Sophisticated-Farmer-Watercress — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.74K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.73K

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

136

Trades

1,031

lifetime

Volume

$559.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$543

Open exposure

$60.0K

23 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 11-02 14:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Politics

52% 94% -$2,872

Other

47% 94% +$2,832

Tech

0% 0% -$1,700

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (23) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+17,566	$16,360	96¢	$16.8K	+$416	11-01 01:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+7,610	$7,286	97¢	$7.4K	+$118	11-02 14:24
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+6,620	$6,229	96¢	$6.3K	+$92	11-02 14:23
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+6,027	$5,784	98¢	$5.9K	+$113	11-01 12:57
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,378	$4,168	97¢	$4.2K	+$68	11-02 04:57
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+3,226	$3,000	92¢	$3.0K	-$16	11-01 12:49
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+2,582	$2,420	96¢	$2.5K	+$50	10-06 14:35
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+2,535	$2,425	97¢	$2.5K	+$26	09-05 23:34
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+2,397	$2,160	96¢	$2.3K	+$153	11-01 01:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+2,128	$2,000	100¢	$2.1K	+$123	10-01 14:20
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+2,174	$1,961	92¢	$2.0K	+$28	11-02 14:34
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	+1,358	$1,300	97¢	$1.3K	+$20	07-21 16:37
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,408	$1,000	76¢	$1.1K	+$63	11-01 04:24
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+1,111	$989	96¢	$1.1K	+$72	09-20 00:33
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+1,369	$863	78¢	$1.1K	+$199	09-29 15:13
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+685	$500	72¢	$497	-$3	11-01 04:27
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	+400	$96	13¢	$52	-$44	08-19 02:41
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+0	-$8	96¢	$0	+$8	10-10 21:39
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	+0	-$33	98¢	$0	+$33	09-03 14:48
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+0	-$39	96¢	$0	+$39	11-01 15:41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+0	$0	93¢	$0	$0	10-19 12:56
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+0	$0	88¢	$0	$0	10-12 10:15
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$170	99¢	$0	+$170	10-30 23:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	15	$31.2K	18,351	18,351	+0	open	—	10-20 14:41
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	10	$26.1K	13,696	13,696	+0	open	—	10-09 18:54
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	74	$17.7K	12,133	6,106	+6,027	open	—	11-01 12:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	11	$17.2K	8,644	8,644	+0	No	+$62	08-02 01:05
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	12	$16.4K	17,566	0	+17,566	open	—	11-01 01:38
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	22	$15.0K	15,351	0	+15,351	No	+$359	07-27 01:49
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	15	$14.1K	7,137	7,137	+0	No	+$19	08-18 14:45
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	13	$12.6K	9,978	3,358	+6,620	open	—	11-02 14:23
iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	26	$11.5K	5,772	5,772	+0	No	+$67	07-31 16:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	11	$10.3K	10,634	0	+10,634	No	+$336	09-03 13:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	8	$10.2K	9,660	1,000	+8,660	No	+$492	08-29 12:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	6	$10.0K	5,319	5,319	+0	open	—	10-19 12:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	20	$9.8K	8,059	2,015	+6,045	No	+$219	06-13 16:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	26	$9.8K	6,892	3,015	+3,877	No	+$138	09-29 15:17
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	22	$9.6K	5,084	5,084	+0	open	—	11-01 15:41
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	8	$9.4K	4,878	4,878	+0	open	—	10-09 18:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	20	$9.2K	9,363	0	+9,363	No	+$163	06-17 17:01
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	32	$8.7K	4,579	4,579	+0	open	—	10-30 23:43
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	22	$8.0K	5,514	3,340	+2,174	open	—	11-02 14:34
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	4	$7.9K	4,035	4,035	+0	No	+$28	08-06 08:57
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	6	$7.3K	7,610	0	+7,610	open	—	11-02 14:24
israel closes its airspace by august 15	7	$7.0K	7,310	0	+7,310	No	+$301	08-11 03:43
iran full airspace closure by august 15	7	$6.9K	7,103	0	+7,103	No	+$188	08-12 23:27
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	9	$6.7K	3,551	3,551	+0	No	+$100	06-13 16:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	5	$6.6K	3,352	3,352	+0	open	—	11-02 14:24
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	10	$6.6K	3,923	2,942	+981	No	+$52	08-21 21:01
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	11	$6.4K	6,545	0	+6,545	No	+$178	08-09 02:18
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	10	$6.3K	6,565	0	+6,565	No	+$282	08-31 23:01
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	5	$5.5K	6,919	0	+6,919	Yes	-$5,500	09-06 02:45
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	6	$5.5K	3,209	3,209	+0	open	—	09-20 16:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 14:34:52	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	2,174	92¢	$2,000	0xa23098…
11-02 14:24:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	3,084	97¢	$3,000	0x440aee…
11-02 14:24:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	3,352	100¢	$3,348	0xa2b260…
11-02 14:23:58	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2,083	96¢	$2,000	0xe4b689…
11-02 13:23:51	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0x3ea5fd…
11-02 04:57:15	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x7f32c6…
11-02 04:57:07	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0x91fb29…
11-01 15:41:45	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	141	96¢	$135	0x96f569…
11-01 12:57:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	3,077	97¢	$3,000	0xbe4a47…
11-01 12:49:18	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,053	95¢	$1,000	0xb30ff7…
11-01 12:49:00	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0xe7723a…
11-01 11:04:51	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	2,151	93¢	$2,000	0x96cd97…
11-01 04:27:01	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	685	73¢	$500	0x7201a0…
11-01 04:24:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,408	71¢	$1,000	0xb8bca7…
11-01 01:41:34	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0x1e32f3…
11-01 01:40:40	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0xaec8c2…
11-01 01:38:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0x712d6d…
11-01 00:55:36	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$13	0xc1e357…
10-30 23:43:00	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,209	97¢	$1,170	0x94acfa…
10-30 15:14:01	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xd2272b…
10-30 09:20:00	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,223	97¢	$1,184	0x38313a…
10-30 00:24:25	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x51360f…
10-30 00:23:51	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x3462b8…
10-30 00:23:42	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x3b763c…
10-28 11:49:23	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x0d3efd…
10-28 11:44:47	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	47	95¢	$45	0x3d6731…
10-28 10:18:23	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,268	95¢	$1,204	0xe2a5a3…
10-27 16:16:17	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x45f7d5…
10-27 13:17:11	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xb2c2f3…
10-27 13:17:11	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	102	96¢	$98	0x21f4b7…
10-26 08:03:20	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x1efee3…
10-26 08:02:45	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x0b022a…
10-26 08:02:15	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x74af70…
10-26 08:01:42	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xc0a40e…
10-26 08:01:09	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x2d6e93…
10-26 07:52:41	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x09e98f…
10-26 07:51:57	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa4933a…
10-26 07:50:41	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x341bd1…
10-26 07:50:11	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x48d544…
10-26 07:49:38	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xe820f8…
10-26 07:49:06	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xcf829b…
10-26 07:48:35	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x49be68…
10-26 07:48:02	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x7d28e1…
10-26 07:47:30	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x29c5d4…
10-26 06:15:41	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x06c9df…
10-26 06:15:39	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x775e3c…
10-26 06:15:38	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	120	97¢	$116	0x0c4de6…
10-25 22:29:11	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	2,326	91¢	$2,116	0xf052dd…
10-25 12:44:21	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	73	96¢	$70	0xd98d29…
10-25 10:25:14	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	986	96¢	$947	0x458f72…
10-25 10:24:02	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	657	96¢	$631	0x255f10…
10-25 10:23:15	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	877	96¢	$841	0x499bb9…
10-23 23:02:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	845	72¢	$608	0x79359a…
10-23 19:25:17	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0xa87e74…
10-23 13:06:41	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	69	96¢	$66	0xefea4a…
10-23 10:56:36	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	2,045	98¢	$1,996	0x5d8b5f…
10-23 06:09:41	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	538	95¢	$511	0x065d1c…
10-22 15:33:20	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	161	96¢	$155	0x0fa1e0…
10-22 13:20:27	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xbe77f6…
10-22 09:26:29	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0xdb58f2…
10-21 23:40:57	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0x186c21…
10-21 23:32:44	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	120	96¢	$115	0x50ef81…
10-21 22:06:20	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0c6544…
10-21 21:46:38	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	1,572	96¢	$1,509	0x475216…
10-21 17:41:18	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xd98227…
10-21 17:40:47	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,615	97¢	$1,563	0xe3c0ef…
10-21 17:40:45	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	124	97¢	$120	0xe5b16d…
10-21 17:40:45	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x850f6a…
10-21 14:48:24	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x6bf286…
10-21 12:56:09	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	581	91¢	$529	0x46a654…
10-21 08:27:05	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	257	91¢	$234	0xca28d2…
10-20 14:41:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4,880	85¢	$4,148	0x0a87ea…
10-20 12:04:51	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	110	91¢	$100	0x0aa9ba…
10-20 04:18:11	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0x400008…
10-19 12:56:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0xae2e32…
10-19 10:58:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	4,000	94¢	$3,760	0x78f3eb…
10-19 10:55:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	320	94¢	$300	0xe80726…
10-19 08:30:38	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	376	91¢	$343	0xe1c4c5…
10-19 06:07:08	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	92	97¢	$89	0x62d564…
10-19 04:59:48	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0xd0e7dd…
10-19 04:58:38	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xe76554…
10-19 04:58:18	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x4cb43c…
10-19 00:30:14	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	29	91¢	$26	0x3c716c…
10-18 23:34:00	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xa9e7d5…
10-18 23:33:57	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0xcc1609…
10-18 23:33:57	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x1a6aaf…
10-18 23:33:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xb2557a…
10-18 23:33:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x3b292a…
10-18 23:33:54	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	179	91¢	$163	0xb8b9e2…
10-18 16:49:59	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x4f3563…
10-17 17:19:42	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xac6789…
10-17 16:14:05	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x3a6010…
10-16 17:45:21	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	556	98¢	$543	0xb2f734…
10-16 14:27:58	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	460	98¢	$450	0xc93be3…
10-16 01:42:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4,806	85¢	$4,085	0x55c8a1…
10-16 01:42:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	74	85¢	$63	0xc4f41a…
10-15 16:17:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x72e23b…
10-15 10:22:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	111	98¢	$109	0x899fd6…
10-15 07:07:19	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x37e484…
10-15 07:07:13	Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x8e995a…