Measly-Chili — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.1%

Resolved

Trades

4,644

lifetime

Volume

$17.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 07-02 04:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

44% 0% $-13

Other

36% 100% +$1

Sports

10% 100% +$6

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	151	$715	382	382	+0	open	—	03-25 15:05
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	140	$614	350	350	+0	open	—	03-26 05:42
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	116	$412	329	329	+0	open	—	04-13 09:46
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 75m and 100m views in its first 7 days	66	$386	286	286	+0	open	—	02-14 16:12
will the us invade iran by march 31	54	$349	197	197	+0	open	—	03-30 10:10
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	66	$340	190	190	+0	open	—	04-09 14:39
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	46	$310	206	216	-10	open	—	02-17 17:22
netanyahu out by march 31 854	67	$310	165	165	+0	open	—	03-15 14:35
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	71	$280	180	180	-0	open	—	03-17 05:01
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	36	$277	158	158	+0	open	—	02-20 21:02
will travis scott perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	46	$247	175	175	+0	open	—	02-08 11:43
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	50	$222	136	136	+0	open	—	03-08 08:54
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	37	$218	132	132	+0	open	—	01-31 23:54
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	52	$209	132	132	+0	open	—	03-10 21:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	28	$196	130	130	+0	open	—	04-09 14:55
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	59	$187	310	243	+68	open	—	01-30 10:56
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	143	$185	3,884	3,884	+0	open	—	02-06 18:34
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	27	$183	130	110	+20	open	—	01-31 15:25
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	21	$177	97	90	+7	open	—	02-03 02:09
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	20	$164	88	88	+0	open	—	02-04 22:32
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	47	$160	174	164	+10	open	—	02-20 21:03
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	27	$157	100	100	+0	open	—	04-09 11:23
will iran strike israel on march 10	31	$154	79	79	+0	open	—	03-14 00:43
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	16	$149	77	77	+0	open	—	01-31 19:05
will nuevayol be played first at the super bowl halftime show	49	$148	343	333	+10	open	—	02-08 16:48
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	27	$148	105	105	+0	open	—	02-02 05:21
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	26	$147	95	95	+0	open	—	03-23 17:53
will germany strike iran by march 31	32	$146	80	80	+0	open	—	03-04 14:23
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	34	$141	178	158	+20	open	—	02-21 21:42
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	33	$138	150	150	+0	open	—	02-03 17:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 04:15:52	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xc6d665…
07-02 04:14:41	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x8b2d9e…
07-02 04:13:56	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0x52c3a2…
07-02 04:10:23	Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	9¢	$2	0x3c64c5…
07-02 04:04:19	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0x809a57…
07-02 04:03:47	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x7ce8e8…
07-02 04:03:32	flavio bolsonaro charged or arrested by september 30 20260609144215531	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x91eebb…
07-02 04:03:13	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x9a5cc6…
07-01 10:20:32	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x700b13…
07-01 10:20:31	will pete hegseth sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950070	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3b832e…
07-01 10:20:29	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xb5297a…
07-01 10:20:28	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x03430f…
07-01 10:20:25	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xe23d2f…
07-01 10:20:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x8f5362…
07-01 10:20:14	trump meets with putin by september 30	No	SELL	4	89¢	$3	0x04420b…
07-01 10:20:13	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x424c1e…
07-01 10:20:05	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x820389…
07-01 10:20:04	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xe9c0ee…
07-01 10:20:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x93b404…
07-01 10:19:59	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x6959e3…
07-01 10:19:59	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x553ae2…
07-01 10:19:55	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xdcf3e6…
07-01 10:19:52	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x59bb68…
07-01 10:19:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xd36c96…
07-01 10:19:46	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x0fd26c…
07-01 10:19:43	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	23	8¢	$2	0x36b28d…
06-30 12:58:53	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	SELL	1	41¢	$1	0x99e435…
06-29 06:46:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x1e855c…
06-28 09:08:01	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x48938b…
06-28 07:15:34	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x2b5eaa…
06-27 21:54:44	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0xe7b417…
06-27 14:42:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x343604…
06-27 14:34:29	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8d205b…
06-27 06:32:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0x7ab4ff…
06-27 06:25:14	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x35cab4…
06-25 20:09:22	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x3cdb3d…
06-25 18:33:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xe2f262…
06-25 18:24:32	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xf475c0…
06-25 15:34:17	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x5901d8…
06-25 15:25:52	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0xb9926e…
06-25 14:10:46	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by september 30	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5f0f8d…
06-25 14:08:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x6fbcea…
06-25 09:42:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x294d93…
06-25 08:09:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3ee8fc…
06-25 06:38:52	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xb3cf58…
06-25 04:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x8d6125…
06-24 18:36:22	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x4fc973…
06-24 15:36:10	spy closes above 730 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6e63bb…
06-24 15:31:20	spy closes above 725 on june 24 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4cdc9f…
06-24 15:25:52	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xbf1f6a…
06-24 11:02:08	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x49bc73…
06-24 09:40:59	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xa0fa7e…
06-24 09:39:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xfa8391…
06-24 08:12:52	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xa60562…
06-23 22:07:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x9077fd…
06-23 17:37:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4789ae…
06-23 13:27:59	will spy dip to 735 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xab3012…
06-23 12:21:28	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x34b88e…
06-23 06:35:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe2821c…
06-21 17:52:08	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd3afe7…
06-21 16:39:56	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc9c1c2…
06-21 14:51:08	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0xf3e264…
06-21 10:27:52	Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x042836…
06-20 11:11:08	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x930410…
06-19 22:02:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x41431f…
06-19 19:52:07	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x0b5345…
06-19 15:07:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x37b1d3…
06-19 09:31:29	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xa8702c…
06-19 09:20:35	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x6f5d97…
06-19 06:44:20	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x0b31cc…
06-19 00:04:32	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x62f58d…
06-18 17:44:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x29bc22…
06-18 17:10:08	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x1b7fe1…
06-18 16:25:16	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbb9c68…
06-18 14:54:25	fifwc mex kr 2026 06 18 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x11c6d7…
06-18 14:54:20	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x7e882a…
06-18 14:43:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0xd2554f…
06-18 13:06:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x5155d8…
06-18 12:44:07	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3f4653…
06-17 19:50:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2e7f1a…
06-17 18:17:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x3e8fc7…
06-17 18:16:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xcd8c90…
06-17 18:04:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xeb55de…
06-17 17:34:23	will masoud pezeshkian sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950072	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x371ad3…
06-17 17:32:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x5c7972…
06-17 16:57:02	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0x9aafdd…
06-17 16:56:29	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0x77380b…
06-17 16:43:47	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x937506…
06-17 16:16:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x73326c…
06-17 15:20:55	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xfb6806…
06-17 14:38:46	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x2eae13…
06-17 14:09:53	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x592982…
06-17 13:46:19	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	SELL	2	78¢	$2	0x3f248c…
06-17 13:35:13	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xeaf78a…
06-17 13:00:08	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x562cbc…
06-17 13:00:05	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x12fe01…
06-17 10:09:41	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0x163342…
06-17 09:57:34	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xb101a2…
06-17 09:46:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x844565…
06-17 09:23:07	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 30 20260615191216221	No	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x70a928…