Golden-Chivalry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$469

Unrealized P&L

+$529

Hit rate

73.1%

Resolved

1,153

Trades

13,719

lifetime

Volume

$183.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$6.25K

30 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 10-29 19:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 167 days

Categories

Other

61% 58% +$508

Politics

37% 64% -$106

Sports

2% 62% +$61

Tech

0% 33% -$15

Crypto

0% 100% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 125 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+1,250	$959	80¢	$1.0K	+$47	10-28 14:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+700	$642	90¢	$634	-$9	10-27 11:31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+450	$393	93¢	$419	+$25	10-19 19:31
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+400	$365	93¢	$372	+$7	10-24 13:06
jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	No	+249	$158	96¢	$240	+$81	10-16 18:36
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+250	$192	82¢	$204	+$12	10-28 18:17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+200	$178	100¢	$199	+$21	10-04 15:23
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+200	$183	97¢	$195	+$12	09-09 19:30
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	No	+200	$186	96¢	$193	+$6	09-07 07:15
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	+200	$181	94¢	$187	+$5	10-04 12:16
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+200	$104	91¢	$181	+$77	10-28 21:07
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+215	$86	82¢	$177	+$91	10-27 21:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+200	$165	86¢	$173	+$7	10-28 16:11
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+250	$173	66¢	$166	-$7	10-27 13:13
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+250	$181	66¢	$166	-$15	10-28 01:49
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-160	-$169	98¢	$-157	+$11	07-10 15:20
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-150	-$153	98¢	$-147	+$7	09-11 21:51
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	+150	$122	95¢	$142	+$20	09-23 01:35
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	+150	$136	94¢	$142	+$6	10-27 08:57
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+150	$125	93¢	$139	+$14	10-12 13:33
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	+160	$141	87¢	$138	-$2	10-17 21:27
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	+250	$65	44¢	$111	+$46	10-28 19:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	No	+100	$98	100¢	$100	+$2	10-02 20:31
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	+100	$98	98¢	$98	+$0	10-15 09:03
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-100	-$108	97¢	$-97	+$11	09-28 09:53
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+100	$89	96¢	$96	+$7	06-29 13:59
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+100	$83	95¢	$95	+$12	09-23 17:10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+100	$79	94¢	$94	+$14	10-04 14:52
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-100	-$108	94¢	$-94	+$14	06-14 21:40
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	No	+100	$89	92¢	$92	+$3	07-14 11:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	135	$4.6K	3,510	2,260	+1,250	open	—	10-28 14:59
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	289	$4.6K	3,068	2,853	+215	open	—	10-27 21:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	113	$2.9K	2,603	2,523	+80	No	+$38	05-27 20:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	86	$2.7K	1,902	902	+1,000	No	+$63	08-13 16:24
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	161	$2.6K	1,317	1,467	-150	open	—	09-11 21:51
jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	90	$2.5K	1,491	1,243	+248	open	—	10-16 18:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	63	$2.4K	1,473	1,473	+0	No	+$40	04-01 12:48
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	78	$2.2K	1,458	1,258	+200	open	—	10-28 21:07
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	113	$2.1K	1,207	1,007	+200	open	—	09-09 19:30
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	121	$2.1K	2,384	2,327	+57	No	+$59	05-30 22:39
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	89	$2.0K	1,162	1,212	-50	open	—	09-23 14:40
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	56	$1.9K	1,270	720	+550	No	+$24	07-31 18:16
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	107	$1.8K	935	1,055	-120	open	—	07-10 15:20
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	42	$1.8K	1,072	1,072	+0	No	+$27	04-16 03:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	43	$1.7K	860	910	-50	No	+$18	06-19 14:43
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	62	$1.7K	1,240	790	+450	open	—	10-19 19:31
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	125	$1.6K	989	939	+50	No	+$19	07-14 02:39
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	28	$1.6K	850	950	-100	open	—	06-14 21:40
Spain snap election called in 2026?	122	$1.5K	1,646	1,643	+4	Yes	-$209	10-05 15:22
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	18	$1.5K	700	900	-200	No	-$9	03-29 13:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	71	$1.5K	1,792	1,742	+50	No	-$16	04-25 08:50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	21	$1.4K	773	773	+0	open	—	10-28 17:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	40	$1.3K	679	699	-20	No	+$13	06-26 12:41
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?	57	$1.3K	770	770	+0	No	+$17	06-18 10:58
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	77	$1.3K	662	662	+0	open	—	10-06 21:20
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	74	$1.3K	720	670	+50	open	—	10-05 04:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	89	$1.2K	1,318	1,218	+100	No	-$7	06-29 09:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	16	$1.2K	850	350	+500	No	+$19	09-11 00:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	13	$1.1K	950	250	+700	open	—	10-27 11:31
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	67	$1.1K	1,083	881	+202	No	+$87	04-12 21:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 21:21:19	Will PSOE win the most seats in Valencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb10ec4…
10-29 19:50:39	Will PP win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xdbddba…
10-29 19:50:39	Will PP win the most seats in Almería in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x792175…
10-29 17:32:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xe6e5c6…
10-29 15:04:43	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	9¢	$4	0xdfe0cd…
10-29 14:05:32	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x7316bc…
10-29 13:20:46	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x04c67b…
10-29 12:34:52	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x8f0294…
10-29 11:29:32	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xd0df2e…
10-29 11:22:31	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x747155…
10-29 09:45:52	Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xfa2743…
10-29 08:00:04	Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xce8444…
10-29 07:50:07	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x80f670…
10-29 02:12:01	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x78a0b9…
10-29 01:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x464d87…
10-28 21:11:02	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x8de646…
10-28 21:07:08	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	80	87¢	$70	0x829f03…
10-28 19:54:55	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	45	54¢	$24	0xc5ca1a…
10-28 19:23:58	Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x53b199…
10-28 18:27:46	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x0d7ace…
10-28 18:25:49	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x6c66bd…
10-28 18:17:59	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xede6cf…
10-28 18:16:17	Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xcd9c82…
10-28 17:59:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x90b2f5…
10-28 16:11:07	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x9f6ee9…
10-28 15:22:35	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x3ab501…
10-28 15:18:16	Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xa509e2…
10-28 15:16:16	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x9543c1…
10-28 15:05:44	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	80	87¢	$69	0xe28eb6…
10-28 14:59:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x068bb1…
10-28 14:21:17	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	80	16¢	$13	0x76b7c8…
10-28 14:11:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xe03da9…
10-28 13:57:38	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0x0261ae…
10-28 13:25:40	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xfcc0db…
10-28 13:15:16	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0xb684b4…
10-28 13:13:41	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x026115…
10-28 13:09:28	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x39759a…
10-28 13:03:41	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x5c46a5…
10-28 13:00:10	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x470830…
10-28 12:39:53	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x3d81f0…
10-28 12:34:50	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0x0d9b33…
10-28 12:25:43	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x90ff34…
10-28 12:19:53	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	49	90¢	$44	0x6a9e65…
10-28 12:13:32	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x1a085a…
10-28 12:13:16	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x7b3ad4…
10-28 12:12:31	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xfe18ac…
10-28 12:11:05	Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	65¢	$0	0x5eb8c3…
10-28 12:05:25	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x1088e1…
10-28 11:43:34	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x86982e…
10-28 11:35:52	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x10c190…
10-28 11:15:01	Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	No	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0x4c6247…
10-28 11:01:31	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x7fc34d…
10-28 10:10:08	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x9ab69c…
10-28 10:05:38	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	25	89¢	$22	0x4e7bca…
10-28 09:58:19	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0xcc1e16…
10-28 09:53:13	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x2cbfe3…
10-28 09:52:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0xcca109…
10-28 09:45:58	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xbca077…
10-28 09:41:17	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xb568b0…
10-28 01:49:14	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	17	63¢	$11	0x4de611…
10-28 01:03:27	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x6f6bed…
10-27 23:57:11	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$43	0xc1ac57…
10-27 23:33:15	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0xd7e062…
10-27 22:28:30	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2a0561…
10-27 22:28:02	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0xd0dda8…
10-27 22:14:59	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$12	0x1cab93…
10-27 22:09:50	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xc3ff3e…
10-27 22:08:42	Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x1008f3…
10-27 22:02:03	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x8fe938…
10-27 21:54:38	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xab461c…
10-27 21:51:39	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xacffc9…
10-27 21:14:45	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x2a60c1…
10-27 20:58:33	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x60c280…
10-27 17:09:42	Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x1a72ac…
10-27 17:05:20	Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xbd3208…
10-27 15:05:17	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x1caffe…
10-27 14:30:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0xe1360b…
10-27 14:01:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xd4ffc6…
10-27 13:58:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x78ace9…
10-27 13:13:51	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x7f688c…
10-27 11:31:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x0a63e2…
10-27 09:47:53	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xad9e35…
10-27 09:08:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xb37025…
10-27 08:57:32	Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xd04c5b…
10-27 08:54:00	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xeaffdf…
10-27 08:53:44	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xac7b3e…
10-27 08:50:35	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x2e2f25…
10-27 08:47:41	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	69	19¢	$13	0xee6fb7…
10-27 08:46:23	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xab57c1…
10-27 07:24:44	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xd7d6ce…
10-27 06:04:56	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x98c804…
10-27 00:52:12	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x781089…
10-26 23:09:45	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x21c057…
10-26 22:39:02	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0x4501e0…
10-26 22:02:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x0af601…
10-26 21:59:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x5fc673…
10-26 21:55:20	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd72ecc…
10-26 21:28:15	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0x0a6145…
10-26 21:05:30	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9e1bdc…
10-26 18:56:21	Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0x4e1968…