Vain-Burn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$138

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

12.5%

Resolved

Trades

254

lifetime

Volume

$21.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

$105

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 06-14 11:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

46% 0% $-100

Other

26% 67% +$8

Crypto

26% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		-112	$-105	94¢	$-105	$-0	06-14 06:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$4.6K	2,334	2,334	+0	open	—	02-02 04:15
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	9	$3.5K	2,224	2,224	+0	open	—	02-06 08:22
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$1.8K	944	944	+0	open	—	03-26 00:50
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	7	$1.5K	969	969	+0	open	—	03-31 07:49
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	3	$844	854	455	+400	open	—	03-26 00:15
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	2	$744	400	400	+0	open	—	02-10 05:59
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	4	$618	329	329	+0	open	—	03-26 00:51
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$316	274	274	+0	open	—	03-22 12:53
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$256	187	157	+30	open	—	03-19 06:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$245	468	200	+268	open	—	02-28 14:22
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$220	125	125	+0	open	—	02-22 08:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$213	116	116	+0	open	—	03-03 12:22
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	3	$210	278	278	+0	open	—	03-30 02:52
will crude oil cl hit low 40 by end of march 777 183 974 725 949 716 258 533 859 313 659 847	1	$200	205	0	+205	open	—	03-01 10:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$195	119	119	+0	open	—	04-04 12:57
deepseek v4 released by march 21	1	$180	200	0	+200	open	—	03-14 10:33
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 16	2	$179	110	110	+0	open	—	03-12 02:13
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$175	100	100	+0	open	—	03-09 19:28
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	1	$150	165	0	+165	open	—	02-28 14:39
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	1	$150	160	0	+160	open	—	03-12 06:44
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$138	190	190	+0	open	—	03-18 00:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	3	$137	355	286	+69	open	—	03-16 02:34
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on february 13	4	$117	100	100	+0	open	—	02-13 14:06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$105	0	112	-112	open	—	06-14 06:59
khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 0 19	2	$101	100	50	+50	open	—	03-19 01:14
btc updown 5m 1771156800	1	$100	250	0	+250	open	—	02-15 12:04
will the price of bitcoin be less than 68000 on february 10	1	$100	121	0	+121	open	—	02-10 06:00
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	03-26 00:14
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	1	$100	122	0	+122	Yes	$-100	02-28 11:20
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 10 468	1	$100	148	0	+148	open	—	03-08 13:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 11:00:03	btc updown 5m 1781434800	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x995984…
06-14 10:56:30	btc updown 5m 1781434500	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x9e57e4…
06-14 10:52:15	will erling haaland score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611154419433	No	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x2d7985…
06-14 10:50:25	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x1b4788…
06-14 10:49:45	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0xe89e50…
06-14 10:49:10	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x475529…
06-14 10:48:40	will lionel messi score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x3e7193…
06-14 06:59:12	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	112	94¢	$105	0x7fca05…
06-14 06:39:54	btc updown 5m 1781419200	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x649a7d…
06-14 06:39:51	btc updown 5m 1781419200	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x29fcd2…
05-08 03:34:41	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	26	7¢	$2	0xebd8a4…
04-20 14:33:26	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xb6fda3…
04-20 14:21:34	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x08e7f2…
04-16 00:52:02	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	30¢	$18	0xb45cbc…
04-12 11:17:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x794500…
04-11 12:07:17	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xb0831b…
04-11 12:02:23	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x000860…
04-10 14:00:07	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x5615e3…
04-09 09:46:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xce02ff…
04-09 09:27:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x89cddc…
04-06 05:21:57	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfc5e79…
04-04 13:00:13	Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x87e2c0…
04-04 12:57:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	119	96¢	$115	0x0374fb…
04-04 12:57:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	84¢	$28	0x4de116…
04-03 02:41:07	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	264	4¢	$10	0x1655a1…
04-02 12:28:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xfebaa0…
04-02 09:36:11	bitcoin above 66k on april 2	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xe40a6d…
04-02 09:09:19	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	SELL	88	64¢	$56	0x1c0539…
04-01 12:02:17	will trump say maga or make america great again during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x45eae7…
04-01 08:49:45	will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	Yes	BUY	88	14¢	$12	0x1bf95a…
04-01 07:37:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xcf3f75…
04-01 07:35:19	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x6604be…
04-01 02:39:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x2f8cf4…
04-01 00:19:33	Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?	No	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x13dcbb…
03-31 13:20:53	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x5b6578…
03-31 09:38:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	No	BUY	67	89¢	$60	0xae69c6…
03-31 07:49:09	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	SELL	736	98¢	$720	0xf7f28f…
03-31 07:10:13	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0xedaff2…
03-30 02:52:16	Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	SELL	278	4¢	$10	0x261b85…
03-29 11:48:10	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	315	63¢	$200	0xa93081…
03-29 11:47:50	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	SELL	232	37¢	$87	0x5f588a…
03-29 11:47:42	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	Yes	BUY	232	43¢	$100	0x8b2dcc…
03-29 11:47:22	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x6a84cd…
03-27 15:50:27	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	SELL	22	39¢	$9	0x4e4f74…
03-27 12:21:43	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xe7873b…
03-27 12:21:31	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x68f58e…
03-27 12:21:21	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x0868a3…
03-27 12:21:11	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xfb0cc8…
03-27 12:21:05	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x04255d…
03-27 12:09:01	khamenei of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x310f93…
03-27 10:01:39	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 31 2026 112	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x802423…
03-27 10:01:21	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xa22da6…
03-27 10:01:13	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 29 2026 897	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xce0af0…
03-27 10:01:07	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 28 2026 519	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x4feacb…
03-26 08:12:39	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0x56b79e…
03-26 01:11:27	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	302	84¢	$254	0xb8a8e5…
03-26 00:53:01	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	98	84¢	$82	0x47f538…
03-26 00:51:39	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	SELL	329	99¢	$326	0x5ba188…
03-26 00:50:45	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	944	100¢	$940	0xa7847b…
03-26 00:15:43	Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xf758b1…
03-26 00:14:59	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x38b98b…
03-25 08:22:15	highest temperature in shanghai on march 26 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	106	3¢	$3	0x4ae2b3…
03-25 08:22:09	highest temperature in shanghai on march 26 2026 16c	No	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x8dca54…
03-24 03:00:39	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 20c	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xde283a…
03-24 03:00:35	highest temperature in shanghai on march 25 2026 17c	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xfd29a2…
03-23 13:20:55	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	Yes	BUY	166	12¢	$20	0xfdcdc0…
03-22 12:54:41	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0xa561e4…
03-22 12:53:21	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	50	75¢	$37	0x9a6621…
03-22 10:31:13	highest temperature in shanghai on march 23 2026 17c	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xa3b498…
03-20 14:14:05	Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	455	79¢	$359	0x0bd72b…
03-20 00:35:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0xeacc17…
03-20 00:34:13	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xc51344…
03-20 00:26:43	highest temperature in shanghai on march 20 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x8b9150…
03-20 00:26:31	highest temperature in shanghai on march 20 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xe60fa3…
03-19 06:19:05	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x02e4d2…
03-19 06:18:33	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x818689…
03-19 06:08:21	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0xa85ad2…
03-19 06:04:41	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x260ce7…
03-19 02:38:19	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x7143f1…
03-19 02:11:59	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 12c	Yes	SELL	17	59¢	$10	0x64f434…
03-19 01:14:25	khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 0 19	Yes	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0xf0535a…
03-18 10:02:33	will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xba8def…
03-18 09:49:09	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x0d2cfa…
03-18 09:46:57	khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x20d42a…
03-18 09:46:35	khamenei of tweets march 20 march 27 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xaea3be…
03-18 01:10:13	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 20 2026 353	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x907518…
03-18 01:01:05	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	89¢	$38	0x4533f3…
03-18 01:00:51	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	89¢	$33	0xf0dd74…
03-18 00:59:19	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x2e0ac7…
03-18 00:59:03	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x9f8b0d…
03-18 00:59:01	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc7838d…
03-18 00:56:31	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	90	56¢	$50	0x1bc913…
03-18 00:52:01	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	SELL	57	46¢	$26	0xc22dbf…
03-18 00:51:45	will trump visit china by march 31	Yes	SELL	139	2¢	$3	0x8b0b6e…
03-16 15:22:25	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x5082f0…
03-16 12:17:27	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xfc8241…
03-16 12:17:17	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x201456…
03-16 11:40:43	Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	433	2¢	$10	0xca54e2…
03-16 05:24:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	119	67¢	$80	0x3675b1…
03-16 05:24:11	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	Yes	SELL	60	20¢	$12	0x442441…