Realized P&L
+$2.07K
Unrealized P&L
+$918
Hit rate
62.6%
Resolved
258
Trades
9,428
lifetime
Volume
$424.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$45
Open exposure
$6.81K
14 positions
First seen
2026-01-26
last 10-31 05:25
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 101 days
Categories
Politics
67% 49% +$2,983
Other
27% 53% -$486
Crypto
6% 55% +$95
Tech
1% 17% -$526
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
64 active days in 12wk • peak 130 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,307 $1,890 46¢ $2.5K +$578 10-22 12:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,799 $1,574 84¢ $1.5K -$54 10-22 12:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,662 $904 16¢ $934 +$30 10-22 20:59
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +810 $641 98¢ $790 +$150 09-23 18:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,203 $272 29¢ $343 +$71 10-15 18:32
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +383 $66 44¢ $171 +$104 10-26 13:37
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +365 $135 44¢ $159 +$24 10-07 19:23
will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2026 No +154 $139 98¢ $151 +$12 09-30 12:18
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +492 $134 28¢ $135 +$1 09-27 14:40
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +849 $125 14¢ $119 -$6 10-11 17:29
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +479 $56 3¢ $14 -$42 09-15 18:39
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -236 -$20 1¢ $-2 +$18 08-07 15:10
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +1 -$27 98¢ $1 +$28 10-26 07:58
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? No +0 -$6 32¢ $0 +$6 10-22 10:00