Vain-Burn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$138

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

12.5%

Resolved

Trades

521

lifetime

Volume

$42.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$81

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 07-25 04:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

42% 67% +$8

Politics

28% 0% $-100

Sports

15% 0% $-46

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$4.6K	2,334	2,334	+0	open	—	02-02 04:15
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	9	$3.5K	2,224	2,224	+0	open	—	02-06 08:22
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	4	$2.3K	1,479	1,279	+200	open	—	07-19 21:52
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	9	$2.2K	51,283	1,283	+50,000	open	—	07-08 12:20
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$1.8K	944	944	+0	open	—	03-26 00:50
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	9	$1.8K	1,818	869	+949	open	—	07-19 21:05
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	7	$1.5K	969	969	+0	open	—	03-31 07:49
will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	5	$1.3K	1,700	0	+1,700	open	—	07-06 02:00
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	10	$1.0K	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	07-05 22:22
Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?	3	$844	854	455	+400	open	—	03-26 00:15
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	3	$802	900	0	+900	open	—	07-03 23:36
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	2	$744	400	400	+0	open	—	02-10 05:59
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	4	$618	329	329	+0	open	—	03-26 00:51
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	12	$610	5,817	0	+5,817	open	—	07-20 02:51
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$606	0	639	-639	open	—	07-04 07:45
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$394	0	400	-400	open	—	07-04 07:44
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	1	$389	0	440	-440	open	—	07-04 07:47
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	6	$387	500	0	+500	open	—	07-07 18:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$338	200	200	+0	open	—	07-01 10:48
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	3	$338	679	0	+679	open	—	07-19 20:17
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	2	$328	200	200	+0	open	—	07-12 03:39
will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	13	$322	400	350	+50	open	—	07-19 20:20
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$316	274	274	+0	open	—	03-22 12:53
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	1	$300	455	0	+455	open	—	07-07 04:32
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	1	$261	300	0	+300	open	—	07-16 06:43
will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	5	$258	700	0	+700	open	—	07-17 23:39
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$256	187	157	+30	open	—	03-19 06:04
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 corners total 6pt5	2	$251	200	200	+0	open	—	07-12 02:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	6	$245	468	200	+268	open	—	02-28 14:22
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	1	$236	300	0	+300	open	—	07-15 06:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 04:00:16	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xca847b…
07-25 03:55:37	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x0a34f0…
07-24 07:33:46	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x959341…
07-23 13:26:04	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	264	2¢	$4	0xa7f509…
07-23 01:02:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0xe7f3d9…
07-21 05:38:27	Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?	No	BUY	236	2¢	$4	0xf6c848…
07-21 03:07:04	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x1eb72c…
07-20 02:51:33	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	4,286	1¢	$30	0x41f804…
07-19 21:52:55	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	1,279	92¢	$1,177	0x1fba44…
07-19 21:50:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	946	95¢	$900	0x36696d…
07-19 21:48:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	732	41¢	$300	0x780767…
07-19 21:09:54	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x7ce807…
07-19 21:05:13	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	869	30¢	$259	0xa5c8bb…
07-19 20:56:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xcc04ec…
07-19 20:56:18	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	43	48¢	$20	0x257ff2…
07-19 20:43:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	238	63¢	$150	0x9bbec5…
07-19 20:20:18	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	85	20¢	$17	0x7849d0…
07-19 20:17:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	479	42¢	$200	0xa5e2c4…
07-19 19:59:36	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	333	60¢	$200	0xcb9409…
07-19 19:23:12	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xc9676d…
07-19 17:22:54	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x89c2ea…
07-19 16:36:48	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0x613028…
07-19 16:11:42	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners total 6pt5	Over	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0x2a6a50…
07-19 16:11:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 assists lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x131df2…
07-19 15:38:09	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xa4ff08…
07-19 15:37:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 extra time	Yes	BUY	500	33¢	$165	0x75333c…
07-19 15:37:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0xeb49c9…
07-18 19:31:01	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xaf9f63…
07-17 23:39:28	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	380	36¢	$137	0x463765…
07-17 23:39:28	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0x0baec4…
07-17 22:27:48	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0x27821a…
07-17 22:15:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	183	51¢	$93	0x4b388f…
07-17 22:15:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0xa480d8…
07-17 20:50:34	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa27baa…
07-17 14:01:49	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	31	83¢	$25	0x26d2b8…
07-17 11:35:18	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x927748…
07-17 11:24:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x27fc32…
07-17 11:21:06	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xff5917…
07-17 11:07:07	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9760c6…
07-16 19:34:58	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xf97e61…
07-16 18:52:50	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	64	89¢	$57	0xfe0b5a…
07-16 16:00:47	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	197	69¢	$136	0x669241…
07-16 14:51:52	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	37	89¢	$33	0x7b1873…
07-16 14:20:25	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xc5753f…
07-16 13:35:49	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	192	39¢	$75	0x9d62d5…
07-16 10:33:11	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x238c35…
07-16 07:44:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0x8f9c0d…
07-16 07:23:52	will lionel messi score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x62e1a1…
07-16 06:43:26	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0xa875d7…
07-15 19:44:16	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0x55e077…
07-15 06:39:53	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	300	79¢	$236	0x2b15f8…
07-15 03:17:50	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x9b7608…
07-15 03:17:34	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	200	46¢	$93	0x898a6a…
07-14 20:50:49	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	262	51¢	$134	0xcd7fac…
07-14 15:36:07	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	51	58¢	$29	0x419142…
07-14 15:35:55	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	249	58¢	$145	0xd9d39f…
07-14 00:57:46	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	98	10¢	$10	0x3c5074…
07-13 11:24:01	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x3c7fee…
07-13 03:43:47	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x22ed5f…
07-13 03:37:04	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xea46f9…
07-13 03:11:53	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	204	10¢	$20	0xa3ac55…
07-13 03:11:20	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe49f6a…
07-13 03:11:19	Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xbf2d90…
07-12 20:17:28	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	704	35¢	$247	0x162b87…
07-12 19:29:53	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0xdb4369…
07-12 19:27:29	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x41f56d…
07-12 18:32:29	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0xe39137…
07-12 17:21:14	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0xb95120…
07-12 16:22:43	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x21c3e9…
07-12 13:31:47	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	17	35¢	$6	0x9175aa…
07-12 13:11:16	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xb8bdf6…
07-12 12:42:37	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x2429cc…
07-12 12:16:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x6558ae…
07-12 11:13:16	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x1d13e5…
07-12 10:20:59	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x6b9847…
07-12 10:05:58	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xb39b60…
07-12 07:24:44	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xf08428…
07-12 06:35:23	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xbaf699…
07-12 06:02:11	will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x69a5c4…
07-12 06:00:11	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0xe7f6f8…
07-12 05:40:02	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x299cdf…
07-12 05:14:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 extra time	No	BUY	17	71¢	$12	0x654d34…
07-12 05:11:13	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 assists michael olise gte1	Yes	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x70f926…
07-12 05:09:16	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 extra time	No	BUY	83	71¢	$59	0xfaa732…
07-12 05:09:04	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	300	59¢	$177	0x01e11c…
07-12 05:08:50	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x8836a1…
07-12 03:39:49	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x5b5be0…
07-12 03:29:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xd81d3c…
07-12 03:08:07	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x69d0fc…
07-12 02:57:23	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	91	83¢	$76	0x7e78d7…
07-12 02:57:19	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xf23c50…
07-12 02:57:14	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x45164e…
07-12 02:57:02	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$11	0x77178d…
07-12 02:56:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x53160d…
07-12 02:56:44	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	31	82¢	$25	0xf0469f…
07-12 02:43:08	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 corners total 6pt5	Over	SELL	200	53¢	$105	0xa02ccb…
07-09 23:46:02	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 penalty shootout	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x164ec1…
07-09 23:45:41	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xf6e43b…
07-09 23:45:17	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 btts	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x51c42e…
07-09 23:44:58	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xc9e9df…