Realized P&L (7d)
+$141
Unrealized P&L
-$28.9K
Hit rate
96.6%
Resolved (7d)
4
Trades (7d)
128
8,814 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$16.4K
$1.54M lifetime
Avg / trade
$175
Open exposure
$173.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-14 13:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Other
65%
68%
+$46,777
Politics
15%
42%
-$23,053
Crypto
9%
32%
-$5,006
Sports
9%
38%
-$23,824
Tech
2%
44%
+$857
Pop-Culture
0%
75%
+$454
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 198 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +20,533 | $6,110 | 94¢ | $19.4K | +$13,294 | 11-11 22:04 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -21,533 | -$9,131 | 76¢ | $-16473 | -$7,342 | 07-22 23:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -13,000 | -$9,147 | 93¢ | $-12064 | -$2,917 | 07-24 02:09 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -13,755 | -$7,839 | 85¢ | $-11719 | -$3,880 | 07-18 21:08 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | -11,000 | -$10,495 | 98¢ | $-10730 | -$236 | 10-01 02:55 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | +19,913 | $7,733 | 47¢ | $9.4K | +$1,696 | 11-14 02:56 | |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | No | -9,228 | -$7,642 | 99¢ | $-9168 | -$1,526 | 06-04 22:44 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | -9,421 | -$6,524 | 96¢ | $-9011 | -$2,487 | 06-29 09:03 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | -9,000 | -$8,650 | 98¢ | $-8861 | -$211 | 09-23 11:27 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? | Yes | +15,956 | $8,948 | 54¢ | $8.5K | -$412 | 11-12 21:46 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +27,500 | $5,334 | 30¢ | $8.3K | +$3,012 | 11-14 14:37 | |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | -10,417 | -$5,668 | 70¢ | $-7256 | -$1,588 | 07-23 22:38 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | Yes | +7,300 | $5,389 | 94¢ | $6.9K | +$1,510 | 11-11 11:30 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | +23,991 | $13,639 | 25¢ | $6.0K | -$7,641 | 11-10 22:54 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | No | +4,953 | $4,362 | 99¢ | $4.9K | +$532 | 11-12 15:36 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +18,315 | $7,705 | 24¢ | $4.3K | -$3,400 | 11-04 16:40 | |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027? | Yes | +5,352 | $2,790 | 50¢ | $2.7K | -$87 | 11-14 14:17 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +15,641 | $9,524 | 15¢ | $2.3K | -$7,209 | 11-04 20:15 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +27,557 | $5,365 | 7¢ | $2.0K | -$3,381 | 09-02 23:50 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -2,000 | -$1,154 | 98¢ | $-1966 | -$812 | 09-08 18:22 | |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | +2,000 | $1,720 | 86¢ | $1.7K | +$10 | 11-06 18:12 | |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? | No | +1,697 | $944 | 85¢ | $1.4K | +$500 | 11-01 11:12 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | +6,222 | $2,412 | 20¢ | $1.3K | -$1,137 | 11-10 10:27 | |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | -4,283 | -$1,087 | 29¢ | $-1221 | -$134 | 11-05 15:15 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +28,038 | $4,541 | 4¢ | $1.2K | -$3,322 | 11-04 16:40 | |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | No | +1,125 | $961 | 98¢ | $1.1K | +$141 | 11-02 04:52 | |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? | Yes | +1,178 | $708 | 82¢ | $963 | +$255 | 10-10 05:33 | |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027? | Yes | +1,542 | $893 | 62¢ | $956 | +$63 | 11-12 18:35 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | -1,004 | -$853 | 94¢ | $-949 | -$95 | 07-01 23:04 | |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | Yes | +20,073 | $2,912 | 4¢ | $803 | -$2,110 | 11-11 07:12 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1,295 | $309.8K | 373,910 | 363,531 | +10,379 | Yes | +$14,926 | 01-31 05:05 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 59 | $94.3K | 60,000 | 60,000 | -0 | open | — | 10-30 11:05 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 92 | $55.5K | 32,000 | 32,000 | +0 | No | +$6,474 | 09-06 21:13 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320 | 39 | $49.0K | 26,700 | 26,700 | +0 | No | +$2,913 | 08-14 13:46 |
| will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026 | 191 | $40.8K | 29,860 | 30,029 | -169 | Yes | -$10 | 02-08 21:03 |
| maduro out by january 31 2026 318 | 96 | $34.8K | 42,391 | 33,651 | +8,740 | Yes | +$14,271 | 01-03 09:32 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 75 | $30.2K | 23,327 | 28,256 | -4,929 | Yes | -$4,138 | 11-03 00:29 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 79 | $28.6K | 34,326 | 13,793 | +20,533 | open | — | 11-11 22:04 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | 22 | $25.2K | 14,354 | 14,354 | +0 | open | — | 08-25 23:41 |
| nfl sea ne 2026 02 08 | 85 | $22.5K | 26,020 | 10,238 | +15,782 | Seahawks | +$1,433 | 02-09 01:43 |
| will coinbase run an ad during super bowl lx | 100 | $22.3K | 18,852 | 18,852 | +0 | Yes | +$2,325 | 02-09 00:53 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | 57 | $20.4K | 14,330 | 16,902 | -2,572 | Yes | -$472 | 09-15 12:49 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 124 | $20.3K | 25,809 | 29,027 | -3,218 | open | — | 11-04 16:40 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 78 | $19.5K | 31,000 | 29,114 | +1,886 | open | — | 11-04 20:15 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 39 | $18.3K | 12,285 | 16,261 | -3,976 | Yes | -$2,362 | 02-06 05:01 |
| odds of gov shutdown over 90 on friday night | 15 | $18.0K | 19,353 | 0 | +19,353 | Yes | +$1,303 | 01-31 05:07 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 105 | $17.2K | 26,775 | 2,784 | +23,991 | open | — | 11-10 22:54 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 83 | $16.7K | 29,090 | 14,532 | +14,557 | open | — | 09-02 23:50 |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? | 54 | $16.5K | 15,599 | 8,299 | +7,300 | open | — | 11-11 11:30 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | 126 | $16.3K | 28,989 | 9,076 | +19,913 | open | — | 11-14 02:56 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 39 | $15.9K | 12,019 | 5,659 | +6,360 | No | +$1,285 | 11-04 03:55 |
| will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026 | 22 | $15.3K | 12,924 | 5,022 | +7,902 | No | +$548 | 02-23 21:52 |
| will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics | 87 | $14.5K | 14,429 | 12,668 | +1,761 | Yes | -$1,246 | 02-19 16:16 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 85 | $13.4K | 12,580 | 21,092 | -8,512 | No | +$3,507 | 10-31 23:33 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 72 | $12.5K | 30,419 | 13,336 | +17,082 | open | — | 11-14 14:37 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 49 | $12.5K | 30,229 | 11,613 | +18,617 | open | — | 11-04 16:40 |
| will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026 | 34 | $12.2K | 8,395 | 8,687 | -292 | Yes | +$466 | 02-22 15:32 |
| will the dhs shutdown last 30 days or more 945 663 | 40 | $12.0K | 16,027 | 0 | +16,027 | Yes | +$4,048 | 03-11 05:48 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 99 | $11.6K | 16,180 | 16,208 | -28 | No | -$3,059 | 01-31 07:03 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | 37 | $11.1K | 7,216 | 6,850 | +366 | open | — | 11-12 00:58 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||