodrguez zapatero arrested by march 31	19	$112	122	0	+122	No	+$10	03-16 20:08
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?	2	$103	104	0	+104	No	+$0	05-07 06:35
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-06 11:51
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	9	$96	50	50	+0	No	+$1	05-23 16:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	6	$91	91	1	+90	No	+$1	05-14 08:52
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	1	$90	94	0	+94	No	+$3	04-11 01:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$85	80	5	+75	No	+$0	06-01 12:48
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	1	$73	73	0	+73	No	+$0	05-06 13:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	12	$66	68	0	+68	No	+$3	05-21 10:10
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	5	$65	35	30	+5	No	+$0	05-27 08:19
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	3	$63	1	69	-68	No	-$7	06-03 10:52
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?	2	$62	62	0	+62	Yes	+$0	05-17 18:53
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	2	$61	63	0	+63	No	+$1	05-07 06:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 10:54:05	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	57	10¢	$6	0x3355ee…
06-03 10:54:03	Spain snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xeeb998…
06-03 10:53:59	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x127822…
06-03 10:53:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xb44c02…
06-03 10:53:56	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x5c3bc4…
06-03 10:53:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x8d46d5…
06-03 10:53:51	Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in June?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xcdb360…
06-03 10:53:49	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	19	91¢	$18	0x54d86d…
06-03 10:53:47	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd5792f…
06-03 10:53:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xad9e5b…
06-03 10:53:42	Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xf46721…
06-03 10:53:40	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbc25bb…
06-03 10:53:40	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9c4050…
06-03 10:53:37	Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x8b5ada…
06-03 10:53:35	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8654d6…
06-03 10:53:33	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7d0b33…
06-03 10:53:31	Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x209168…
06-03 10:53:30	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x461da4…
06-03 10:53:28	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in May?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xe21eff…
06-03 10:53:24	Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x375957…
06-03 10:53:23	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbe78ba…
06-03 10:53:21	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x52f6db…
06-03 10:53:19	Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb35757…
06-03 10:53:17	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x521b1d…
06-03 10:53:16	Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x9207de…
06-03 10:53:14	Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc48ce2…
06-03 10:53:12	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4ea58e…
06-03 10:53:09	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x711367…
06-03 10:53:07	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x193eec…
06-03 10:53:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x69da7c…
06-03 10:53:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd191d5…
06-03 10:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x44c721…
06-03 10:52:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xdde54c…
06-03 10:52:55	Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x8f786f…
06-03 10:52:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xaf6782…
06-03 10:52:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x472ffa…
06-03 10:52:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xee9a78…
06-03 10:52:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x756ad7…
06-03 10:52:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6372bf…
06-03 10:52:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xdc4c75…
06-03 10:52:35	Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x21d139…
06-03 10:52:32	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x19d920…
06-03 10:52:28	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6d39b1…
06-03 10:52:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xf6ee7d…
06-03 10:52:23	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x3e8859…
06-03 10:52:20	Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2b124b…
06-03 10:52:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	140	97¢	$135	0xbe14be…
06-03 10:52:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	88¢	$11	0xe318e1…
06-03 10:51:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0x0bd9d5…
06-03 10:51:27	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x9df34c…
06-03 10:49:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	SELL	67	98¢	$66	0x12e4c0…
06-03 10:49:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x644e05…
06-03 10:49:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb0f87d…
06-03 06:59:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x6db84b…
06-03 06:59:35	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x180406…
06-03 06:59:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbb7a28…
06-03 06:59:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf919c7…
06-03 06:59:05	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf179a4…
06-03 06:59:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7e8930…
06-02 20:08:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x35cd41…
06-02 19:14:46	Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0a3d16…
06-02 19:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d9fa6…
06-02 19:14:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd0d0b8…
06-02 19:13:32	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x6b9cd8…
06-02 19:13:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xab0157…
06-02 19:13:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa62530…
06-02 19:13:06	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1bb5d4…
06-02 09:52:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 2?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x5390f0…
06-02 08:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb5cb37…
06-02 07:59:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x920a5a…
06-02 07:59:28	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 2?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x2ad7ff…
06-02 06:38:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x6dfde3…
06-02 06:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xbfb659…
06-02 06:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe5e54a…
06-02 06:37:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x30a68d…
06-02 06:37:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95b6be…
06-02 06:37:15	Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in June?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa736cf…
06-02 06:33:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe342ee…
06-02 06:33:34	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xecb9e0…
06-01 19:31:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x6d960d…
06-01 19:30:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcd7e4c…
06-01 15:56:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1cc67f…
06-01 12:51:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x520ed4…
06-01 12:49:05	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc4d5b3…
06-01 12:48:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xfa082c…
06-01 12:47:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf40f8c…
06-01 12:46:45	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb3e70d…
06-01 12:46:41	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9bccf4…
06-01 12:46:18	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x253283…
06-01 12:45:49	Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x63df49…
06-01 12:45:33	Will Trump say "Goat" in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x70a265…
06-01 12:45:28	Will Trump say "Hawk" in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb5ac09…
06-01 12:45:17	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5875a9…
06-01 12:45:08	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2c885a…
06-01 12:44:02	Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9f0cd9…
06-01 12:41:17	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7859f3…
06-01 12:40:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7017c9…
06-01 12:38:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	53	94¢	$50	0x2e8e58…
06-01 12:38:35	wti closes above 84 on june 1 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9be2ca…
06-01 12:38:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xf5a2e6…