Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$379
$112 in 24h
Trades
135
Unique wallets
19
Liquidity
$26
Latest YES mid
49¢
Latest NO mid
51¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-04
last 07-21 00:06
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $0 | $12 | $12 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $2 | $1 | +$1 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $170 | $21 | +$149 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $1 | $5 | $4 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
| Median | 2 | — | $6 | $6 |
| Below median | 4 | $3 | $5 | $2 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $0 | $6 | $6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $3 | $3 |
| unranked | 7 | $163 | $10 | +$154 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | +15 | $-14 | $20 | 10 | 07-19 19:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x4161…2191 | Yes | +12 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-21 00:06 |
| Darling-Jazz 0x9dc5…89a3 | No | +12 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-06 15:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 23:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-07 13:27 |
| Imperturbable-Knife 0xb387…a0a8 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-19 23:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x6f99…abc7 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-24 03:58 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-19 23:21 |
| Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | No | +3 | $3 | $9 | 2 | 07-06 15:33 |
| Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 21:39 |
| Bulky-Input 0x79f7…d24a | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | +2 | $-8 | $13 | 4 | 07-19 19:38 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 00:06:10 | (anonymous) 0x4161…2191 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x891176… |
| 07-21 00:06:10 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x891176… |
| 07-19 23:21:30 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0x3fb982… |
| 07-19 23:21:30 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 72¢ | $3 | 0x3fb982… |
| 07-19 23:11:52 | Imperturbable-Knife 0xb387…a0a8 | No | BUY | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0xbe52a3… |
| 07-19 23:11:52 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 28¢ | $2 | 0xbe52a3… |
| 07-19 19:38:34 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | SELL | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x2cb22b… |
| 07-19 19:38:34 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | SELL | 5 | 28¢ | $1 | 0x2cb22b… |
| 07-07 23:36:16 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x2da059… |
| 07-07 23:36:16 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x2da059… |
| 07-07 13:37:56 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x0689cc… |
| 07-07 13:37:56 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x0689cc… |
| 07-07 13:37:56 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x0689cc… |
| 07-07 13:37:34 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | BUY | 7 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xc554ef… |
| 07-07 13:37:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 7 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xc554ef… |
| 07-07 13:37:34 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 15 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xc554ef… |
| 07-07 13:37:02 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xf0e55e… |
| 07-07 13:37:02 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xf0e55e… |
| 07-07 13:36:53 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | SELL | 8 | 94¢ | $7 | 0x20be34… |
| 07-07 13:36:53 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | BUY | 2 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x20be34… |
| 07-07 13:36:53 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x20be34… |
| 07-07 13:27:52 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0x320002… |
| 07-07 13:27:52 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 7 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x320002… |
| 07-07 13:27:52 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | SELL | 5 | 81¢ | $4 | 0x320002… |
| 07-07 13:27:26 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0x7f653e… |
| 07-07 13:27:26 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | SELL | 12 | 81¢ | $10 | 0x7f653e… |
| 07-07 13:22:34 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | SELL | 0 | 81¢ | $0 | 0xdf3003… |
| 07-07 13:22:34 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | BUY | 13 | 19¢ | $3 | 0xdf3003… |
| 07-07 13:22:34 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xdf3003… |
| 07-07 13:22:34 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | No | BUY | 6 | 19¢ | $1 | 0xdf3003… |
| 07-07 08:11:29 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 26 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x9d881d… |
| 07-07 08:11:29 | Greedy-Uniform 0x26b7…68a2 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0x9d881d… |
| 07-07 08:11:29 | (anonymous) 0x8d0c…e1ce | Yes | BUY | 18 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x9d881d… |
| 07-07 07:59:40 | Greedy-Uniform 0x26b7…68a2 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0xeba6e3… |
| 07-07 07:59:40 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 2 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xeba6e3… |
| 07-06 16:41:28 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x7d3d12… |
| 07-06 16:41:28 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x7d3d12… |
| 07-06 15:34:22 | Crowded-Acceptance 0xa34d…b57f | No | SELL | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x261c57… |
| 07-06 15:34:22 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x261c57… |
| 07-06 15:34:22 | Darling-Jazz 0x9dc5…89a3 | No | BUY | 6 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x1f57d9… |
| 07-06 15:34:22 | Crowded-Acceptance 0xa34d…b57f | No | SELL | 6 | 51¢ | $3 | 0x1f57d9… |
| 07-06 15:33:52 | Darling-Jazz 0x9dc5…89a3 | No | BUY | 6 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x40d5a0… |
| 07-06 15:33:52 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | No | SELL | 6 | 52¢ | $3 | 0x40d5a0… |
| 07-06 14:03:38 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x2a483b… |
| 07-06 14:03:38 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x2a483b… |
| 07-06 14:03:37 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x0e3452… |
| 07-06 14:03:37 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x0e3452… |
| 07-06 14:03:25 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x6d8b22… |
| 07-06 14:03:25 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x6d8b22… |
| 07-06 13:48:28 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x622d3f… |
| 07-06 13:48:28 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x622d3f… |
| 07-06 13:44:38 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x50aa4d… |
| 07-06 13:44:38 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x50aa4d… |
| 07-06 13:44:37 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x341cc6… |
| 07-06 13:44:37 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0xd25649… |
| 07-06 13:44:37 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x341cc6… |
| 07-06 13:44:37 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0xd25649… |
| 07-06 13:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x422d37… |
| 07-06 13:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x422d37… |
| 07-06 13:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x228f9a… |
| 07-06 13:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x228f9a… |
| 07-06 13:28:20 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x5884da… |
| 07-06 13:28:20 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x5884da… |
| 07-06 13:28:05 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 11 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xbb6a8c… |
| 07-06 13:28:05 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 11 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xbb6a8c… |
| 07-06 13:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x1f5cba… |
| 07-06 13:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x1f5cba… |
| 07-06 13:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xd0698b… |
| 07-06 13:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xd0698b… |
| 07-06 13:27:41 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x4594fa… |
| 07-06 13:27:41 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x4594fa… |
| 07-06 13:27:34 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 14 | 33¢ | $5 | 0x97b1a1… |
| 07-06 13:27:34 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 14 | 33¢ | $5 | 0x97b1a1… |
| 07-06 13:27:19 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x897d3a… |
| 07-06 13:27:19 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x897d3a… |
| 07-06 13:26:53 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 12 | 34¢ | $4 | 0x8c18e8… |
| 07-06 13:26:53 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 12 | 34¢ | $4 | 0x8c18e8… |
| 07-06 13:26:49 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 14 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x118dd0… |
| 07-06 13:26:49 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 14 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x118dd0… |
| 07-06 13:26:37 | Crowded-Acceptance 0xa34d…b57f | No | BUY | 7 | 67¢ | $5 | 0x37ecba… |
| 07-06 13:26:37 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 16 | 67¢ | $11 | 0x37ecba… |
| 07-06 13:26:37 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | No | BUY | 9 | 67¢ | $6 | 0x37ecba… |
| 07-06 13:26:16 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x7c9913… |
| 07-06 13:26:16 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x7c9913… |
| 07-06 13:26:11 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 11 | 33¢ | $4 | 0xbe4761… |
| 07-06 13:26:11 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 11 | 33¢ | $4 | 0xbe4761… |
| 07-06 13:26:07 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 11 | 34¢ | $4 | 0x74d218… |
| 07-06 13:26:07 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 11 | 34¢ | $4 | 0x74d218… |
| 07-06 13:26:04 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xf2d863… |
| 07-06 13:26:04 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 13 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xf2d863… |
| 07-06 13:25:58 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 12 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x23a9b4… |
| 07-06 13:25:58 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 12 | 32¢ | $4 | 0x23a9b4… |
| 07-06 13:25:53 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xb9a9c4… |
| 07-06 13:25:53 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xb9a9c4… |
| 07-06 13:25:49 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x61f15d… |
| 07-06 13:25:49 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | BUY | 9 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x61f15d… |
| 07-06 13:25:37 | (anonymous) 0x3676…19fe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x8a8454… |
| 07-06 13:25:37 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 0 | 66¢ | $0 | 0x8a8454… |
| 07-06 13:25:07 | (anonymous) 0x4b01…fb2b | Yes | SELL | 0 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x19902e… |
| 07-06 13:25:07 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | No | SELL | 0 | 67¢ | $0 | 0x19902e… |