Realized P&L
+$26
Unrealized P&L
-$11
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
2
Trades
59
lifetime
Volume
$588
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$425
14 positions
First seen
2026-05-06
last 05-17 01:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
85% 100% +$26
Other
12%
Crypto
3%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
12 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027? No -280 $-246 90¢ $-253 $-7 05-11 00:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No +40 $29 77¢ $31 +$2 05-11 01:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -32 $-30 93¢ $-30 +$0 05-11 00:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +40 $32 70¢ $28 $-4 05-07 04:38
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No +20 $18 94¢ $19 +$0 05-06 09:04
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No +29 $18 57¢ $17 $-1 05-16 16:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? No +20 $17 82¢ $16 $-0 05-08 02:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +60 $19 26¢ $16 $-3 05-17 01:33
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes +10 $6 66¢ $7 +$0 05-07 06:03
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -5 $-3 65¢ $-3 $-0 05-11 00:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -4 $-2 72¢ $-3 $-1 05-10 10:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes -26 $-7 10¢ $-2 +$5 05-11 15:21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? No +1 $-1 82¢ $0 +$1 05-16 16:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No -0 $4 80¢ $-0 $-4 05-10 07:53