Fruitful-Safeguard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$21.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$394

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

235

Trades

2,131

lifetime

Volume

$1.10M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$516

Open exposure

$2.64K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-12 13:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Politics

46% 89% -$23,636

Other

38% 86% -$8,820

Sports

14% 75% +$7,406

Crypto

2% 50% +$3,126

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,389	-$1,193	95¢	$-1313	-$120	10-01 06:56
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	+600	$517	70¢	$417	-$99	09-14 19:28
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?	No	+250	$246	99¢	$247	+$1	07-28 15:09
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Yes	+1,089	$394	22¢	$238	-$156	08-15 05:20
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	No	+200	$200	100¢	$200	$0	07-28 15:08
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	No	-76	-$75	99¢	$-76	$0	10-03 19:20
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+101	$89	54¢	$54	-$35	05-04 14:05
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-35	-$35	99¢	$-35	$0	10-03 19:13
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	No	-26	-$25	97¢	$-25	$0	10-03 19:18
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	No	-25	-$13	78¢	$-20	-$7	07-20 13:02
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-10	-$10	98¢	$-10	$0	10-03 19:13
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+17	$16	56¢	$9	-$7	05-04 14:06
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	+0	-$24	92¢	$0	+$24	09-28 09:49
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+0	-$6	93¢	$0	+$6	10-06 12:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel nuke iran by january 31	70	$73.2K	36,703	36,703	+0	No	+$37	01-25 12:00
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	204	$70.2K	254,639	254,638	+1	No	+$7,682	07-06 17:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$57.2K	58,537	0	+58,537	No	+$1,328	04-26 12:25
fl1 met lyo 2026 01 25 lyo	28	$47.2K	23,735	23,735	+0	Yes	+$174	01-25 18:07
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	568	$43.5K	410,163	410,162	+1	No	-$31	06-14 16:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$41.2K	20,901	20,901	+0	Yes	-$100	02-01 14:04
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$37.3K	18,671	18,671	+0	Yes	+$0	01-03 15:14
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$37.2K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$400	05-09 23:19
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	5	$28.7K	20,000	9,211	+10,789	No	+$101	01-30 15:34
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	40	$28.3K	143,786	143,786	+0	No	-$1,203	06-17 19:10
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	4	$23.6K	11,991	11,991	+0	No	+$88	05-09 23:16
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$22.2K	22,200	0	+22,200	Yes	+$44	02-08 16:06
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	3	$20.8K	20,917	0	+20,917	No	+$97	01-26 13:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$18.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	-$18,787	05-05 04:46
maduro in us custody by january 31	1	$18.6K	18,578	0	+18,578	Yes	+$19	01-04 09:38
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	23	$18.4K	9,890	8,873	+1,017	No	+$53	03-08 22:33
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	2	$16.2K	9,457	9,457	+0	Yes	-$95	06-21 01:06
israel strikes iran by january 23 2026	3	$15.9K	16,563	0	+16,563	No	+$700	01-22 11:06
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	33	$15.3K	9,200	6,266	+2,934	No	+$83	03-15 19:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$13.8K	7,000	7,000	+0	No	+$151	05-25 14:30
ucl oly lev2 2026 01 20 oly	8	$12.1K	12,998	0	+12,998	Yes	+$860	01-20 21:30
us strikes iran by january 25 2026 759 796 449	2	$11.9K	12,101	0	+12,101	No	+$157	01-25 17:06
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	1	$11.7K	11,803	0	+11,803	No	+$71	02-08 16:09
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	19	$11.2K	5,786	5,786	+0	Yes	+$317	07-03 04:50
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$10.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$118	03-08 18:55
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26?	9	$10.6K	5,324	5,324	+0	Yes	+$11	04-26 18:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$10.2K	5,202	5,202	+0	No	+$126	05-29 15:32
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	1	$9.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$452	01-21 07:58
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4	$9.3K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	09-26 10:44
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$9.3K	4,693	4,693	+0	No	+$89	04-26 10:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 13:15:45	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	96¢	$98	0x5e72b2…
10-11 08:12:36	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8a462d…
10-09 17:24:52	Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	96¢	$75	0x0379c2…
10-06 12:52:36	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	65	96¢	$62	0x11f00e…
10-05 17:38:23	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x9db8bd…
10-05 14:45:55	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$33	0xd27896…
10-05 14:06:11	Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$0	0xacd18b…
10-04 21:55:07	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	198	92¢	$183	0x372a50…
10-03 21:28:43	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0xd309e3…
10-03 21:28:43	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xd1c242…
10-03 21:28:43	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x13f853…
10-03 19:20:15	Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0x71eaf8…
10-03 19:19:48	Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x680074…
10-03 19:18:15	Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x276bfd…
10-03 19:17:49	Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xbee7e5…
10-03 19:13:58	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xe2fac9…
10-03 19:13:16	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0x42a652…
10-03 19:11:43	Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x52b552…
10-03 19:11:22	Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xd33096…
10-03 19:11:00	Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x6ba8fc…
10-03 19:10:40	Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xa18283…
10-03 19:10:18	Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0xdd0f0f…
10-03 19:09:58	Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xf25108…
10-03 19:09:35	Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xf732c0…
10-03 19:09:14	Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0xd33a97…
10-03 19:08:50	Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xbacfb2…
10-03 19:08:24	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	54	99¢	$54	0xe1dce1…
10-03 19:07:29	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	101	94¢	$95	0x148c26…
10-03 19:06:09	Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	104	90¢	$94	0xe711d4…
10-01 21:58:15	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	No	SELL	452	99¢	$447	0x792681…
10-01 20:24:45	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xae269f…
10-01 06:56:32	Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,496	88¢	$1,316	0xe89617…
09-30 18:07:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$481	0xe2b61b…
09-30 10:57:09	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	344	98¢	$337	0x2b4079…
09-29 07:25:35	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	SELL	143	94¢	$134	0xac53b7…
09-29 07:24:06	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	SELL	344	89¢	$306	0x6598ca…
09-29 07:22:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	500	78¢	$390	0x42014d…
09-29 07:21:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	85¢	$425	0x9f10fc…
09-29 07:20:50	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	500	87¢	$435	0x71188b…
09-28 09:49:59	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	1,106	91¢	$1,006	0x3fb9ef…
09-28 08:20:53	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xc1749f…
09-27 16:12:56	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xfa389a…
09-27 11:48:50	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x6ce6d8…
09-27 05:53:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0xba563f…
09-27 05:53:30	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	21	91¢	$19	0x5d11fb…
09-27 00:40:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	38	91¢	$35	0xd9f1a7…
09-26 20:19:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	197	96¢	$189	0x9eae9d…
09-26 20:17:57	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	257	96¢	$247	0xb058b4…
09-26 16:16:27	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$3	0x7130c2…
09-26 14:23:33	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$996	0xb5457f…
09-26 12:07:02	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	1,263	94¢	$1,181	0x4dbcb1…
09-26 11:14:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$996	0xb525c0…
09-26 11:01:51	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	750	96¢	$722	0xfb66ee…
09-26 10:46:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1,547	96¢	$1,486	0x5a9e75…
09-26 10:46:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	237	94¢	$222	0x7ba58c…
09-26 10:44:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2,600	96¢	$2,506	0x2816cf…
09-23 22:57:41	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xe43695…
09-21 04:29:30	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x2c930d…
09-20 11:52:37	Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	No	BUY	347	97¢	$338	0xb1a791…
09-19 23:43:42	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xe423d3…
09-19 11:10:57	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$47	0x1ef412…
09-19 11:10:33	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	51	95¢	$48	0x471dec…
09-19 11:10:11	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x1fc00b…
09-19 11:09:41	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0xa18bf8…
09-19 11:08:15	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0xe5cf8c…
09-19 11:07:54	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	58	95¢	$55	0xf22841…
09-18 21:14:27	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	BUY	335	89¢	$298	0x71ca24…
09-18 14:47:55	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xff3104…
09-18 13:03:41	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0xbc488f…
09-16 18:50:39	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	68	95¢	$64	0xf6fed7…
09-16 13:07:16	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x63097f…
09-15 21:46:22	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xbf87e3…
09-15 15:56:37	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xef574e…
09-15 12:27:33	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	80¢	$1,200	0x0a8bf1…
09-15 05:46:43	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x094f8b…
09-15 05:44:28	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc30173…
09-15 05:44:27	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x63ca83…
09-14 19:28:33	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Yes	BUY	295	86¢	$254	0xe3150d…
09-14 11:23:55	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x73bcaa…
09-13 11:23:12	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x363d93…
09-13 02:47:39	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x8dddc0…
09-12 17:11:21	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb22dbb…
09-12 03:17:55	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x4ae068…
09-12 01:50:27	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$3	0x197832…
09-11 11:22:58	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xfbcce2…
09-11 05:02:24	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xefa58a…
09-10 22:57:54	Will US annex any territory in 2026?	No	BUY	143	94¢	$134	0x1549bf…
09-10 10:06:03	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xbd595d…
09-10 09:01:24	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x001d4d…
09-10 08:19:12	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfe81a4…
09-10 08:17:39	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa32338…
09-10 03:16:46	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x5ef687…
09-10 02:27:27	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x82bbfe…
09-10 00:04:24	Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	284	88¢	$250	0x1e4015…
09-09 15:52:03	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xd5ff98…
09-09 08:34:09	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xb9883b…
09-09 05:03:43	Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x70ad80…
09-09 01:04:12	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	84	94¢	$79	0xa2a440…
09-08 22:44:13	Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xea7c0b…
09-08 21:22:06	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels before September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0xed5720…