Best-Vintner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$175

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

1.5%

Resolved

132

Trades

394

lifetime

Volume

$61.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$156

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 05-25 03:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Other

96% 28% -$96

Politics

2% 20% -$70

Sports

1% 13% -$8

Tech

0% 44% +$1

Crypto

0% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-25).

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$42.0K	21,084	21,084	+0	No	-$21	03-30 15:54
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	5	$15.6K	7,844	7,844	+0	No	-$7	05-18 12:22
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?	5	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:38
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$66	70	70	+0	No	-$2	05-21 20:42
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	5	$66	78	78	+0	open	—	05-21 20:39
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	5	$66	36	36	+0	Yes	$0	05-21 20:37
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	6	$64	114	114	+0	No	-$4	05-21 20:42
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	4	$55	37	24	+12	No	+$1	05-18 05:46
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	4	$47	43	43	+0	open	—	05-21 20:36
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	3	$47	146	146	+0	No	+$5	03-30 15:55
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$46	34	34	+0	Yes	+$2	05-21 20:36
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 29 2026 526	4	$45	57	57	+0	Yes	-$1	03-30 15:56
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	4	$45	34	34	+0	open	—	05-21 20:37
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$44	58	58	+0	open	—	05-21 20:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$44	31	31	+0	open	—	05-21 20:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	4	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	05-21 20:38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	4	$44	23	23	+0	Yes	+$0	05-21 20:37
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	4	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	05-21 20:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$44	23	23	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:38
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:38
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	4	$44	22	22	+0	No	+$0	05-21 20:39
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	4	$44	29	29	+0	Yes	+$0	05-21 20:39
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	4	$44	22	22	+0	No	$0	05-21 20:40
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$44	27	27	+0	open	—	05-21 20:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$44	23	23	+0	No	$0	05-21 20:38
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$44	48	48	+0	No	$0	05-21 20:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	4	$44	23	23	+0	No	$0	05-21 20:39
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$44	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-21 20:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 03:51:19	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0x2af311…
05-25 03:50:51	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x559f6f…
05-21 20:44:32	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa5b695…
05-21 20:42:31	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x1735e3…
05-21 20:42:26	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	44¢	$9	0x365902…
05-21 20:42:19	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	27	31¢	$8	0x75125b…
05-21 20:42:14	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x268294…
05-21 20:42:08	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	8¢	$9	0xdb702d…
05-21 20:42:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	53¢	$9	0x499699…
05-21 20:41:58	Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0xd163d6…
05-21 20:41:53	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	16	60¢	$9	0xce9a69…
05-21 20:41:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	80¢	$9	0x164c81…
05-21 20:41:40	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x19d975…
05-21 20:41:35	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x1c6057…
05-21 20:41:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0xa3045b…
05-21 20:41:25	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28	37¢	$10	0x78eb03…
05-21 20:41:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	18	57¢	$10	0x838604…
05-21 20:41:14	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	44¢	$11	0xa0f035…
05-21 20:41:09	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	SELL	14	76¢	$11	0xd3bb85…
05-21 20:41:04	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	SELL	31	35¢	$11	0x52d4ee…
05-21 20:40:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x9d34d8…
05-21 20:40:51	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xad686d…
05-21 20:40:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$11	0xa519ba…
05-21 20:40:39	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0x133cb7…
05-21 20:40:34	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	15	74¢	$11	0xdc86dc…
05-21 20:40:29	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0x5205d8…
05-21 20:40:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xa6d101…
05-21 20:40:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xd27c8b…
05-21 20:39:59	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0xa35044…
05-21 20:39:54	Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	Yes	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xc16491…
05-21 20:39:48	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x0a4ab8…
05-21 20:39:43	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x219de8…
05-21 20:39:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x34ea9e…
05-21 20:39:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xe539bd…
05-21 20:39:26	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0xdccf58…
05-21 20:39:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xbea5cc…
05-21 20:39:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	13	83¢	$11	0xc7e098…
05-21 20:39:10	Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0xb3e2dd…
05-21 20:39:05	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0x741c2e…
05-21 20:38:58	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0xf804b3…
05-21 20:38:51	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1a5a41…
05-21 20:38:40	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xde0ec9…
05-21 20:38:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1c487e…
05-21 20:38:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xc94997…
05-21 20:38:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xe2292f…
05-21 20:38:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	24	45¢	$11	0xf8fcb2…
05-21 20:38:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0x79a9f0…
05-21 20:38:05	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xc5576f…
05-21 20:38:00	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	48	23¢	$11	0xe6db71…
05-21 20:37:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x43f339…
05-21 20:37:46	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	14	80¢	$11	0x404706…
05-21 20:37:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0x123ddb…
05-21 20:37:34	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	29	39¢	$11	0xad41b3…
05-21 20:37:28	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	67¢	$11	0x6c2577…
05-21 20:37:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xceb706…
05-21 20:37:16	Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x1c0625…
05-21 20:37:11	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	69¢	$12	0x8c2901…
05-21 20:37:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	16	74¢	$12	0x1da2ba…
05-21 20:36:59	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0x7aa0f7…
05-21 20:36:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	83¢	$13	0x9217f2…
05-21 20:36:38	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0x5aa45d…
05-21 20:36:29	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0xe4690c…
05-21 20:36:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	241	6¢	$15	0xfd0f16…
05-18 12:22:28	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	6,838	100¢	$6,804	0xd07e3b…
05-18 06:24:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6,827	100¢	$6,800	0x6fc64e…
05-18 06:19:31	Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xd82667…
05-18 06:19:15	Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0xea3aec…
05-18 06:19:01	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0xf5b51a…
05-18 06:18:45	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x6f738c…
05-18 06:18:28	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	27	40¢	$11	0x575415…
05-18 06:18:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	73¢	$11	0x738743…
05-18 06:17:58	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xae6837…
05-18 06:17:39	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x62ec1a…
05-18 06:16:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	5¢	$11	0x43de8c…
05-18 06:16:45	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x9d8b76…
05-18 06:16:32	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	10¢	$11	0x3356e6…
05-18 06:15:29	Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0xc07249…
05-18 06:15:05	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0x7b3366…
05-18 06:14:28	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	BUY	11,000	0¢	$11	0x3d2b88…
05-18 06:13:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11,000	0¢	$11	0x8edf7a…
05-18 06:13:11	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x6bc474…
05-18 06:12:54	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	32	34¢	$11	0xe3a2aa…
05-18 06:12:31	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x63f8d3…
05-18 06:12:19	Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	46¢	$11	0x0b6460…
05-18 06:12:06	LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	KT Rolster	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xc1c889…
05-18 06:11:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xf58bc7…
05-18 06:11:33	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xad6eea…
05-18 06:11:21	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xb325bb…
05-18 06:10:04	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x174e08…
05-18 06:09:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x30b6a8…
05-18 06:09:25	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe48bef…
05-18 06:08:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x8f1492…
05-18 06:08:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x65a1bb…
05-18 06:07:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xfa6a2c…
05-18 06:07:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x7fa10a…
05-18 06:07:11	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x5f4ba5…
05-18 06:06:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x63b2ec…
05-18 06:06:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x1ae356…
05-18 06:06:15	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x8a7eea…
05-18 06:05:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x7389a5…