Wary-Instance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$5.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 07-16 20:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

71% 100% +$0

Sports

22% — —

Politics

6% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol t1 dk 2026 02 22	1	$3.9K	5,147	0	+5,147	open	—	02-22 05:56
nba lal det 2026 03 23	2	$1.2K	2,367	0	+2,367	open	—	03-23 17:08
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$318	200	200	+0	open	—	03-06 16:30
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$40	48	48	+0	open	—	03-06 17:32
will cal baptist win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$20	9,970	9,970	+0	open	—	03-17 10:45
will team 43 win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$20	9,970	9,970	+0	open	—	03-19 19:51
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	8	$19	9,313	9,313	+0	open	—	03-14 16:56
Will Strasbourg win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	2	$13	6,404	6,404	+0	open	—	03-16 19:02
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	7	$7	3,608	3,608	-0	open	—	03-15 18:24
Will Brest win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	3	$7	3,540	3,540	+0	open	—	03-16 19:01
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	5	$6	4	3	+1	open	—	07-16 20:04
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	4	$6	3	3	-0	open	—	07-15 12:03
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	4	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	07-15 12:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	3	$4	3	1	+2	open	—	07-16 20:00
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	06-23 17:44
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:45
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:45
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	05-13 16:59
will mrbeast say thousand or million 10 times during his next youtube video	2	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	02-22 04:31
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:45
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:44
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	2	$3	1	1	+0	open	—	07-15 12:04
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:44
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-15 12:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-23 17:45
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-15 12:04
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-22 18:15
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	06-04 20:00
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-12 17:45
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-18 17:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 20:04:47	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4b9ca1…
07-16 20:04:05	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x655766…
07-16 20:03:35	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9b409a…
07-16 20:02:41	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x000e0a…
07-16 20:01:52	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa1320c…
07-16 20:01:29	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7c10e4…
07-16 20:01:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa0eb41…
07-16 20:00:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xea6108…
07-15 12:04:31	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc1690c…
07-15 12:04:25	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x42f7a3…
07-15 12:04:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x98cc80…
07-15 12:04:08	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc94299…
07-15 12:04:02	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0bdc4f…
07-15 12:03:56	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x6fd5d8…
07-15 12:03:50	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x803c7e…
07-09 15:22:34	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0x491940…
07-09 15:20:58	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9e7436…
07-09 15:20:19	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x359853…
07-09 15:19:13	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x12ee06…
07-09 15:18:28	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb59c69…
07-09 15:17:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x34f246…
07-09 15:16:22	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4c7d0f…
07-04 12:28:26	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xaeb5f3…
07-04 12:28:19	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xe25eb8…
06-23 17:48:40	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x031277…
06-23 17:45:56	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0da8a7…
06-23 17:45:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x284c60…
06-23 17:45:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf5da40…
06-23 17:45:08	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x238400…
06-23 17:44:56	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2b2cc5…
06-23 17:44:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x66da44…
06-23 17:44:23	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x23fa60…
06-23 17:44:04	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x8491de…
06-16 16:55:20	Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5fc5db…
06-16 16:54:29	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3ad963…
06-16 16:52:22	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd5817f…
06-16 16:51:59	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6b7696…
06-16 16:48:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xacd0a2…
06-16 16:45:08	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xe951c0…
06-16 16:44:35	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7512bb…
06-16 16:43:53	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x4a8634…
06-16 16:39:29	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb7479d…
06-16 16:38:28	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0xf0d6da…
06-16 16:35:17	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd79596…
06-16 16:34:41	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x675bf6…
06-16 16:33:22	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1349af…
06-16 16:32:04	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x1c7619…
06-04 20:01:42	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x4e5ed1…
06-04 20:01:27	first round outright winner in the la mayoral election	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc4a87e…
06-04 20:01:21	Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x36c736…
06-04 20:01:12	Weed rescheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xafb28c…
06-04 20:01:07	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x671407…
06-04 20:00:58	Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x35dc9f…
06-04 20:00:54	SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3577ec…
06-04 20:00:48	Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd9ed36…
06-04 20:00:33	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x8b5876…
05-18 17:53:18	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb831db…
05-18 17:52:34	Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8cce52…
05-18 17:52:17	Will Marvell Q1 Data Center revenue be above $1.7B?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeef3c5…
05-18 17:50:18	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcc0e46…
05-18 17:49:45	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1404da…
05-18 17:48:29	Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x671e9c…
05-18 17:47:56	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $800 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0b06af…
05-18 17:47:09	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x739921…
05-18 17:45:13	Will XRP reach $3.00 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xec4e64…
05-13 16:59:37	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x6f9524…
04-04 08:25:37	will the total number of tsa passengers for april 4 be less than 3000000 632	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x35c5d8…
04-04 08:25:05	Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x42d855…
04-04 08:23:55	will progressive bulgaria pb win the most seats in the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x7a5639…
04-04 08:22:35	Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x29405c…
04-04 08:18:59	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x80feb1…
04-04 08:18:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x06579b…
03-23 17:08:53	nba lal det 2026 03 23	Lakers	BUY	1,228	52¢	$639	0x36ae60…
03-22 20:34:29	nba lal det 2026 03 23	Lakers	BUY	1,139	48¢	$547	0x0b8a10…
03-22 18:16:27	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3ad491…
03-22 18:16:13	will manuel saavedra win the 2026 santa cruz de la sierra mayoral election	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe2102c…
03-22 18:15:59	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on spotify this week 488	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcfb457…
03-22 18:15:23	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe7be72…
03-22 18:14:59	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x249edd…
03-22 18:14:45	Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0xd5b431…
03-22 18:14:17	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe14117…
03-22 18:14:07	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf7bf3…
03-22 18:13:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc34647…
03-19 19:51:49	will team 43 win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	2,874	0¢	$3	0xd7bea4…
03-19 16:55:25	will team 43 win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	7,096	0¢	$7	0xcf9e8d…
03-18 08:49:53	will team 43 win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	9,970	0¢	$10	0x6f155f…
03-17 10:45:49	will cal baptist win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	9,970	0¢	$10	0xa34eb4…
03-16 19:24:51	will cal baptist win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	9,970	0¢	$10	0xe83c34…
03-16 19:02:01	Will Strasbourg win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	SELL	6,404	0¢	$6	0x997bbd…
03-16 19:01:23	Will Brest win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	SELL	2,530	0¢	$3	0xbb9f79…
03-16 19:00:29	Will Brest win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	SELL	1,010	0¢	$1	0xefb870…
03-16 13:33:17	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x4329f9…
03-16 13:32:19	Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc3c521…
03-16 13:28:33	Will Brest win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	BUY	3,540	0¢	$4	0x28895f…
03-15 18:24:03	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	589	0¢	$1	0xb55f66…
03-15 16:53:35	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf253af…
03-15 07:22:11	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9c5997…
03-15 06:30:53	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf34a55…
03-15 03:56:59	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xebacd8…
03-14 19:13:27	Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x4bc203…