Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,179
Trades
49
Unique wallets
21
Liquidity
$3,647
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-30 16:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 3 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $0 | $340 | $340 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $1 | $11 | $10 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $1 | $285 | $284 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 2 | — | $103 | $103 |
| Below median | 3 | $1 | $3 | $2 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $1 | $14 | $13 |
| unranked | 11 | $2 | $517 | $515 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +303 | $291 | $291 | 1 | 07-15 21:27 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +96 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 21:38 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | +57 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-30 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xa7f9…e20e | No | +57 | $57 | $57 | 2 | 07-30 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x7ce4…bb27 | No | +55 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 07-21 21:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x6830…3b64 | No | +53 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-30 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x9992…69ef | No | +41 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 07-21 21:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x0977…900e | No | +31 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 07-03 19:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x02f7…dd8f | No | +11 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 05-28 22:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 16:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xa7f9…e20e | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0x963800… |
| 07-30 16:10:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x963800… |
| 07-30 16:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x6830…3b64 | No | BUY | 53 | 100¢ | $53 | 0x963800… |
| 07-30 08:31:27 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | Yes | SELL | 10 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x4b9e31… |
| 07-30 08:31:27 | (anonymous) 0xa7f9…e20e | No | BUY | 53 | 99¢ | $53 | 0x4b9e31… |
| 07-30 08:31:27 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | SELL | 63 | 100¢ | $63 | 0x4b9e31… |
| 07-21 21:38:00 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 96 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x8508f2… |
| 07-21 21:38:00 | (anonymous) 0x7ce4…bb27 | No | BUY | 55 | 99¢ | $54 | 0x8508f2… |
| 07-21 21:38:00 | (anonymous) 0x9992…69ef | No | BUY | 41 | 99¢ | $41 | 0x8508f2… |
| 07-15 21:27:07 | (anonymous) 0xff32…dc40 | No | SELL | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x771674… |
| 07-15 21:27:07 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 303 | 96¢ | $291 | 0x771674… |
| 07-15 21:27:07 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 252 | 96¢ | $242 | 0x771674… |
| 07-03 19:04:05 | (anonymous) 0x0977…900e | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x77376d… |
| 07-03 19:04:05 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x77376d… |
| 06-29 20:06:34 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb8c190… |
| 06-29 20:06:34 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 26 | 96¢ | $25 | 0xb8c190… |
| 06-29 20:06:08 | (anonymous) 0x0977…900e | No | BUY | 26 | 95¢ | $25 | 0xb58298… |
| 06-29 20:06:08 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb58298… |
| 06-25 14:51:20 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x9a65d6… |
| 06-25 14:51:20 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x9a65d6… |
| 06-25 08:42:22 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x269ad0… |
| 06-25 08:42:22 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x269ad0… |
| 06-22 17:02:53 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x57a364… |
| 06-22 17:02:53 | (anonymous) 0xff32…dc40 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x57a364… |
| 06-22 17:01:50 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xd1485e… |
| 06-22 17:01:50 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xd1485e… |
| 06-20 09:41:01 | (anonymous) 0xff32…dc40 | No | BUY | 49 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x808ad2… |
| 06-20 09:41:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 49 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x808ad2… |
| 06-12 03:56:13 | (anonymous) 0xff32…dc40 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb61f03… |
| 06-12 03:56:13 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb61f03… |
| 06-09 06:47:36 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x66b0fc… |
| 06-09 06:47:36 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 29 | 95¢ | $27 | 0x66b0fc… |
| 06-09 06:47:36 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x66b0fc… |
| 06-08 07:50:28 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xc370c9… |
| 06-08 07:50:28 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xc370c9… |
| 06-08 00:50:34 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe5d651… |
| 06-08 00:50:34 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe5d651… |
| 06-08 00:47:54 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xb765af… |
| 06-08 00:47:54 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xb765af… |
| 06-07 12:47:36 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x196892… |
| 06-07 12:47:36 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x196892… |
| 06-07 12:45:34 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xd7faaf… |
| 06-07 12:45:34 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xd7faaf… |
| 06-07 00:45:31 | Twin-Detention 0x7f82…c446 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x844ef0… |
| 06-07 00:45:31 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x844ef0… |
| 05-28 22:44:39 | (anonymous) 0x69a8…97bd | No | SELL | 11 | 93¢ | $11 | 0xf55b47… |
| 05-28 22:44:39 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0xf55b47… |
| 05-28 22:44:25 | (anonymous) 0x02f7…dd8f | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $11 | 0xf949f4… |
| 05-28 22:44:25 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $11 | 0xf949f4… |