Round-Resolution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27.4K

Unrealized P&L

+$17.4K

Hit rate

70.9%

Resolved

Trades

497

lifetime

Volume

$1.65M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$3.31K

Open exposure

$425.4K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-01 14:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Politics

57% 56% +$45,207

Other

38% 47% -$26,447

Sports

3% 20% -$2,775

Crypto

2% 100% +$11,417

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 123 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-141,176	-$132,311	98¢	$-138564	-$6,253	06-28 09:44
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+132,023	$117,279	90¢	$119.5K	+$2,202	10-08 13:30
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	+55,078	$43,218	98¢	$53.8K	+$10,621	11-01 15:24
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+51,225	$36,004	92¢	$47.4K	+$11,379	09-01 08:50
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+19,356	$17,612	88¢	$17.0K	-$579	08-24 18:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-15,641	-$14,537	98¢	$-15375	-$838	07-09 18:59
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+15,550	$14,358	94¢	$14.7K	+$336	10-22 10:52
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+8,943	$7,953	97¢	$8.7K	+$721	07-21 06:59
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	-4,143	-$3,470	98¢	$-4044	-$573	05-08 19:05
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	-3,520	-$3,095	96¢	$-3388	-$293	05-08 19:05
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,577	$1,112	94¢	$1.5K	+$370	09-03 09:18
NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	+1,455	$1,124	96¢	$1.4K	+$270	07-21 07:05
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	No	-19	-$16	96¢	$-18	-$2	05-08 19:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	24	$286.5K	204,402	204,402	+0	Yes	+$45,406	05-09 06:41
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	7	$207.4K	40,079	181,255	-141,176	open	—	06-28 09:44
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	39	$165.0K	117,664	62,586	+55,078	open	—	11-01 15:24
Trump out as President before 2027?	163	$129.6K	71,005	71,005	+0	open	—	10-02 17:22
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$120.7K	58,984	74,625	-15,641	open	—	07-09 18:59
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	43	$117.3K	132,023	0	+132,023	open	—	10-08 13:30
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	5	$72.7K	56,494	37,138	+19,356	open	—	08-24 18:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	12	$56.9K	30,628	30,628	+0	No	+$608	06-26 05:22
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	8	$56.6K	30,426	30,426	+0	No	-$277	07-17 08:18
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	24	$40.2K	36,657	28,277	+8,379	No	+$11,417	06-01 12:33
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	66	$36.0K	51,225	0	+51,225	open	—	09-01 08:50
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$32.2K	17,304	17,304	+0	open	—	06-01 12:05
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?	1	$23.9K	0	24,896	-24,896	No	-$1,040	05-08 19:07
NATO article 5 before 2027?	11	$23.6K	13,527	12,071	+1,455	open	—	07-21 07:05
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	15	$21.2K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$19,750	07-17 05:39
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	2	$19.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	Yes	-$200	06-09 16:00
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	8	$17.5K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	07-07 17:30
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	2	$16.9K	9,396	9,396	+0	open	—	06-28 09:45
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?	8	$16.1K	8,114	8,114	+0	Yes	+$106	08-13 09:27
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	1	$15.0K	0	15,389	-15,389	No	-$409	05-08 19:06
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$14.4K	15,550	0	+15,550	open	—	10-22 10:52
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	1	$12.8K	60,896	0	+60,896	No	-$12,788	04-15 17:09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$12.2K	6,913	6,913	+0	open	—	07-06 18:08
nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	2	$11.9K	12,542	0	+12,542	No	+$644	01-14 08:55
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	1	$11.2K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$8,800	06-29 13:46
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	1	$11.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	-$11,000	06-30 06:31
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$9.7K	17,000	0	+17,000	Yes	-$9,690	06-30 08:40
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	14	$8.7K	9,366	423	+8,943	open	—	07-21 06:59
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$8.7K	103,571	0	+103,571	No	-$8,700	06-03 16:40
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	1	$7.6K	8,610	0	+8,610	No	+$1,033	01-10 13:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 15:24:39	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x020acb…
11-01 14:42:15	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xa02fa5…
11-01 14:37:21	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x5e10f4…
11-01 14:10:19	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x729a62…
11-01 13:09:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x157326…
11-01 12:58:39	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x5e8f81…
11-01 12:43:30	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xeefc39…
11-01 10:52:10	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb4bbd3…
11-01 10:52:06	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x2f7542…
11-01 10:51:33	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x9d1f82…
11-01 10:02:57	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf02c60…
11-01 09:14:42	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x2bf25c…
11-01 09:04:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe56fc8…
11-01 08:54:22	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xfd4de1…
11-01 08:54:19	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xca34fb…
11-01 08:52:39	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xa9f428…
11-01 08:49:36	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb4c23b…
11-01 08:42:25	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xcfb085…
11-01 08:36:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x131d6c…
11-01 08:30:25	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0xbb0fb9…
11-01 08:13:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xb0f536…
11-01 08:01:03	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,597	98¢	$5,474	0x4fda57…
10-30 18:41:58	Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	SELL	47,859	4¢	$1,916	0xceb4c7…
10-22 10:52:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5,250	93¢	$4,882	0x03dd47…
10-21 16:07:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x120a98…
10-21 16:07:57	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,931	98¢	$4,854	0xf0e5a3…
10-20 06:14:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10,300	92¢	$9,476	0xe37a79…
10-08 13:30:12	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6,929	88¢	$6,098	0xf90c5f…
10-08 11:55:21	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x9fdcea…
10-08 11:10:35	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x26782c…
10-08 11:05:18	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	22	88¢	$19	0x45fe31…
10-08 05:04:07	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x806149…
10-07 12:57:46	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,011	88¢	$890	0x7524a7…
10-07 09:40:35	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xb4bd46…
10-07 07:16:24	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	88¢	$1,760	0xf678b5…
10-07 03:11:23	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xeb099a…
10-06 02:30:39	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xeb6864…
10-05 15:00:56	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x7b29cd…
10-05 14:50:37	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xcabe0e…
10-05 11:50:34	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xd06690…
10-05 02:40:41	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x62d809…
10-04 23:44:19	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0x5c29e6…
10-04 14:52:10	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xfce9cd…
10-04 13:54:19	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x85d150…
10-03 17:51:57	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x353491…
10-03 13:42:14	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x2cdeb0…
10-03 13:41:23	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xf2ff5d…
10-03 13:40:02	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0xd587cf…
10-03 13:39:48	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	44	88¢	$38	0x4f3a60…
10-03 13:39:42	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	80	88¢	$70	0xd781c8…
10-03 13:39:35	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9e48eb…
10-03 13:39:33	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xf1487d…
10-03 13:39:33	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	198	88¢	$174	0x605ead…
10-03 13:39:33	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	37	88¢	$33	0x114b7b…
10-03 13:39:32	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	34,014	89¢	$30,273	0x7e0769…
10-03 13:39:32	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x42ab2d…
10-03 13:39:32	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	16,570	89¢	$14,747	0x3cba25…
10-03 11:51:56	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xc85117…
10-03 10:51:36	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	18	88¢	$16	0x1b629f…
10-03 09:53:29	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	125	97¢	$122	0x5312e9…
10-03 09:24:26	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xc12190…
10-03 08:41:41	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xc5399c…
10-03 08:24:20	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	44,498	97¢	$43,252	0xeecbe1…
10-03 06:11:48	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x2d62bd…
10-03 02:52:00	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xa44163…
10-02 23:51:51	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x84a5fc…
10-02 20:11:11	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x8a449a…
10-02 19:17:26	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0xf1cc20…
10-02 17:22:45	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	7,101	96¢	$6,817	0x6a91ea…
10-02 17:22:44	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xba7100…
10-02 17:11:11	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xd1f8c4…
10-02 16:06:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x2ab82c…
10-02 15:15:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0xf165db…
10-02 15:14:47	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x4fc584…
10-02 15:14:39	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x438e94…
10-02 15:14:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0xe36687…
10-02 15:12:21	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0xfa4a54…
10-02 15:12:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x26766a…
10-02 15:12:06	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0xf7f117…
10-02 15:09:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x5262ee…
10-02 15:09:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0xa3e7a2…
10-02 15:09:33	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0xd051be…
10-02 15:07:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x50e9bc…
10-02 15:07:45	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xcca509…
10-02 15:07:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xc9414f…
10-02 15:05:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xfcf0f9…
10-02 15:05:27	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x20d38e…
10-02 15:03:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x3aeca1…
10-02 15:03:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x83f5ea…
10-02 15:03:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x817ee0…
10-02 15:01:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x027018…
10-02 15:01:27	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xc30a1c…
10-02 14:59:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xc7c539…
10-02 14:59:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x6f08e1…
10-02 14:57:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xb55996…
10-02 14:57:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x6a201e…
10-02 14:57:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x240be9…
10-02 14:55:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0xeb0230…
10-02 14:55:33	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x6effd4…
10-02 14:55:20	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x06af89…